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Does anyone study George Soros?


muscleman
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I read some of his books. People usually say he is a speculator that is purely lucky. I am not sure if that is true. He trades more frequently than most value investors, and if he is purely luck based, he cannot possibly prosper for such a long time. His worth max draw down in his entire career is only 22% for once, and never exceeded 20% even one more time.

His books are very confusing and I could not understand what his method is. But I doubt it is value investing based because he trades commodities as well.

 

One thing that I truly like in his book is that he said when there is a balanced good news and bad news, usually the market will keep going up. Only when there are only good news will the top be there.

 

I think right now we still have a little bit of bad news from Europe, and probably that is what keeps the market in the bull stage. Also recently Buffet said that he thinks the current market still has many fairly valued stocks. I didn't start learning investing before 2009, so could anyone please tell me if we had a lot of fairly valued stocks in 2007, or everything was quite over valued at that time?

Maybe we will still have 1-2 more years of bull market? ;)

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Copying Soros required a couple more dozen IQ points I don't possess.

 

Learning about his and Druckenmiller's currency trades to be fascinating.  Rogers sounded like he did loads of analysis. Constantly reading trade journals and the such for ideas.

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I didn't start learning investing before 2009, so could anyone please tell me if we had a lot of fairly valued stocks in 2007, or everything was quite over valued at that time?

 

2007-2008 was a fascinating time in the market. There was huge, very fast sectoral rotation. Financials were hammered from capital losses and raising equity. Speculative commodity prices and producer valuations collapsed. Retailers and consumer goods posted operating losses from declines in discretionary spending.

 

The market P/E was only around 17 in 2007. There were certainly opportunities, if you understood what types of companies had a risk of permanent loss, as opposed to temporary loss.

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I read a couple of book about George Soros. His theory is very well suit to explain behavior of the market .  The fair value or economics equilibrium cannot be reached due to market participants. This can example every market that human participate in.  Stock market tends to overshoot or undershoot fair value almost every time.  Bull market drives valuation to skyhigh level because everyone feared of being dump not to make money. And Bear market is just the opposite.    But every market correct itself and turns the corner by a behavior such as IPOs  or too much capacity expansion. 

 

I feel that the way Soros views the world is more or less similar to Charlie Munger when I read Poor Charlie's Almanack.  Both are super smart guys that pursuit different way of life but they share some similar trait and similar "mental models"

 

 

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Guest wellmont

these great macro traders who trade on 3 dimensional chess boards are really kind of freaks of nature.  soros was just born to trade, born to see the world in a certain way. for example he presses his bets, which is counter intuitive for value investors. if soros sees a trade coming together as the price rises he will buy even more and make it a big position. value investors usually take money off the table when prices rise, even as things are working out exactly how they expected them to. Buffett tends not to increase his bets as things get better. But he does stay with things when other investors won't (ko wpo wfc). And that has impacted his net worth favorably.

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