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Trumps crack has a vacancy now.

It was not just the Opium War that ended China’ Golden Age but also the deep corruption at the very top of Chinese ruling class as the ailing emperor gradually lost control to his deeply corrupt grand minister.

The growing tea trade …. And the growing trade deficit as silver moved from west to east.

Thanks John! Cheers!

I am reading this book alongside “Return of the King” by William Dalrymple, who is the host of “Empire” podcast and author of many history books on India Both books that I am reading in parallel are set in the 1840s, the Return of King covers East India Company attempt to install an exiled monarch named Shuja as Shah in Afghanistan. That triggers the Anglo-Afghan Wars that ends with the annihilation of East India Company armies. Twenty years later, the Company itself is gone. The other book set in the same timeframe, covers British attempt to “open up” China under the then rule of Manchu emperors. The trade through Canton was too little for British taste, who wanted more. While the Anglo-Afghan Wars were disastrous, the Opium Wars was anything but. I would highly recommend this book I am a quarter way through it. Here are some excerpts:

100%! He cost his team the game by diving like that. The Swiss were stifling Argentina defensively when they were a man down, and dominating the play when they were even. It might have been a totally different outcome if the Swiss played the whole game intact. Cheers!

Not celebrating it...but I certainly don't feel any tinge of sadness either. Not like when McCain passed, who was one of Graham's close friends, and Trump said the nastiest shit about a real war hero and lifetime statesman. Unlike McCain, Graham would do anything, ANYTHING, to get his agenda passed. As a gay man himself, he tore away rights from LGBTQ...yes, everyone knows Graham is/was gay. I applaud his support for Ukraine...but the man was a walking, talking hypocrite on most other issues! Cheers!

My guess is that if FFH wants to exit without buying the block it will be based on some sort of VWAP so it’s not done all at once and the bank is never at risk. You are correct that those shares would have to be absorbed by the market.

100%

What a great story - and to think that only General Eisenhower and Grandma could dress down the good General !

I agree on 1 and 2. I'm not sure about 3 though.

Joe Biden was a disaster for the middle class. 21% total inflation during his term. During his 2nd year he printed 8% by pouring $1T into an already recovering economy. At the time, it was both controversial and stupid. Then, of course, he let in another 10M or so illegals - driving up rent and housing prices. Joe was no friend of the working class, that's for sure. His administration, unvetted, gave billions to social programs that fleeced American citizens beyond belief - billions stolen through fraud by NGOs, child care scams, education scams, welfare scams, immigration housing scams, etc, etc. NYT loser Paul Krugman and their editorial board kept warning of global recession under Trump - how stupid they look today. The same set of geniuses that missed the Ai boom.

I don't know if real estate is a great use case. In my city there is a 1.5% transfer tax on real estate, and agents get their 6%, so the title stuff is the labor intensive side, but the other costs aren't going anywhere. I think restricted funds (hedge funds, private equity) where the wallet is approved and bypasses the bespoke human stuff is where it makes sense, kind of. But giving me a token for part of a Picasso starts to remind me of NFT nonsense.

How does the counterparty exit their position without putting significant downward pressure on the stock when the TRS is unwound and if Fairfax decides not to purchase the shares?

Parsad you seem like a gentle soul; it's jarring to hear this from you ( or Trump, or anyone). We shouldn't celebrate this.

I know very little about Visser and perhaps am making a snap judgement. However, I once clicked on one of his videos and listened for a few minutes until he said that AI/non-AI stocks should be the new 60/40. I can't offer any comment about token or memory pricing and maybe it has a long way to run as you say, but this does sound close to peak bubble mentality.

Ya I don’t think it’s a bubble either. Blown away each day with how helpful Claude is for my job. Only have the pro subscription for now and annoyingly keep hitting token limits. Could only imagine how much stuff could get done with unlimited tokens. Investment wise I’m just sticking with my mag 7 stocks (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta etc) who I continue to believe will see great payoffs to the large capex spend they are currently putting out. I’ve no edge in chips or memory type stocks so don’t own or plan to buy any of them. But they likely do have good runway ahead of them.

