giofranchi Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 One final thought, these threads are a great example of self-selection bias. There might be 50 or 100 posts of returns but the view counter will be in the thousands. I realize people re-read the thread boosting the counter, but there are also a LOT of people reading who never post, I wonder what their returns are…. yes, this is one of my concerns as well--hopefully, given that it is an anonymous poll, most (maybe all!) will respond, even if they don't post anything. Well, if you have read the Tepper thread, you already know my dismal return for 2012 all too well…!! And I have just had another thought... a sad, but glaring truth: this board is full of people who don’t talk (I mean, who write and post very seldom), but prefer instead to make a ton of money! Vice versa, it seems that I like to talk A LOT… and leave all the money to them!! ;D ;D ;D giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Last year -34% This year - up 38% Net down over the last two years. This year I focused on avoiding mistakes more than anything else. The only new holding this year was AIG- tx Plan Maestro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopinath Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 ~48% - because of 2 reasonably big positions OSTK & BAC (got lucky on the timing on price). This year's relative performance is the best in last few years. 2008 - (-32%) 2009 - 55% 2010 - 24% 2011 - (-10%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 +26% Dozens of positions. No position started at larger than ~1% of portfolio. I invest like my investing idols, Graham and Schloss. I buy when things are very cheap and sell when they reach IV. Cash never less than ~30%. No leverage. Fantastic results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 +200% in 2012 mostly leveraged BAC, some leveraged AIG. This should give you reason to not feel bad when you get those inevitable 40-50% drops :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The 10-yr returns are about 27% with mistakes which I find incredible. Packer Fantastic returns. On topic, I had taken huge position in BAC warrants in lower 2's so returns should be satisfactory. I had picked up decent size AIG warrants around 5-6 as well. Need to calculate returns for whole portfolio but one year returns are not very meaningful( unless it is Ericopolly :) ) It's really incredible. With number of unforced errors I make, I would have been dead in any any other field. I am going to try to minimize my unforced errors in future( Number one goal for me). Any thoughts to do it well is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I could use a couple myself. I'd have to do 200% 7 years in a row to be a Billionaire. Difficult, but they say the first $Billion is the hardest. It will be incredible if we ever get 1-2 billionaires in based on portfolio returns who are posting here. Well, 7 years in a row - 200% is kinda tough :). But how about making it over few decades? I will feel very happy if we have billionaires among us in future who started with very little. Now, no one should come after me for this billionaire talk. All in good jest and also I didn't start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 About 94% for me in 2012. I was about -18% in 2011, so I'm quite happy to have made that up in 2012. As with most other folks, AIG and BAC exposure really made the huge difference. RIM, CLWR, and SHLD together had a material affect on my portfolio as well. MBIA has been a drag on my portfolio, though. Hope it works out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lethean46 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 From high in the bleacher stands. :-) A great BIG thank you to the board. +19% (XIRR) for 2012 over four personal accounts. My portfolios are highly concentrated in BRKB, roughly 75%. I delegate to WEB. :-) Other positions: AIG, AXP, BAC, BYDDY, FRFHF, GS, USG, and WFC. I added AIG and BAC to the mix last year. Thank you. I am very pleased with the 2012 return. I'm also thrilled to have finally learned how to use XIRR in Excel. I'm working on the last 3 years and eventually hope to go back to 1999 when I took control of the accounts and pulled the trigger on my first BRKB buy. So far, it looks like this: 20% (XIRR) for 2010. I have yet to finish entry for one account. -4% (XIRR) for 2011. I have yet to finish entry for one account. War stories to tell. I bought USG with Marty Whitman at $15. Bought more with WEB at $17 and $20? Rode it up to $30? and then rode it down to $2 buying more shares on the way down. Froze at the bottom. Bought USG bonds at $75 when the common hit $2 or so. Bonds worked out great. They were redeemed at par and paid all accrued interest. Then rode 4000 shares up to $76 and didn't sell a single share! And then, rode the common down to $2, again! - selling shares on the way down. I still hold some shares with cost basis $2+ and $7 and $11 in Taxable acct and $46 in RO/IRA (rights issue.) Whew. BYDDY is 1% of portfolios bought at 3 different times. Underwater. Again, I froze at the bottom. But this is a long term hold. I hope Parsad is right and that this is Mohnish's secret personal holding. That'd be nice! AIG and BAC are in tax deferred accounts - all ready for dividends. :-) Highlights and lowlights ... Thanks again. ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 TxLaw, You rule!!! Congratulations on a Big Year! That is pretty awesome! Brker_guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I have no idea what my returns were for the year. 2012 was my first year with a job and investing. My assets grew by ~2x just by saving money. This made some positions I initiated earlier in the year very small by year end. Most of my trades I was happy with and I don't believe I took an impairment of capital over the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Overall +18.4% -- can't complain, but disappointed I didn't add BAC at $6.00! Last four years avg 22%. Still learning and appreciate everyone's input on this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 About 94% for me in 2012. As if one ERICOPOLY weren't enough...!! ;D racemize, why have you started this thread?! To make me suffer like hell??!! ;D ;D PS txlaw, just joking! And congratulations!! ;) giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 About 94% for me in 2012. As if one ERICOPOLY weren't enough...!! ;D racemize, why have you started this thread?! To make me suffer like hell??!! ;D ;D PS txlaw, just joking! And congratulations!! ;) giofranchi hey, I started the other thread for compounding returns! You can blame rkk for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodlum Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Over 50% in my registered account. Tough to calculate on my margin and TFSA account but would be much greater due to MSFT Calls earlier this year. I would estimate over 70%. Average of 30% over past 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 About 94% for me in 2012. As if one ERICOPOLY weren't enough...!! ;D racemize, why have you started this thread?! To make me suffer like hell??!! ;D ;D PS txlaw, just joking! And congratulations!! ;) giofranchi hey, I started the other thread for compounding returns! You can blame rkk for this one! Opps...! You are right... Sorry! :) giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 +15% >50% cash most of the year.... top gainers: brk, aig, bac, jef, usg, salm, crbc, osk and a long list of special situations/mergers top losers: spy short (hedge), rimm, fbod regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 +15% >50% cash most of the year.... top gainers: brk, aig, bac, jef, usg, salm, crbc, osk and a long list of special situations/mergers top losers: spy short (hedge), rimm, fbod regards rijk Congratulations! Very solid returns, running practically no risk! I like it very much! giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txitxo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Mechanical value screens: ~+21%, including dividends, similar to an index of European small caps. FFH: Managed to average down quite a bit, but still down by ~ -3%. Bestinver funds: ~+16% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobp Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Forget 2012. I'm up 3% for 2013! If I can just do 3% a day............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infinitee00 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I am unclear on how to actually measure performance because I just add money to my account when I want to buy a stock. I had a 5k roth IRA and added 5k to it over the course of this year. So if I pretend my starting value was 10k essentially I ended up holding 90% cash for half the year, and only increased my position in late fall, and now I'm at 25% cash. So overall my annual return is 7%. If there is a better way to calculate performance, please let me know......:) Hi Palantir, I have been measuring my performance since 2010 using a spreadsheet on google docs - the template for which is attached below. There are probably better and less cumbersome ways to measure portfolio performance but this is what works for me and I haven't tried anything else, probably a lot due to inertia :-) I measure my portfolio NAV every week ( typically on Saturday/Sunday), but one can measure it every day or month or whatever duration they want to do it for. The method should still hold. This is how you can use the spreadsheet: To get started, import this spreadsheet template to your own google drive account ( I am assuming you have one). Enter the date from which you want to start tracking your portfolio in cell 'A4' and enter the *TOTAL* value of all your equities - i.e. stocks, bonds, ETFs, options etc ( I typically enter the value of all my securities after Friday's market close) excluding cash in cell 'C4'. Most brokerages will give you the total value of your equity holdings and cash separately on their statements so you can easily get the values. If you have more than one brokerage account ( as I do), add the total closing market value of all your investments (excluding cash) in all your brokerage accounts on that date, in cell 'C4'. Add the total cash in all your brokerage accounts in the cash column ( start with cell D4) The number of units you decide to start your portfolio with is arbitrary but once you choose that number, it cannot be changed manually during the lifetime of the portfolio unless you are adding/withdrawing cash. When you add/withdraw cash, enter it into column E and the spreadsheet should be able to calculate the new total # of units (i.e. total units after the addition/withdrawal of cash). I typically add cash to my portfolio on Fridays ( although not every Friday) to avoid complicating my spreadsheet, but even if you were to add it in the middle of the week the effect on portfolio performance