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Tilson interviewed by Steve Forbes (Video)


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  • 1 year later...

Here's the latest Tilson / Forbes interview (from end-June.....sorry if it's been posted already).

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/06/27/whitney-tilson-wisdom-on-value-artists-like-buffett-and-klarman/

 

From this I'd highlight the following:

 

Forbes: You’re going to bite out of Apple?

Tilson: Are asking do I own Apple stock? I do. I got back into it just before they reported earnings a few weeks ago, a little under $400 a share. Added a little more after earnings. My feeling about Apple is: I’m not sure what to think about it long term, but I think it’s likely to do well in the next six monthsor so simply because I think they’re in a new product launch.

 

And later he talks about JC Penney.....

 

Tilson: I actually am back in it just in the past month or so......I think the stock is a quick ride into the mid-$20s. And then again, then I’ll have to decide if I believe in the long-term turnaround or not.

 

And then the interview ends with this:

 

Forbes: Finally, what’s the best money advice you ever got?

Tilson: I would say Warren Buffett, years and years ago (he’s repeated this many times when he meets with students) has always said, “The best way to think about investing is you’re coming out of business school or you’re coming out of college now. And you have a card, and it has 20 punches. And every time you make one

investment, you have to punch that card, and that’s all you get for your whole life. Not for the month, not for the year. That’s your life. You can make 20 investments.”

 

20 punches, eh??  ::)

 

 

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Here's the latest Tilson / Forbes interview (from end-June.....sorry if it's been posted already).

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/06/27/whitney-tilson-wisdom-on-value-artists-like-buffett-and-klarman/

 

From this I'd highlight the following:

 

Forbes: You’re going to bite out of Apple?

Tilson: Are asking do I own Apple stock? I do. I got back into it just before they reported earnings a few weeks ago, a little under $400 a share. Added a little more after earnings. My feeling about Apple is: I’m not sure what to think about it long term, but I think it’s likely to do well in the next six monthsor so simply because I think they’re in a new product launch.

 

And later he talks about JC Penney.....

 

Tilson: I actually am back in it just in the past month or so......I think the stock is a quick ride into the mid-$20s. And then again, then I’ll have to decide if I believe in the long-term turnaround or not.

 

And then the interview ends with this:

 

Forbes: Finally, what’s the best money advice you ever got?

Tilson: I would say Warren Buffett, years and years ago (he’s repeated this many times when he meets with students) has always said, “The best way to think about investing is you’re coming out of business school or you’re coming out of college now. And you have a card, and it has 20 punches. And every time you make one

investment, you have to punch that card, and that’s all you get for your whole life. Not for the month, not for the year. That’s your life. You can make 20 investments.”

 

20 punches, eh??  ::)

 

Absurd to think that guys like these can find millions of dollars to run year after year even after lackluster results.

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Jeez, apparently Harvard doesnt require it's grad students to take a basic logic course.

Embarrassing the guy graduated the top 5% of his class.

Either that or his brain has turned to mush.

If he wants to speculate and short term trade that's fine but he sounds like an ass quoting Buffett the next  paragraph.

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Maybe he should just continue to be the face of the firm and get someone else to do the stock picking.  I think value investing the graham and dodd way and selling are activities that require personalities that are opposite each other.  The good salesman I've known loved being around people, loved being the center of attention, and a lot of times were a little overconfident, while a lot of good investors that I know are more reclusive and cautious types.

 

On the other hand, maybe if he keeps at it he'll improve and eventually get better returns. 

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Here's the latest Tilson / Forbes interview (from end-June.....sorry if it's been posted already).

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/06/27/whitney-tilson-wisdom-on-value-artists-like-buffett-and-klarman/

 

From this I'd highlight the following:

 

Forbes: You’re going to bite out of Apple?

Tilson: Are asking do I own Apple stock? I do. I got back into it just before they reported earnings a few weeks ago, a little under $400 a share. Added a little more after earnings. My feeling about Apple is: I’m not sure what to think about it long term, but I think it’s likely to do well in the next six monthsor so simply because I think they’re in a new product launch.

 

And later he talks about JC Penney.....

 

Tilson: I actually am back in it just in the past month or so......I think the stock is a quick ride into the mid-$20s. And then again, then I’ll have to decide if I believe in the long-term turnaround or not.

 

And then the interview ends with this:

 

Forbes: Finally, what’s the best money advice you ever got?

Tilson: I would say Warren Buffett, years and years ago (he’s repeated this many times when he meets with students) has always said, “The best way to think about investing is you’re coming out of business school or you’re coming out of college now. And you have a card, and it has 20 punches. And every time you make one

investment, you have to punch that card, and that’s all you get for your whole life. Not for the month, not for the year. That’s your life. You can make 20 investments.”

 

20 punches, eh??  ::)

 

Hahaha! Post of the week

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I think his return is reasonable, no ?

 

Maybe he should just continue to be the face of the firm and get someone else to do the stock picking.  I think value investing the graham and dodd way and selling are activities that require personalities that are opposite each other.  The good salesman I've known loved being around people, loved being the center of attention, and a lot of times were a little overconfident, while a lot of good investors that I know are more reclusive and cautious types.

 

On the other hand, maybe if he keeps at it he'll improve and eventually get better returns.

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Care to guess how many times Buffett has punched his card?  Saying things in an interview as a public figure is fraught with peril.  Almost anyone can be quoted arguing against themselves, even Buffett.

