I agree and I dont get it either. People talking out of both sides of their mouth and its a waste of time.
You hear about impending recessions that the market "just hasnt realized yet" and then in the next breathe complaints that there are no value opportunities because "efficient market theory" has priced everything in.
Humans have bias and naturally want to look for confirmation, reading tea leaves to paint a narrative that they either want...or fear.
Its much less stressful to play the ball as it lays. Take what is presented. To your point, markets are gonna market. These guys should WANT volatility! Why wouldnt you? I dont understand why someone that wasnt say, 5 years from retirement, WANT another recession, and view it as a once in a decade or more OPPURTUNITY to make some serious money. And honestly if you are close to retirement you should be positioned as such anyway, so even then it shouldnt be catastrophic.
The manic Mr Market analogy shouting crazy price offerings. Literally ANY other item goes on ridiculous discount...70" Sony flatscreen TV normally $1500 at the store, you walk buy and they have it on clearance for $100 or a $400 Xbox for $50 because some kid at the store made a mistake with the barcode scanner or read the pricing sheet wrong, nobody would assume the item was junk, they would just quietly fill a cart up and make their way to the checkout line, but when it comes to solid businesses that they have held or are looking to take a position in, they freak out. WHAT $400 XBOX is now worth $50?! I better go home, kick my kid off his game, and throw that thing on Craigslist while I still can!! LOL New BMW on the lot for $5000 anyone? Rolex in the display case for $300?
Philosophically I sometimes think of this like Walt Whitmans writings: "Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself, I am large, I contain multitudes". He is embracing something seen as a shortcoming (seeming unreliable), into a positive. The idea that a person has to adhere to hard principles all the time , but doesnt acknowledge that principles can change. We want consistency all the time or risk appearing weak or unreliable. Whitman says the person who never contradicts himself doesnt think deeply enough or is too simple minded.
Applied to the market. If you are thinking enough, your strategies should change as opportunities present, rather than wishing for (or expecting) slow and steady increases in the market that allow cookie cutter DCF projections, accept, expect, and embrace volatility. Acknowledge that the market doesnt always stick to hard principles and you dont have to either.
Continuing with your analogies, the ship is most safe in the harbor, but thats not what ships are made for. Safe space for investors does not present the best opportunity for investors. AND when you buy solid companies, for instance BRK (obviously) and COST, I think of the WB's analogy, to focus most on picking the right person to marry, and then not worry if you paid a little too much for the ring.
What a horrible way to live, constantly trying to predict things that are nearly impossible, stress when things are good because something MIGHT happen, stress when those fears become REALITY, stress when things happen that you didnt see coming. Just roll with it.