FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[Jurgis]

Good to see it all getting some air time though. McLean is really well spoken. A lot of guys i talk to here in chicago dont like Ackman because he comes off abrasively. She kinda has a demeanor to her that people will listen to.

 

Ah, but you have to think whether you approach this as investor (in common or prefs) or as a taxpayer who wants GSEs on sound footing.

 

Despite what Ackman says, the two are not the same. There are solutions for taxpayers that leave current investors with nothing.

[merkhet]

Ah, but you have to think whether you approach this as investor (in common or prefs) or as a taxpayer who wants GSEs on sound footing.

 

Despite what Ackman says, the two are not the same. There are solutions for taxpayers that leave current investors with nothing.

 

I'd be curious to hear one.

[Jurgis]

Ah, but you have to think whether you approach this as investor (in common or prefs) or as a taxpayer who wants GSEs on sound footing.

 

Despite what Ackman says, the two are not the same. There are solutions for taxpayers that leave current investors with nothing.

 

I'd be curious to hear one.

 

We had this discussion in the past. I am not going to repeat. Listen to the event. There were at least couple ideas mentioned there in between Ackman propaganda.

 

Edit: since you asked 8) : Courts find that what govt did was all legal. Govt sets up new GSE where they put the money from the old GSEs and wind them down. New GSE is well capped and does great things for taxpayers. It might even go public. The end.

 

I will attempt not to answer any posts that claim that this is not realistic, that it's soviet, or any other Ackman argumentation. ;) Take care.

[doughishere]

Bill Ackman Is THISCLOSE To Reading The U.S. Government Its Miranda Rights

 

http://dealbreaker.com/2015/09/bill-ackman-is-thisclose-to-reading-the-u-s-government-its-miranda-rights/

[merkhet]

Ah, but you have to think whether you approach this as investor (in common or prefs) or as a taxpayer who wants GSEs on sound footing.

 

Despite what Ackman says, the two are not the same. There are solutions for taxpayers that leave current investors with nothing.

 

I'd be curious to hear one.

 

We had this discussion in the past. I am not going to repeat. Listen to the event. There were at least couple ideas mentioned there in between Ackman propaganda.

 

Edit: since you asked 8) : Courts find that what govt did was all legal. Govt sets up new GSE where they put the money from the old GSEs and wind them down. New GSE is well capped and does great things for taxpayers. It might even go public. The end.

 

I will attempt not to answer any posts that claim that this is not realistic, that it's soviet, or any other Ackman argumentation. ;) Take care.

 

Ah, yes.

 

We may have to agree to disagree that transferring assets from the old GSE to the new GSE would still be a Takings Clause violation.

 

Edit: On a re-read, I suspect that if the courts find that what the government did was illegal, there would be no need to transfer the assets aside from Raines' point about naming issues.

 

Thanks for providing your thoughts on this.

[Jurgis]

Ah, but you have to think whether you approach this as investor (in common or prefs) or as a taxpayer who wants GSEs on sound footing.

 

Despite what Ackman says, the two are not the same. There are solutions for taxpayers that leave current investors with nothing.

 

I'd be curious to hear one.

 

We had this discussion in the past. I am not going to repeat. Listen to the event. There were at least couple ideas mentioned there in between Ackman propaganda.

 

Edit: since you asked 8) : Courts find that what govt did was all legal. Govt sets up new GSE where they put the money from the old GSEs and wind them down. New GSE is well capped and does great things for taxpayers. It might even go public. The end.

 

I will attempt not to answer any posts that claim that this is not realistic, that it's soviet, or any other Ackman argumentation. ;) Take care.

 

Ah, yes.

 

We may have to agree to disagree that transferring assets from the old GSE to the new GSE would still be a Takings Clause violation.

 

Thanks for providing your thoughts on this though.

 

Ah, but if the courts rule for govt status quo, can't govt bleed GSE as they do now, stop accepting new mortgages into current GSE at some point, create new GSE (Brad and Angelina ;)) that is not directly tied to money bled from current GSE, start accepting mortgages to new GSE and finance it - not directly - with money from current GSE.