should be minimal, if done consistently. In order to add a row next week, just copy the previous row from the previous week. Keep recording the total market value of your equities and total cash at the end of day/week/month. Only fields shaded yellow need user input. I measure my portfolio's performance against two ETFs/Index funds - one tracking the S&P500 and the other the Russell 5000 ( SPY and IWM) but you can choose any other benchmark. I typically just look up the closing price of the ETFs or Index funds from google/yahoo finance and enter the value manually every weekend. Measuring portfolio performance using this spreadsheet becomes quite easy once you have it setup. You can also modify this spreadsheet and add a column for IRR to get your annualized compounded return rate. An explanation of the method of tracking portfolio performance above is given in this example: http://www.fool.com/foolfaq/foolfaq0056.htm I am not sure if this is what you were looking for hope this helps. If you have any questions/comments/suggestions feel free to pm me. Portfolio_Performance_Template.xlsx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 +15% >50% cash most of the year.... top gainers: brk, aig, bac, jef, usg, salm, crbc, osk and a long list of special situations/mergers top losers: spy short (hedge), rimm, fbod regards rijk Congratulations! Very solid returns, running practically no risk! I like it very much! giofranchi thanks gio... as long as klarman/watsa/rodriguez are happy with low single digit returns just to protect their capital, i am going to be very cautious, with all the protection i build into my portfolio, i am extremely pleased to (just) beat the market..... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I am not sure if this is what you were looking for hope this helps. If you have any questions/comments/suggestions feel free to pm me. Awesome spreadsheet, I'll definitely take a look at it, although I will need to annotate month end values as I go along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infinitee00 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Wow !! Congratulations Guys!! Posts like this make me embarrassed and apprehensive at the same time. Embarrassed because my results are much more mediocre than I initially thought (29% with an average of 37% cash. I have >50% in top 10 positions including ~20% in TARP warrants/LEAPS. I also have ~5% short) and apprehensive because for me mediocre returns generally follow one or two years of better-than-expected returns! I would say luck/timing had more to do with my 2012 performance than skill. I did sell a large position this year after holding it for 4 years and have not been able to deploy the cash effectively as the best equities on my watch list also ran up in price. I hope to be able to shake off my 'anchoring bias' and deploy cash effectively in 2013 ! A few observations on this post that I found interesting was that after 135 votes the poll results show a classic normal distribution curve. Although, I don't have access to the numbers and the granularity seems coarse, I suspect that the median returns would be very close to the returns of the S&P500. I also noticed that only a few members who posted their results here manage OPM ( at least that's my impression although I understand that there may be legal reasons money managers do not want to post their results on a message board).It would've been nice to know the returns for managers managing in excess of $1M and how have they positioned their portfolios for the next few years ( I am guessing BAC, BAC-WT is probably in a lot of portfolios). Regarding the portfolio returns, I cannot help but wonder how many members measure their returns consistently and accurately ( I have doubts about mine too..see my reply to Palantir). e.g. I have a friend who measured his performance for years, without accounting for cash. I am sure such 'n00b' accounting mistakes are uncommon amongst experienced board members, but given that a lot of members have their investments spread across a few different types of accounts( taxable/tax-deferred etc), I cannot help but wonder the methodology used to calculate each return rate posted on this post. Notwithstanding that, I think the returns posted by some members are phenomenal. This speaks a lot about the quality of investors on this board. Congrats again guys for an exceptional year !! For those who are unhappy about under performing the S&P, remember the Zen saying " This too shall pass" !! :) I am sure you guys will bounce back with great results in the years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Regarding the portfolio returns, I cannot help but wonder how many members measure their returns consistently and accurately ( I have doubts about mine too..see my reply to Palantir). e.g. I have a friend who measured his performance for years, without accounting for cash. I am sure such 'n00b' accounting mistakes are uncommon amongst experienced board members, but given that a lot of members have their investments spread across a few different types of accounts( taxable/tax-deferred etc), I cannot help but wonder the methodology used to calculate each return rate posted on this post. I imagine most people get it largely right. That being said, I just had to correct a fellow investor to include taxes as an inflow for their IRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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