We have a saying around my house, muttered under your breath, in a Bronx accent: " This F-ing guy." That's Visser to me. Because he's making me question some long-held beliefs (formed by spotting past bubbles), which is painful. From this clip, starting around 18:00, with a good graphic at 18:40: Digital demand for tokens can, and will, scale massively; especially as token prices drop. It's also a fact that computer-driven demand can always scale faster than physical supply can grow. Fabs take 2-3 years to build. Token demand is 10X-ing in short order. An eye-opener for me was hearing a dozen guys, 40-70 Y.O., in my men's group, gush about how much they use and love AI. Not a Luddite in the crowd. No complaining about hallucinations. AI is not a bubble. I'm finally getting that though my thick head. Plenty of participants will indeed go bust, but the Samsungs, MU's, NVDA's could still have a long way to run from here. All dependent on the theme that token usage continues to explode. Later in the episode is a good piece about the acceleration that will take place once we can easily use AI on our phones. So, God help me, I'm considering the likes of MU and Samsung AFTER they've gone through the roof. What's the argument against this theory- 1) token demand will explode 2) physical supply to support it will take years 3) memory prices will thus continue to rise faster and stay elevated longer than the market is pricing in.

HaHa! - Absolutely awesome story telling, Charlie [ @dealraker ]!

The "history" or story we most often tell is one of over 60 years ago when General Robert F Sink (Bob, to the family) was at Easter Sunday lunch with all the brothers, their wives, and of course Granny Sink his mother...and majority owner of the newspaper - which in those days made her pretty much his and everybody else in town's commander in chief. Bob, as was the norm, injected "GD" into almost every sentence while not with his mom and he slipped up and used his adjective of choice at the table that day. I was ten years old but clearly remember Granny Sink calmly looking at him - amongst the deadly silence resulting from his inappropriate GD use - and saying, "Bob, you can leave the table now, I'll send for you when I'm ready for you to return." With a sheepish look on his face, while in full general uniform, Bob got up without saying a word and tiptoed away from the table. What Granny Sink as a teetotaler wasn't aware - but all the rest of us at the table were aware - is that Bob and all the boys (his brothers) kept bottles of liquor in the water tanks of the backs of the commodes at her house. I'm quite sure he just visited the bathroom and got a sip or two - smirking with silly enjoyment while waiting for his boss to pardon his punishment. By the way, as a kid and there were many of us, I was only allowed at the main long length dining table because Granny Sink's sister Mattie, a former mayor and city council woman of our town, had Alzheimer's. She'd often drop her false teeth while eating they'd fall under the table and/or her chair. My job sitting next to her was to fetch those teeth!

More free speech. I guess you can insult people in the US but you can’t report on Trump’s government any more: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-administration-subpoenas-new-york-times-reporters-after-air-force-one-reporting-b7f1b368?mod=hp_lista_pos3

The WSJ never predicted negative GDP growth for the US economy to my knowledge. We had a brief contraction of GDP in one quarter when Trump announced his disastrous tariffs. Trump mostly reversed the tariffs so the economy bounced back the subsequent 2 quarters . The current growth rate isn’t too different from what we had during 2023-2024 under Biden. Inflation also picked up a bit. The fiscal deficit remained high too. I think the biggest growth drivers are the AI investment and the big beautiful bill which are actually synergistic (BBB provides tax incentives for Capex ). The AI investment provides about 2/3 of the economic growth if you add it all up. If you are not the AI business, you probably feel closer to being in a recession than an economic boom. Same if you are in the lower K part of the demographic. Stocks went up under a Biden as well, so that’s not a differentiator. .

It’s more about understanding how a bank makes money. They have a capital base and then lend multiples of the capital base. That’s the leverage I’m referring to. It has nothing to do with TRS per se which are fully hedged. They only make money on the difference between the rate they lend at and the rate they borrow at.

This would not surprise me, as I was a straight C student in my econ program. The business world was much more educational I was a very slow learner. I should have been a history major, as your stories about your family and Uncle Sink are far more interesting. Real American success stories.

Cubs, if nothing else you are a fantastic read! Like most "economists" I'm not so sure you've got the benefaction/cause and effect in any form of reality... ...but at least you are consistent. That use of the word consistent is your praise of all things Trump. When do we put Trump in a straight Jacket and sit him restrained in a public place babbling his endless scrambled "plans" that will still sell ads for both wings of media enabling both to keep being profitable? If we could do so so I'll assure you Cubs that the "economy" and whatnot is going to be the same upcycle success---- at least for now.