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Posted
5 hours ago, buylowersellhigh said:

I have been wanting to buy cement, aggregates for a while, too.  Any thoughts on others like MLM, EXP, CRH, etc.? Which ones may be cheaper/better?

I prefer the companies which have more of a focus on aggregates which is VMC / MLM. The others are potentially good businesses too but there's more pricing power in aggregates even in down markets (pricing was being raised through the financial crisis even as volumes plummeted). In my mind both VMC + MLM great companies but I prefer VMC because it is more singularly focused on aggregates and I think is well-run based on some prior work I did at a consulting firm (not for them). 

Posted (edited)

Hopefully! I'd happily dip a toe back into Nintendo at 8000 Yens.

 

Bought some Amazon on Friday for 3.1% of my net worth. Hoping to get more at $185 which would be a forward EV/EBITDA of 12. Maybe I'm delulu after 15 years of mega cap US tech crushing everything else but I find big tech cheap right now, especially Alphabet, so buying the dip seems like a no brainer.

 

 

 

Screenshot 2025-03-08 at 3.10.48 PM.png

Edited by WayWardCloud
Posted
1 minute ago, WayWardCloud said:

Hopefully! I'd happily dip a toe back into Nintendo at 8000 Yens.

 

Bought some Amazon on Friday for 3.1% of my net worth. Hoping to get more at $185 which would be a forward EV/EBITDA of 12. Maybe I'm delulu after 15 years of mega cap US tech crushing everything else but I find big tech cheap right now, especially Alphabet.

 

 

 

Screenshot 2025-03-08 at 3.10.48 PM.png

Anything possible and Nintendo has a history of being very erratic, trading wise. Production update next month could be a catalyst either way. 
 

And watch those corporate bonds…gonna get smoked when rates go down!

Posted (edited)

 

Yep. Japanese equities in general seem to have a mind of their own and I actually love how decorrelated from other markets and sometimes from any kind of logic they are, it makes them a great portfolio diversificator.

 

Thanks for the advice Gregmal!

Wouldn't my bonds rise in value as their rates go lower?

 

 

Screenshot 2025-03-08 at 3.18.44 PM.png

Edited by WayWardCloud
Posted
1 minute ago, WayWardCloud said:

 

Thanks for the advice Greg!

Wouldn't my bonds rise in value as their rates go lower

They do and they will. Was just being sarcastic in reference to the “bonds” thread. Corporates already have been outperforming and should continue to do so. We re always bewildered about why things that seem unconventional occur until they do and then going forward they are said to have been obvious. 

Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

They do and they will. Was just being sarcastic in reference to the “bonds” thread. Corporates already have been outperforming and should continue to do so. We re always bewildered about why things that seem unconventional occur until they do and then going forward they are said to have been obvious. 

Ah! It's hard to get the tone of a written post sometimes.

I just opened the bonds threads for the first time ever and read the last 3 pages.

Now I need an ibuprofen, why would you do this to me 😅 Happy Saturday!

Edited by WayWardCloud
Posted
1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

They do and they will. Was just being sarcastic in reference to the “bonds” thread. Corporates already have been outperforming and should continue to do so. We re always bewildered about why things that seem unconventional occur until they do and then going forward they are said to have been obvious. 


being the basic bitch that I am, I will

continue to be bewildered at liking corporate credit at these spread levels.

 

And will continue to expect spreads to widen into any meaningful risk event in markets. 

 

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, thepupil said:


being the basic bitch that I am, I will

continue to be bewildered at liking corporate credit at these spread levels.

 

And will continue to expect spreads to widen into any meaningful risk event in markets. 

 

 

LOL y'all can argue over who gets to star in The Big Short 2 with the spreads and all that, I just wanna make money when rates inevitably come down. With that, it's Treasuries vs Corporates. I ask myself one question, not based on what caused prior crashes and all that, but what's likely going forward. And that is, based on how at least half the market(and most of EU/51st state/high society finance folks) have seizures whenever Orange Man open mouth....what happens if Trump threatens to default on paper held by China(or insert name)...or even, what if he just keeps playing games that influence volatility of government bonds in general...would I consider Apple, Meta, Microsoft, etc more credit worthy than the US government? I absolutely would. 

Posted

Fair enough. You are free to take that view.


I think you have a real gift in turning someone’s opposing view into a very weird kind of straw man. I often find myself not really wanting to argue with your views so much as your portrayal of my own.
 

But it’s Saturday night…enjoy that sweet sweet additional 50 bps of pre tax carry.

Posted
39 minutes ago, thepupil said:

Fair enough. You are free to take that view.


I think you have a real gift in turning someone’s opposing view into a very weird kind of straw man. I often find myself not really wanting to argue with your views so much as your portrayal of my own.
 

But it’s Saturday night…enjoy that sweet sweet additional 50 bps of pre tax carry.

Well I have many gifts and many curses so all we can do is enjoy our Saturday nights lol. Cheers 

Posted

More MGM..this time Jan'26 $40 calls. That's quadruple from my starter position last week. The setup looks very favorable. But I was sitting on 23% cash last week and down to 18% this week.

 

More Prosus.

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