 

I am sure there are other ways. Even the following: continue as it is. At some point GSE is bled to death and dies. Taxpayers are on the hook, but by that time they (taxpayers or govt) have received so much money from GSE that the caping of any new GSE costs less than all the profits. (Sure there are arguments why this is bad, but it could also be not that bad... ;)).

 

Anyway, I am not a lawyer, I can't handicap this, I spent on this about five minutes (plus half wasted hour to listen to the Columbia event), so probably not worth pursuing it further.

 

OTOH somebody could probably spend couple months on this and figure out numerous ways to work govt side if they win lawsuits.

[merkhet]

I think your broader point is that if the plaintiffs lose their cases, then the government can do whatever they want to do with the GSEs, and that's 100% true.

 

The lynchpin is, as you said, how to handicap the odds that all the plaintiffs lose their cases.

[orthopa]

Good to see it all getting some air time though. McLean is really well spoken. A lot of guys i talk to here in chicago dont like Ackman because he comes off abrasively. She kinda has a demeanor to her that people will listen to.

 

Ah, but you have to think whether you approach this as investor (in common or prefs) or as a taxpayer who wants GSEs on sound footing.

 

Despite what Ackman says, the two are not the same. There are solutions for taxpayers that leave current investors with nothing.

 

And going against the constitution and state laws. I know the idea of some rich hedge fund managers getting rich irks some but the idea of the government breaking the oldest and highest law in the land is leaps and bounds worse.

 

Solutions are great but if the law is broken its broken. If the government came and took your property/house/etc you would not be very happy and declare its against the law. This is no different.

[orthopa]

I think your broader point is that if the plaintiffs lose their cases, then the government can do whatever they want to do with the GSEs, and that's 100% true.

 

The lynchpin is, as you said, how to handicap the odds that all the plaintiffs lose their cases.

 

If the plaintiffs lose their cases and its found that the govt broke multiple laws including state and constitutional with no recourse recapitalizing the GSE's will be the last of my worries. Thats a dangerous precedent.

[Luke 532]

This is fantastic...

 

Columbia Global Reports and 'Shaky Ground' Launch Event

 

McLean on CNBC earlier today... http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000420067&play=1

 

Charlie Rose: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-17/-shaky-ground-charlie-rose

 

Nasdaq.com's The Street: http://www.nasdaq.com/video/fates-of-fannie-and-freddie-need-to-be-settled-asap-says-bethany-mclean-519085001

[doughishere]

I wish Bill would of let her speak more. I like her analogy, Fix the roof while the sun is shinning.

 

More and more people are talking about, the last thing to be fixed in the Great Crisis of '08, which is a plus.

 

 

That Street guy..."So Fannie and Freddie are profitable?"....shocking i know.

[doughishere]

More news for the rumor mill. He has to be joking.

 

Vatican sources—whose identities I cannot reveal because of my adherence to the International Blog Source Secrecy Guidelines (IBSSG) —implied Pope Francis expects to warn congressional and Administration policy makers, “Hands off the GSEs.”  It was hinted His Holiness may also suggest that banks not be given early access to the CSP.

 

 

In a related development, Mario Ugoletti, former Treasury and FHFA employee (see impotence above), reportedly has moved to Ulaanbator, Mongolia, shortly after joining the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Saints. Before leaving, MU muttered something about, “Francis can’t excommunicate an ex-Catholic Mongolian Mormon novitiate can he?”

 

 

http://malonigse.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-pope-fannie-mclean-and-little.html

[merkhet]

I know we're all a little antsy given the black hole of news lately, but the Pope? Really?

[Jurgis]

This thread is officially humor deprived.

[doughishere]

I was hoping the Pope would put in a good word with the Easter Bunny, you know maybe we could get this all taken care of for the shareholders by April.

 

 

[Jurgis]

I was hoping the Pope would put in a good word with the Easter Bunny, you know maybe we could get this all taken care of for the shareholders by April.

 

Not if Phil Ackman comes out of White House and sees his shadow.

