txlaw Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 The only reason I didn't own any AIG up until now is because I was trying to time a shift of capital to AIG after BAC and MBI "worked out." Was trying to do the same here with other stocks, waiting to put it all in AIG and BAC when they cashed out. Investing is a game of regrets, balancing what and when to buy and sell. If I did not buy BAC and AIG at those prices, and many in this board probably thought the same, and they run afterwards, as it happened, I would have kicked myself for eternity. Plan, added your blog to my RSS feed, btw. Keep it up.
maxthetrade Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW, Grundlach doesn't seem to like BAC: "Sell Bank of America. Sell it today. And sell it at the market open. This was the message from Jeff Gundlach last night when he gave his presentation titled "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jeff-Gundlach-SELL-BANK-OF-siliconalley-4185030779.html?x=0
Grenville Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Directors continue to buy: Donald Powell 18,000 shares at ~ $8 2/7/12 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000122520812003320/xslF345X03/doc4.xml Other recent purchases by Powell: 10,000 ~ 7.95 2/14/12 10,000 ~ 7.7 2/3/12 7,000 ~ 7.25 1/26/12
Kraven Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW, Grundlach doesn't seem to like BAC: "Sell Bank of America. Sell it today. And sell it at the market open. This was the message from Jeff Gundlach last night when he gave his presentation titled "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jeff-Gundlach-SELL-BANK-OF-siliconalley-4185030779.html?x=0 Did he give his reasoning? Or is he just talking his book (i.e. buy his funds, not some individual security)? Gundlach is a very smart guy though. He is out there of course as anyone who knows about his "divorce" from TCW is aware. He has his personal quirks (that's putting it mildly). But he is an independent thinker and you really can't find a smarter guy. I wouldn't immediately dismiss a thougtful argument from him. I'm just wondering if in this case, there is a well thought out argument or just "raising funds".
ERICOPOLY Posted February 15, 2012 Author Posted February 15, 2012 I moved up the strikes on my in-the-money calls in light of a few considerations. Now there's still 100% notional upside but a lot less on the downside.
enoch01 Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 And hopefully Gundlach's prediction of a drop in the S&P to 500 will come true as well (1 year left): http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254.html#articleTabs_article%3D0
AZ_Value Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I moved up the strikes on my in-the-money calls in light of a few considerations. Eric, What considerations if you don't mind us asking? Any new considerations that you didn't have this past fall when the stock was being crushed down to $5 or less? Or is it that you just want to be more careful given that you have so much of your money in BAC? Thanks.
matjone Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 And hopefully Gundlach's prediction of a drop in the S&P to 500 will come true as well (1 year left): http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254.html#articleTabs_article%3D0 S&p earnings are currently about $87 according to Shiller's site. I guess anything can happen if panic sets in but it seems unlikely.
ERICOPOLY Posted February 15, 2012 Author Posted February 15, 2012 I moved up the strikes on my in-the-money calls in light of a few considerations. Eric, What considerations if you don't mind us asking? Any new considerations that you didn't have this past fall when the stock was being crushed down to $5 or less? Or is it that you just want to be more careful given that you have so much of your money in BAC? Thanks. Losing my confidence that we won't get a recession. In the case of a recession, there will be cheap stocks all over the place. So just increasing flexibility. That's the primary consideration.
hyten1 Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 eric i admire your usage of options i have very limited knowledge of option or use it much. hy
benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I moved up the strikes on my in-the-money calls in light of a few considerations. Now there's still 100% notional upside but a lot less on the downside. Eric, Can you give an example on how do you 'move up'? or is there any pointers on the net that gives examples on how to change/swap options? I'm a newbie on options. thanks.
ERICOPOLY Posted February 15, 2012 Author Posted February 15, 2012 I moved up the strikes on my in-the-money calls in light of a few considerations. Now there's still 100% notional upside but a lot less on the downside. Eric, Can you give an example on how do you 'move up'? or is there any pointers on the net that gives examples on how to change/swap options? I'm a newbie on options. thanks. I had a lot of $3,$4,$5 strike in RothIRA that I sold and replaced with $7 strike. Then in taxable account I bought $7 strike calls and hedged existing positions by writing $2 strike calls.
bmichaud Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-15/paulson-says-euro-will-probably-unravel.html Will be interesting to see if all the HFs out there reducing risk (however that may be defined) and not loading up on BAC will end up being right over time. A lot of the HF selling of financials over the last six months of 2011 was due to concern over the Euro - were those funds the "crowd" that overreacted or will they end up living up to their "smart money" name over time?
AZ_Value Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I personally never bought Paulson's story. I remember reading "The Greatest Trade" and thinking "Why am I reading about some dude who apparently couldn't keep a job and seemed to be engaging in merger arbitrage trades he didn't understand while partying with people 10-15 years younger than him in the Hamptons?" No comparison to Mike Burry who was a value guy to start with and his CDS home run came after reading thousands and thousands of pages of MBS prospectus at a time nobody was doing it. The CDS coup was a lucky stroke for Paulson and now we are watching him revert to his mean. And as far as I'm concerned all he is doing is making market calls and buying gold right now. Heck, by now we know he is Mr. Market, he was selling BAC to us for 5 bucks or below.
