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Paulson Braces Investors For The Worst


Parsad
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Paulson was always an average manager at best.  He had one good call (give him credit - it was the mother of all calls) which he will milk for all its worth - but I think you're now seeing a reversion back to the mean.  Give me Berkowitz, even after this disasterous year, any day over Paulson.

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Even the idea for Paulson's CDS trade came from one of his analysts, not him. Now, it took lots of determination and some vision to see it through and make it happen, but one brilliant move doesn't make a track record, so I agree that we're going to see a reversion to the mean even if IMO now is too soon to tell (one bad year doesn't mean much).

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Mr Market is so schizophrenic, at Paulson fund there might be an exodus of shortsighted investors. The flip side of the coin is that Julian Robertson, at 79, is back in business again, he just recently reopened Tiger Management again. He returned all outside money to investors in 2000. Robertson spent much of his 11 years on the sideline investing his own considerable fortune in hedge funds founded by former Tiger employees. His now reopened Tiger Mgmt raised about $450 million for its new seeding fund just six months after launching it. The Tiger Accelerator Fund seeded about six funds, probably some of his former best Tigers, this seems the best and natural strategy for Roberston at his advanced age, so his reopened Tiger can run on autopilot.

 

Guys what does this tell you, Robertson is back in business again and Buffett announced to repurchase shares.

 

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/145780/julian-robertson-long-us-tech-stocks-aapl-goog-v-ma

 

Julian Robertson @ Tiger Management LLC

Portfolio 2011-06-30

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001011440&HolderName=TIGER+MANAGEMENT+LLC

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Mr Market is so schizophrenic, at Paulson fund there might be an exodus of shortsighted investors.

 

It's always the same, isn't it? Most of his current investors probably jumped in after his funds went up a zillion percent, and now they're wanting to get out after a massive drop.

 

Buy high, sell low...

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Here's a list of Julian Robertson's reopened new Tiger funds:

 

 

 

TIGER MANAGEMENT LLC 

6/30/2011  $331,381,340 

33  stocks

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001011440&HolderName=TIGER+MANAGEMENT+LLC

 

 

TIGER CONSUMER MANAGEMENT...  

6/30/2011  $1,355,805,169 

39 stocks 

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001385534&HolderName=TIGER+CONSUMER+MANAGEMENT%2C+LLC

 

 

TIGER GLOBAL MANAGEMENT L...  

6/30/2011  $4,760,823,254 

43 stocks

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001167483&HolderName=TIGER+GLOBAL+MANAGEMENT+LLC

 

 

TIGER VEDA MANAGEMENT LLC 

6/30/2011  $129,615,762 

22  stocks

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001389279&HolderName=TIGER+VEDA+MANAGEMENT+LLC

 

 

TIGERSHARK PARTNERS LLC 

6/30/2011  $173,957,694 

55  stocks

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001279471&HolderName=TIGERSHARK+PARTNERS+LLC

 

_______________________________

 

some news articles about the reopening of Tiger

 

 

Tiger Sowing Seeds of Growth

Julian Robertson Weighs Reopening Firm to Outsiders a Decade After He Shut Fund

WSJ - July 21, 2011

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704723604575379563253539910.html

 

 

_______________________________

 

Julian Robertson Is Reopening Tiger Management To Outside Investors For The First Time In A Decade

April 5, 2011

 

Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-04-05/wall_street/30065689_1_julian-robertson-aum-tiger-management#ixzz1aXVP0CFX

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-04-05/wall_street/30065689_1_julian-robertson-aum-tiger-management

 

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While I'm intrigued by how a manager goes down, I'm far more interested in how they get back up...be it Prem, Mohnish, Tim and now Paulson, Berkowitz & Tilson.  I never count anyone out unless they give up and throw in the towel.  Cheers!

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Paulson was always an average manager at best.  He had one good call (give him credit - it was the mother of all calls) which he will milk for all its worth - but I think you're now seeing a reversion back to the mean.  Give me Berkowitz, even after this disasterous year, any day over Paulson.

 

I think Paulson is a good manager but, from my understanding of him, he was mostly a merger arb/event-driven guy who ran relatively small funds.  Then he hit the jackpot on the housing derivatives and got tons of hot money shoved into this funds.  Then he decided to run a fund that was so large he had to invest in areas outside of his expertise.  I think the hot money that's now flowing out will be a good thing for him.  He can get back to what he does best.  He'll be just fine.

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I think Paulson is a good manager but, from my understanding of him, he was mostly a merger arb/event-driven guy who ran relatively small funds.  Then he hit the jackpot on the housing derivatives and got tons of hot money shoved into this funds.  Then he decided to run a fund that was so large he had to invest in areas outside of his expertise.  I think the hot money that's now flowing out will be a good thing for him.  He can get back to what he does best.  He'll be just fine.

 

My thoughts exactly.

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