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Luca

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Everything posted by Luca

  1. Visually very well but with the rest i agree with this review:
  2. Yeah, apple is an interesting one. I just wonder how much earnings growth we can see the next decade. Services etc are growing fast, emerging markets like india can also be conquered. Combine that with the buybacks and maybe some innovative products, +10% IRR.
  3. Have a look at bill ackman posting on twitter about coke being so dangerous for US citizens due to health problems while holding dominos etc. Maybe he is short again?
  4. Luca

    China

    Also notice the pictures in the video, pictures of hu jintao and also the previous head of ccp. Seems like he respects them still and the old policies grew the country well. Good to see. There has been a good twitter thread about it.
  5. Luca

    China

    Its definitely refreshing. We will see :))
  6. Buffett liked it even a bit higher. My concern is how much innovation they can pull off to gather more market share but one might not even need that. Just growing in the other markets/emerging markets+buybacks should reward you. Services are also growing. What is your thesis longterm? How do you see apples future?
  7. Luca

    China

    Quite the refreshing and positive speach, not so hostile, enjoyed the watch.
  8. 3890 fair Value for S P 500 according to professor damodaran Doesnt look like he expects a recession, estimates would have to be lower then
  9. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm
  10. Good Lord! Its always a shock to see how retarded some people on this planet are. What a joke, clowns fighting a war they dont even completely understand themselves, getting beaten by some random commander in the middle of nowhere. What a waste...
  11. Down -13%, mainly due to China, Baba and Tencent. Sold some Baba at a loss, kept most of it and then switched all china into prosus at latest low, up 60% now with it. Berkshire was the biggest winner, made it a 25% position in 2021 when market got heated.
  12. Yesterday I added to Micron, Meta, TSMC, Amazon, opened a small position on Kering, sold some Berkshire to buy more Alphabet
  13. You wont regret it, incredible chair!
  14. Added to fairfax, still a small position for me
  15. I dont know if there has been a discussion about it yet: What would happen if prem watsa would die? How would impact that the fairfax thesis? are there successors planned already, like with BRK? He could very well live 20 more years but 72 is 72. Just wondering about it
  16. Very interesting, thanks for sharing!
  17. Luca

    China

    I disagree, he is not a straight out playbook communist. They are using all the advantages of markets with a top down approach to sometimes place ressources in underdeveloped segments. we never saw something like this system before. nobody knows how successful it will be. All of that combined with some sort of national/socialistic ideology elements, bit like north korea. The original ,,assignment,, of china being the center of the earth. The game is still playing out, pabrai also said it still might be okay for china investments. Its going to be an interesting decade.
  18. Luca

    China

    China investing triple the amount of the Chips Act for semi development. As i see it this is a straight trade war act from the US trying to impair growth and competition for the global economy. Why cant China order EUV tools from ASML? Because of US national security? Where did china attack the US? The us has been on an imperial move, establishing naval bases all around east asia because of the ,,danger of china,,. Imagine if China establishes naval bases close to US, around the Caribbean. They would get nuked away It is clear that the US fears china as a competitor for global domination. China is on their way to establish themselves in great ways to grow their country, investing in infrastructure all over the world etc. We see chinese imperialism happening every day. The US does the same in every way, maybe they are smarter in hiding it but i dont see big differences. Media biases and what not. Imagine if china opens up to the world, their businesses going global. The S&P 500 wouldnt outperform so hard anymore. Right now we saw how much chinese ETFs crashed. Imagine china producing chips, dram etc with EUV tools. Intel, Micron, AMD would all get severe competition. Amazon vs Alibaba. We have to big nations with huge great tech players. One of these nations is not allowed to play.
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