Parsad Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I personally never bought Paulson's story. I remember reading "The Greatest Trade" and thinking "Why am I reading about some dude who apparently couldn't keep a job and seemed to be engaging in merger arbitrage trades he didn't understand while partying with people 10-15 years younger than him in the Hamptons?" No comparison to Mike Burry who was a value guy to start with and his CDS home run came after reading thousands and thousands of pages of MBS prospectus at a time nobody was doing it. The CDS coup was a lucky stroke for Paulson and now we are watching him revert to his mean. And as far as I'm concerned all he is doing is making market calls and buying gold right now. Heck, by now we know he is Mr. Market, he was selling BAC to us for 5 bucks or below. +1! Cheers!
Guest Hester Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I personally never bought Paulson's story. I remember reading "The Greatest Trade" and thinking "Why am I reading about some dude who apparently couldn't keep a job and seemed to be engaging in merger arbitrage trades he didn't understand while partying with people 10-15 years younger than him in the Hamptons?" No comparison to Mike Burry who was a value guy to start with and his CDS home run came after reading thousands and thousands of pages of MBS prospectus at a time nobody was doing it. The CDS coup was a lucky stroke for Paulson and now we are watching him revert to his mean. And as far as I'm concerned all he is doing is making market calls and buying gold right now. Heck, by now we know he is Mr. Market, he was selling BAC to us for 5 bucks or below. +1! Cheers! I'm starting to come to this conclusion as well.
Liberty Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I personally never bought Paulson's story. I remember reading "The Greatest Trade" and thinking "Why am I reading about some dude who apparently couldn't keep a job and seemed to be engaging in merger arbitrage trades he didn't understand while partying with people 10-15 years younger than him in the Hamptons?" No comparison to Mike Burry who was a value guy to start with and his CDS home run came after reading thousands and thousands of pages of MBS prospectus at a time nobody was doing it. The CDS coup was a lucky stroke for Paulson and now we are watching him revert to his mean. And as far as I'm concerned all he is doing is making market calls and buying gold right now. Heck, by now we know he is Mr. Market, he was selling BAC to us for 5 bucks or below. +1! Cheers! I'm starting to come to this conclusion as well. Me too. I don't think it was entirely luck... but a lot of it was because of his analyst (I forget his name) who came up with the idea of the trade and pushed hard for it. After that, it was probably hard to actually execute and stick with it until it actually started working, so he deserves credit for that, but not much more.
bmichaud Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I personally never bought Paulson's story. I remember reading "The Greatest Trade" and thinking "Why am I reading about some dude who apparently couldn't keep a job and seemed to be engaging in merger arbitrage trades he didn't understand while partying with people 10-15 years younger than him in the Hamptons?" No comparison to Mike Burry who was a value guy to start with and his CDS home run came after reading thousands and thousands of pages of MBS prospectus at a time nobody was doing it. The CDS coup was a lucky stroke for Paulson and now we are watching him revert to his mean. And as far as I'm concerned all he is doing is making market calls and buying gold right now. Heck, by now we know he is Mr. Market, he was selling BAC to us for 5 bucks or below. Agreed. Starting to think HFs are more of a contrarian indicator than anything. I read a great quote today by Ned Davis that does a superb job of explaining how group think like that of Paulson almost never works: The market will usually do what it needs to do to prove a crowd extreme wrong.
enoch01 Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 The CDS coup was a lucky stroke for Paulson and now we are watching him revert to his mean. And as far as I'm concerned all he is doing is making market calls and buying gold right now. Heck, by now we know he is Mr. Market, he was selling BAC to us for 5 bucks or below. Careful everyone. As Paulson said in his FCIC testimony "we're pretty much experts in financials" [39:45].
moore_capital54 Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 We see absolutely no reason to take any BAC off the table, fundamentally the situation continues to improve if anything we may even add to our position on this pullback. The next event to look forward to is the stress test, and possibly guidance on dividend or buybacks. I don't see any chance of a US recession when Bernanke has his hand on the trigger of another round of QE targeted at MBS. The smart money is buying nonrated MBS as we speak, including Kyle Bass. These are gonna rock and roll when the fed buys agency MBS with newly created money. That will also mark the housing bottom as we know it. This pullback should it continue, presents a fantastic averaging up opportunity.
ERICOPOLY Posted February 15, 2012 Author Posted February 15, 2012 I moved up the strikes on my in-the-money calls in light of a few considerations. Now there's still 100% notional upside but a lot less on the downside. Looks like the price started to dive about 30 minutes after I had posted this. Spidey senses. PS: Hopefully the joke is apparent about a 3.7% pullback (pretty small). Just funny timing. And I'm already cruising the options pages of MBI and others to see where I can write puts to pay for the BAC $7 calls. Any kind of volatility increase will be most helpful.
Grenville Posted February 16, 2012 Posted February 16, 2012 Nice story about BAC donating a building to a charter school in Wilmington, Delaware. http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20120216/BUSINESS05/120216016/Bank-America-hire-500-donate-building-charter-schools?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|Home
moore_capital54 Posted February 16, 2012 Posted February 16, 2012 Honestly, Eric I don't understand why you hedged the position out, you were merely reacting to volatility imho.
ERICOPOLY Posted February 16, 2012 Author Posted February 16, 2012 Honestly, Eric I don't understand why you hedged the position out, you were merely reacting to volatility imho. Yes, I was just blowing off steam. I woke up this morning and bought common shares. I like the new position more , so it's all for the better. Seriously, the pressure was just building and now I feel relieved having "done something". All psychology.
Rabbitisrich Posted February 16, 2012 Posted February 16, 2012 Has anyone confirmed with their accountant that common stock adjustment of the warrants results in a taxable gain on the year of adjustment?
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