 

You're totally right.

 

But 20 punches is a mindset approach.  In my view, it's not about "a quick ride into the mid-$20s" while admitting you have no feel for the long term proposition.  That could possibly be described as anti-momentum investing, seeking out stuff that's recently fallen from popularity.  And good luck to Tilson, maybe he's right to pursue that strategy and maybe he'll generate good performance on the back of it.  Just please don't tell me about 20 punches!

 

I'm really not that exercised about how Tilson invests - each to their own.  I just thought it was amusing.....

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But 20 punches is a mindset approach. 

 

That is a good way of putting it.  The thing about Buffett is people take his words so literally when it's really the meaning that is missed.  I don't believe for a second he believes 20 "punches" in a lifetime is the optimal amount or not.  It's a moot point.  He clearly has made hundreds if not thousands of investments in his lifetime.  His point was never about counting your investments in a lifetime, but simply putting a lot of care into each on AS IF that was all you could do.

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I remembered seeing it mentioned somewhere that he had underperformed the index since inception.  I just looked his returns up here: http://www.tilsonmutualfunds.com/. His dividend fund has outperformed and his focus fund has underperformed.  I am not really sure what is going on with his calculations though, the inception date for both funds is the same, but he has two different numbers for the benchmark  return since the inception date.

 

I think his return is reasonable, no ?

 

Maybe he should just continue to be the face of the firm and get someone else to do the stock picking.  I think value investing the graham and dodd way and selling are activities that require personalities that are opposite each other.  The good salesman I've known loved being around people, loved being the center of attention, and a lot of times were a little overconfident, while a lot of good investors that I know are more reclusive and cautious types.

 

On the other hand, maybe if he keeps at it he'll improve and eventually get better returns.

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I remembered seeing it mentioned somewhere that he had underperformed the index since inception.  I just looked his returns up here: http://www.tilsonmutualfunds.com/. His dividend fund has outperformed and his focus fund has underperformed.  I am not really sure what is going on with his calculations though, the inception date for both funds is the same, but he has two different numbers for the benchmark  return since the inception date.

 

I think his return is reasonable, no ?

 

Maybe he should just continue to be the face of the firm and get someone else to do the stock picking.  I think value investing the graham and dodd way and selling are activities that require personalities that are opposite each other.  The good salesman I've known loved being around people, loved being the center of attention, and a lot of times were a little overconfident, while a lot of good investors that I know are more reclusive and cautious types.

 

On the other hand, maybe if he keeps at it he'll improve and eventually get better returns.

 

I recall that being true, but didn't his hedge fund do ok prior to the mutual fund?

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Care to guess how many times Buffett has punched his card?  Saying things in an interview as a public figure is fraught with peril.  Almost anyone can be quoted arguing against themselves, even Buffett.

 

"I've owned 400-500 names, but most of the money was made in 10 of them."- WEB, Berkshire AGM 2013

 

How can Buffett's 20 punches quote be considered contradictory? He said if you took that approach it would improve your results, he didn't say it was his own approach.

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Care to guess how many times Buffett has punched his card?  Saying things in an interview as a public figure is fraught with peril.  Almost anyone can be quoted arguing against themselves, even Buffett.

 

"I've owned 400-500 names, but most of the money was made in 10 of them."- WEB, Berkshire AGM 2013

 

How can Buffett's 20 punches quote be considered contradictory? He said if you took that approach it would improve your results, he didn't say it was his own approach.

I think it's a general mindset. If you hit your 20 punch limit and have been successful, and then BAC comes around trading at .5 tbv, are you going to pass? I don't think Buffett meant it as a hard and fast rule, although I'm sure if people did treat it strictly I'm sure they would do fine. All I'm saying is there are always exceptions!

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For what it's worth, Charlie Munger has said (I'm paraphrasing, but it's close.) "Warren has made this analogy about the 20-punch card to business school students, and I agree. I literally think you would be better off only making 20 investments in a lifetime."

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I'd be curious to know how many publicly traded companies Munger has owned throughout his career.

 

Not sure, but from that DJCO transcript (I think) he made a point of saying that for his personal portfolio he'd only bought 1 stock in the past 2 years.

 

DJCO obviously bought a handful over the past few years, but then again Rick Guerin is there as well so maybe it wasn't all Charlie.

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For what it's worth, Charlie Munger has said (I'm paraphrasing, but it's close.) "Warren has made this analogy about the 20-punch card to business school students, and I agree. I literally think you would be better off only making 20 investments in a lifetime."

 

Do you remember if Charlie said this in a meeting or somewhere else?

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For what it's worth, Charlie Munger has said (I'm paraphrasing, but it's close.) "Warren has made this analogy about the 20-punch card to business school students, and I agree. I literally think you would be better off only making 20 investments in a lifetime."

 

Do you remember if Charlie said this in a meeting or somewhere else?

 

I have it in an OID clip. It's from a Wesco meeting. Here's the quote:

 

(On the idea of the 20-punch card)

 

"But that doesn't mean anything to people. They can't believe it. Nobody does that. But Warren wasn't kidding when he said it. And I'm not kidding when I repeat it. I think it is literally true that you would do better by only making 20 investment decisions in a lifetime -- assuming that you're a smart, disciplined person -- because you would really think very hard about each one and you'd be loading up fairly heavily on the ones that you knew most about. And therefore, you would do better."

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