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Bottom just fell out of japan?


sdev
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http://www.xe.com/news/2011/03/15/1767097.htm?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=TL&utm_content=NOGEO&utm_campaign=News_RSS_Art3

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/official-says-slightly-elevated-radiation-levels-detected-in-tokyo-no-health-threat-so-far/2011/03/15/ABdRBFW_story.html

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tokyo-update-radiation-level-23-times-normal

 

DJ Tokyo Metropolitan Govt: Radiation Level 23 Times Normal Amount

DJ Tokyo Metropolitan Govt: No Immediate Harm To Human Health From Radiation In Central Tokyo

 

Could you possibly imagine Tokyo being a harmful radioactive area. My God.

 

The central government warned that radiation levels near a quake-stricken nuclear plant are now harmful to human health, following two explosions and a fire earlier in the day. The plant is 250 kilometres (155 miles) northeast of Tokyo.

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Thats nuts and we are still having Nuclear debates. Lets face it the Japanese are the most prepared people on the planet. If they cant handle it then we are nuts to try it.

 

This gets about 5 times worse each day it seems. As far as I can see the market drops are warranted.

 

Today I watched a 45 minute program on Japan and the nuclear disaster. A US ship 100 miles off the coast, moved away due to high radiation levels. In this 45 minute program no one mentioned the fact that Tokyo could be affected.

 

I think we will sell off a bit as well. This is the third largest economy in the world basically taking a huge hit.

 

 

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Radiation Level 23 Times Normal Amount

 

Perhaps some education is in order so we all maintain our perspective on what is and isn't meaningful information.

 

https://self-evident.org/?p=893

 

Ben

 

I know less than nothing on the topic of nuclear radiation, but people in Tokyo are beginning to panic.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/japan-quake-tokyo-idUKL3E7EF0JS20110315

 

Meanwhile Anderson Cooper is reporting about 60 kilometers from the plant.

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Guest Bronco

Parsad - you may not be able to answer this - I respect that - any thoughts on JNJ? 

 

It may trade towards 10x FCF soon.  Even though management sucks now, their consumer products business has huge moats IMO.

 

Just random thoughts.

 

 

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Guest Bronco

Shopping list - Google, Msft look nice.

 

Looking at FCX.

 

Short candidate (puts only) - AFL

 

I'll be buying Loews again under $40 ($16B market cap, $4B cash - come on)

 

I may even buy BH again at $350.

 

GLW I like now

EXC may get too cheap. 

Love to get in ITW. 

ALEX and BOH - Hawaii plays if they blow out those stocks.

 

I wanna look at TAP at $40.

 

I have alerts set up for when stocks hit certain prices.  I ain't buying until I get an alert.  But these are some of my ideas.

 

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BOJ pumped 85.5B USD (Yen equivalent) into their economy yesterday, & most see it as just the 1st round. 95% of japanese debt is funded by japanese savers, who are about to start spending those savings en masse. Where did they get the 85.5B from ? & where are they going to get the money to roll over the existing debt ? The global cost of funding just went up, & dramatically, as borrowers are about to experience crowding out.

 

Japan drops 20% & the Dow hardly reacts at all ? Spain gets downgraded (credit crisis), Bahrain (Oil) occupied, & global diesel fuel supplies get severely restricted (Libyan oil) ? & the Dow falls only modestly ? Most would suggest its denial, & the same sort of denial that couldn't recognize that US mortgages were collapsing.

 

We are globally linked. Why would drops in Asian markets not feed into Europe, then the US, & back into Asia ?

 

SD

 

 

 

 

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Guest Bronco

Myth - you must be a kid in a candy store.

 

I may be getting called out of Loews - shocked I haven't.  I really like scaling into some google here.  I like GLW - we all saw the video. 

 

JNJ is starting to intrigue - but I only bought a little for my wife's account.

 

AFL got smoked!  PRU - down big. 

 

Still haven't looked at if FFH will make money on this or not. 

 

 

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How large of a region is, or may be, affected by nuclear 'meltdowns'? Nobody in the media seems to have any clue. As usual, it seems like they are just watching each other and reporting the same thing.

 

It seems to me like only relatively a small part of Japan is currently being badly effected, aside from things like power outages, than what the media is making it out to be, but I really don't know. The media seems to be fishing for worst possible outcomes, and not most likely outcomes. Tough to find any media outlet rifht now with real useful information.

 

In think the actual fear of the hedge fund herd is just stock market declines, and not tied to things actually happening in Japan. They're all just building on each other's reckless fear, which is good for rational buyers.

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For me I will buy what ever gets killed un-rationally. Right now most of my stocks are down, but nothing out of the ordinary except for ALS. The oil side of things is down quite a bit but thats understandable.

 

Whats funny is the 1 thing I do want is up. Leaps on FTR lol. I want it at a 10% yield and it was almost there but is up 1% today.

 

DCG - I dont know. I think everyone is overreacting, but I wouldnt want to be in Toyko right now. If even 10% of what is being reported is possible or potential then ....

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I think everyone is overreacting, but I wouldnt want to be in Toyko right now. If even 10% of what is being reported is possible or potential then ....

 

This has been the most frustrating thing for me.  Trying to understand what's happening, what the likely scenarios are moving forward, and how bad is bad has been very difficult.  The problems at the nuclear plant have been rated a 6 out of 7 (3 mile island=5, Chernoble=7) so, this is very very serious.  And, it doesn't seem like they have a full handle on the situation. I've read that a Chernoble type event is not possible because of the design of the reactors and how it's operated, but two days ago the party line was that things were under control and the situation was not likely to be worse than 3 mile island.

 

Personally, I think it's too early to start getting excited about market prices.  Seems like there's still a lot of potential downside to the situation in Japan.  It's horrifying and depressing to watch.  Contemplating investment opportunities under the circumstances just seems . . . wrong (for lack of a better word).

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  It's horrifying and depressing to watch.  Contemplating investment opportunities under the circumstances just seems . . . wrong (for lack of a better word).

 

I agree. I am spending alot of time thinking about this. My 2 key takeways are not investing, they are

 

1. Life is dominated by black swans from time to time.

2. Life is fleeting, fragile, and short. It is meant to be enjoyed.

 

Investing is more of a watch and see, I prefer to see what is served up and then bat. Its more reactionary then ...

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Anybody looked at uranium producers? To me, the situation is similar with Deep Horizon, Uranium producers play an essential part of society.

 

It's not like countries will decomission all their nuclear plants already working. Heck, I don't see how anybody could close down one nuclear plant. It looks like a good idea today but 1 year from now nobody will care.

 

My guess on how it will turn is 6 months from now, the nuclear IAEA will  publish it's recommendations for safer nuclear plants. And these recommendations will be implemented in the next 3 years all around the globe.

 

BeerBaron

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I agree. I am spending alot of time thinking about this. My 2 key takeways are not investing, they are

 

1. Life is dominated by black swans from time to time.

2. Life is fleeting, fragile, and short. It is meant to be enjoyed.

 

 

Living in Southern California, the earthquake/tsunami component of recent events has me re-evaluating my worst case scenarios. 

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I am actually thinking that this might be the shock that ends the Japanese Malaise.  Rebuilding--if anyone can do that, and do it quickly, it's the Japanese.  It could be a massive economic injection.  Even the currency depreciation  from their monetary printing would probably be a good thing--their currency has been recently been high anyway.

 

It is a testament to the Japanese preparation and engineering that a seismic event of this magnitude has been dealt with this well, though there are always some mistakes.

 

Any loss of life is tragic, but life will continue.

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