Berkshire 13F

[rogermunibond]

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012311013623/v58511e13fvhr.txt

 

Almost all the Lou Simpson picks are gone.

[beerbaron]

Dam Buffett is not buying anything. Does it mean it's time for caution?

 

BeerBaron

[merkhet]

Well, Buffett fishes in a much smaller pool than the rest of us, so it doesn't necessarily mean there's no value left.  However, it certainly does bear some consideration.

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Not surprised BAC is gone, very un-Buffetesque and quite frankly a turd.

[brker_guy]

Dam Buffett is not buying anything.  Does it mean it's time for caution?

 

Sure he is buying.  He is buying C...A...$...H  ;D 

 

Actually, Munger alluded to this caution a few weeks ago at DJCO's annual meeting.

[Guest Bronco]

Not really caring about his small investments.  Quick poll...next big purchase is:

 

1 Munich re

2.  Wrigley and mars

3.  Big utility

4.  Biglari holdings

5.  Other

[gfp]

I'll take "E.On's UK power grid for $6B".  I guess that's either #3 or #5

[Guest Bronco]

I'll say that is #3 - broad category but it fits.

 

I say he cherishes #2 the most - just don't think those Mars weirdos will sell.  So I'll take general category #3.

[woodstove]

Oh, he's probably just timing the market!

[twacowfca]

Not really caring about his small investments.  Quick poll...next big purchase is:

 

1 Munich re

2.  Wrigley and mars

3.  Big utility

4.  Biglari holdings

5.  Other

 

LOL Biglari holdings.  Don't forget Fremont; it's in his favorite industry after all.  :D

[Guest Bronco]

Wondering if that BH listing was going to slip by or not...

[Uccmal]

I am not sure how or when, or even if its legal in the US, but I would say that Wells Fargo looks like a good target.  If he sits for 3 years he should be able to pull it off without huge dilution.

[Partner24]

Definitely Biglari Holdings. Let me bet it's CEO will get a chapter in the next edition Warren Buffett CEO book. It's the perfect fit. I've also got a scoop for you guys.....

 

Forget Watsa, Pabrai, Lu, etc. Biglari IS the next Warren Buffett!  :o

 

I'm just not sure if BRK is big enough to buy Biglari Holdings. What do you think guys?

[Guest Bronco]

No way on wfc

 

Brk would have to file as a bank

[ericd1]

He has the utility and the railroad. Add in the mine and he's completly vertically integrated and profits from each step

[Liberty]

I'd like to see the Munich Re deal happen. Buffett can no doubt invest the float much better than they can (even taking into consideration that there are few elephants), so that would probably give them a better ROE than they have now.

 

I'd also like to see Mars/Wrigley deal happen, but I don't know much about the owners of that business.. Anyone here has some backstory on why this isn't likely?

[txlaw]

I've always wondered whether WEB would consider buying ILFC for Berkshire. 

 

I think it would be a good fit.

[Guest Bronco]

Looks like Buffett (and Sokol) may have been in on the UK utility purchase.  PPL won.

 

I still think this is where is focus will be.

 

In other words - what businesses will be around 20 years from now.  Pipelines.  Utilities.  Railroads.  This is the criteria.

 

Starting a new thread on Buffett.

[eclecticvalue]

 

In other words - what businesses will be around 20 years from now.  Pipelines.  Utilities.  Railroads.  This is the criteria.

 

Starting a new thread on Buffett.

 

I wonder if Buffett will try to buy Constellation Energy again. When Constellation went under in 2008 they tried to buy it but got outbid for it. The only problematic thing is Berkshire will have to get rid of the current management.

[txlaw]

Looks like Buffett (and Sokol) may have been in on the UK utility purchase.  PPL won.

 

I still think this is where is focus will be.

 

In other words - what businesses will be around 20 years from now.  Pipelines.  Utilities.  Railroads.  This is the criteria.

 

Hmm, maybe he'll use those Energy Future Holding bonds to establish Berkshire as a front runner to buy up the company.  That would certainly be an elephant.

[Myth465]

Looks like Buffett (and Sokol) may have been in on the UK utility purchase.  PPL won.

 

I still think this is where is focus will be.

 

In other words - what businesses will be around 20 years from now.  Pipelines.  Utilities.  Railroads.  This is the criteria.

 

Starting a new thread on Buffett.

 

Bronco I think you are on to something. Buffett seems focused on buying businesses he knows will be around in 20 years. You can quickly see the difference between him talking about BYD vs. Sees or Burlington. I dont think he likes complicated competition and prefers monopolies, and duopolies. It was very insightful when he said a good business is better than cash. I think many people gloss overit and think its gradpa Warren speak, but I have really spent sometime thinking about it and it makes perfect sense. I can now see why he held onto Coke despite the over valuation. Cash comes and comes for BRK, but there is only one Coke. I will churn and burn until I have the same problem (He still could have bought puts on Pepsi though).

[twacowfca]

Looks like Buffett (and Sokol) may have been in on the UK utility purchase.  PPL won.

 

I still think this is where is focus will be.

 

In other words - what businesses will be around 20 years from now.  Pipelines.  Utilities.  Railroads.  This is the criteria.

 

Starting a new thread on Buffett.

 

Bronco I think you are on to something. Buffett seems focused on buying businesses he knows will be around in 20 years. You can quickly see the difference between him talking about BYD vs. Sees or Burlington. I dont think he likes complicated competition and prefers monopolies, and duopolies. It was very insightful when he said a good business is better than cash. I think many people gloss overit and think its gradpa Warren speak, but I have really spent sometime thinking about it and it makes perfect sense. I can now see why he held onto Coke despite the over valuation. Cash comes and comes for BRK, but there is only one Coke. I will churn and burn until I have the same problem (He still could have bought puts on Pepsi though).

 

 

Actually, all of his largest holdings have been around for over 100 years. :o

[Guest Bronco]

Yeah, he really has a different mindset than most of us.  Rightly so.  I can't afford a railroad like BNI.  I can't even afford a Fisher Price railroad set.

 

But my point is he buys a business, not a stock.  He bought Coke thinking he will get close to 10% of all the profits.  Not bad.  I wouldn't mind that.  If he sold, he may find better value, better current investments - but never a better business.

 

But others make good points - he has done different things over his career.  But right now I really think Berkshire is undergoing a major shift - become more like a GE but actually well capitalized.  GE in my mind will go down as the king of all shadow banks (maybe GS was the queen).  BRK was the opposite. 

 

So who knows what the future BRK will really look like.  But I think it will be awesome.  It owns a whole railroad for god's sake.  Instead of the crappy Dairy Queens and carpet and brick stuff, you'll see massive utilities, a big railroad, giant insurance of course, and maybe some huge medical device company or some twist we don't know about it. 

 

Perhaps we will see a future Berkshire Immobiliare.  That is what I see.

 

Not saying this will make the stock perform at a 15+% growth rate.  Just saying Immobiliare is coming.