[muscleman]

http://www.theonion.com/article/pope-francis-reverses-position-capitalism-after-se-51363

 

The pope now starts to appreciate the US system.  ;D

[doughishere]

Not the Onion. Same guys that did the report earlier.

 

White Paper Analysis of the Treasury Takeover of Fannie Mae

 

Adam Spittler CPA, MS

Mike Ciklin JD, MBA, MRE

G. Stevenson Smith, Ph.D., CPA, CMA

 

http://www.housingwire.com/ext/resources/files/Editorial/Trey-Files/White-Paper_Treasury-Fannie-Mae-FINAL.pdf

 

 

This white paper reviews Fannie’s Mae financial statements to understand the financial viability of the company during the period from 2007 to 2014. A number of financial indicators and documents provide evidence that Fannie Mae was not in the dire straits reported as the justification for the takeover. It is likely that Fannie Mae could have survived the financial crisis without the intervention of the Treasury.

[Luke 532]

Is it just me or do the odds of winning in court or being released seem to increase by the day?  All the while the price of FNMAS remains below $5.00.  Result being the risk/reward is improving.  Am I wrong?

[doughishere]

Is it just me or do the odds of winning in court or being released seem to increase by the day?  All the while the price of FNMAS remains below $5.00.  Result being the risk/reward is improving.  Am I wrong?

 

I get where you are coming from. I do think the odds have "gotten better" in maybe a normal circumstance. However this is not a normal circumstance. I think F&F are a "special" special situation case and make or break of it does rest on the courts. This has been teh case from the beginning. Plus, now you could  get a ruling like Hank Greenberg and the AIG case. A win but no award.

 

The market is correct in discounting the success right now. I do think the word is getting out now. Maybe some of you others agree, but i think that there is a much wider audience that sees what is happening now.

 

 

[doughishere]

http://globalreports.columbia.edu/events/bethany-mclean-at-the-university-of-chicagos-institute-of-politics/

 

Bethany McLean at the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics

 

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

6:00pm — 7:30pm

Booth School of Business, Room 104

Institute of Politics

University of Chicago

5707 S. Woodlawn Ave.

Chicago, IL 60637

 

 

 

I'll be there. Probably wont be much different talked about other than whats in the online interviews. Non the less it will be interesting.

[Luke 532]

Is it just me or do the odds of winning in court or being released seem to increase by the day?  All the while the price of FNMAS remains below $5.00.  Result being the risk/reward is improving.  Am I wrong?

 

I get where you are coming from. I do think the odds have "gotten better" in maybe a normal circumstance. However this is not a normal circumstance. I think F&F are a "special" special situation case and make or break of it does rest on the courts. This has been teh case from the beginning.

 

You may be underestimating the probability of this saga being resolved outside of the courts.  I think that is the more likely outcome... and I believe it's becoming more probable as each day passes.

[Luke 532]

The market is correct in discounting the success right now. I do think the word is getting out now. Maybe some of you others agree, but i think that there is a much wider audience that sees what is happening now.

 

You're right that the market is correct to apply a discount, but if you're arguing that the severity of discount is correct I would have to disagree.  The market prices roughly a 19% chance of FNMAS returning to par.  I'd argue that is way too low.  I'd put the odds at well above 50%.  If it were 57% that would be a 3-for-1 that the market is offering in terms of mis-pricing. 

[doughishere]

luke, I get it. I really do. Well see. I just don't expect anything any time soon. Discovery goes until next year. I just think it'll be Easter before we see any movement or anything, positive or negative for shareholders. I'm not even talking the share prices I haven't looked at it in months. News wise I just don't see anything but more of the same.

 

I get the anticipation, I'm hoping for a whistleblower to come forward. We'll see. I kinda expect the next few months to be like the last week or so...Alls quiet on the western front.

[Luke 532]

I'm not even talking the share prices I haven't looked at it in months. News wise I just don't see anything but more of the same.

 

I guess we view the situation differently.  I would say there has been more positive news in the past three months than in any 3-month period in the past few years.