New FBK

[Stove]

$USD 1011.22/ton NBSK - latest FOEX data, dwon from $USD 1019.41 last week.

 

http://www.paperage.com/foex/pulp.html

[alertmeipp]

Finally, a insider buy. Good sign.

[Myth465]

Now we are trading down due to pulp prices going down and economic turmoil, unfortunately we didnt get  the uptick from the pulp increases or the false recovery.

[alertmeipp]

yeah... life sucks.

:)

[lessthaniv]

http://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=FBK

 

 

[cwericb]

"Finally, a insider buy. Good sign."

 

Other than a relatively small purchase by Cote, are these not just the rights offered to staff @1.35 as an incentive rather than any actual purchases?

[alertmeipp]

Yeah, note that I said ""Finally, a insider buy. Good sign.".

 

Still a good sign, right?

[cwericb]

Agreed. I wonder if Mr. Cote has been reading our board?

 

But the employee rights offering has to be a good incentive to get the stock price up and the $1.35 should be a reasonable target.

[alertmeipp]

1.35 should be an easy target IMO.

the right offering + the cash generated this quarter should make next Q's balance sheet looks golden.

[Renkane]

FWIW, here's Goldman's most recent commentary on the pulp market:

 

Pulp: Some Reversal in Market Conditions After Record Run 

Published 24 Aug 2010 12:29:41 pm CST

 

Global shipments of market pulp totaled 3.338 million tonnes in July 2010, down 6.2% from 3.558 million tonnes in July 2009.

Although shipments to Western Europe increased 6.4% on a year-over-year basis, shipments to China fell 33.6%, shipments to North America were down 6.7%, and volumes to Other Asia/Africa were off 14.6%.

Through the first seven months of 2010, global market pulp shipments were flat with the comparable 2009 period.  Although shipments to China sunk 29.5%, volumes were higher into major regions North America (+9.1%), Western Europe (+10.7%), and Latin America (+18.1%).

The global shipment to capacity ratio was 88% in July 2010, down from 93% one year earlier.  However, for the first seven months of the year, this ratio was 92%, up from 91% in the 2009 period.

Pulp inventories held by producers ended July 2010 at 29 days of supply, flat with one year earlier.  While considered to be a comfortable level, this represents an increase from 25 days of supply at the end of June 2010.

After shooting up to a high $1,020/tonne in July 2010, the price of NBSK pulp fell $30/tonne, to $990/tonne in August 2010.  This is still 35.6% higher than the $730/tonne price in August 2009.

While the direction of the pulp market during the remainder of 2010 is unclear, we believe that some additional selling price declines are likely, but do not expect prices to plummet to 2009 levels.

In our opinion, key determinants of near-term price trends will be the timing of a resumption of Chinese buying to more normal levels, the amount of shuttered North American capacity that is restarted, and the pace of the global economic recovery.

Major market pulp producers in the high yield market include Domtar, Georgia-Pacific, Millar Western, Tembec, and Catalyst Paper.

[manualofideas]

Pulp prices still doing OK, flat for another week: http://www.paperage.com/foex/pulp.html

 

At some point, folks will have to stop saying "I'm afraid of the eventual downturn" and start realizing that pulp prices remain well within the profit zone for Fibrek.  I don't think I've ever seen a stock selling for a quarter of tangible book value with these kinds of positive fundamentals, improved balance sheet, and a smart, engaged shareholder to ensure management will not squander value.  I know we've all been disappointed in recent months because Fibrek didn't deliver the upside we thought was deserved, but this investment may yet take a turn for the better.

 

Disclosure: Long FBK.

[Guest Dazel]

http://www.foex.fi/

 

This is a very positive report which includes a price stand off in China.

 

we are long fbk as well.

 

Dazel.

[lessthaniv]

thusfar, the exchange rate hasn't been hurting us for the quarter either.

 

 

[alertmeipp]

still no sign of life seen.

should be trading at sub 2 now..

[EdWatchesBoxing]

still no sign of life seen.

should be trading at sub 2 now..

 

Do you mean it should not be trading at sub 2?

 

I'm just trying to be patient with this one...

[alertmeipp]

now.. it's sub 1.

[Guest Dazel]

 

http://www.foex.fi/

 

Pulp prices have firmed....this puts FBK in a very good position. China has firmed as well.

I would expect that when Abitibi exits and lumber prices rise more... they were up 10% one day

last week we will see some interest. As we know FBK is illiquid and when it moves it moves big in either direction. This time it will be in favor of the shareholders...patience...it appears the cycle is not over!

long FBK.

dazel.

[Alekbaylee]

Wow! FBK finally getting some steam...

[lessthaniv]

Canfor Pulp increases monthly distribution to 25 cents

 

2010-09-20 17:55 ET - News Release

 

Mr. Terry Hodgins reports

 

CANFOR PULP INCOME FUND ANNOUNCES INCREASE IN MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION

 

Giving consideration to the accumulated undistributed cash generated by Canfor Pulp Limited Partnership during 2010 and the partnership's current projection of pulp prices for the rest of the year, Canfor Pulp Income Fund has declared an increase in the monthly cash distribution to 25 cents per fund unit.

 

Accordingly the fund has declared a cash distribution of 25 cents per fund unit for the month of September, 2010, to be paid on Oct. 15, 2010, to unitholders of record at the close of business on Sept. 30, 2010.

 

We seek Safe Harbor.

[alertmeipp]

still below a buck... I guess we have to start somewhere.

[FFHWatcher]

Canfor Pulp increases monthly distribution to 25 cents

 

2010-09-20 17:55 ET - News Release

 

Mr. Terry Hodgins reports

 

CANFOR PULP INCOME FUND ANNOUNCES INCREASE IN MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION

 

Giving consideration to the accumulated undistributed cash generated by Canfor Pulp Limited Partnership during 2010 and the partnership's current projection of pulp prices for the rest of the year, Canfor Pulp Income Fund has declared an increase in the monthly cash distribution to 25 cents per fund unit.

 

Accordingly the fund has declared a cash distribution of 25 cents per fund unit for the month of September, 2010, to be paid on Oct. 15, 2010, to unitholders of record at the close of business on Sept. 30, 2010.

 

We seek Safe Harbor.

 

??

 

$3.00 annual distribution on a $13.83 stock/trust?  Crazy (aka:envy as I don't own it).  Why not keep it lower and pay out a one time amount?  Likely tax implications.  Also, keep in mind that Canfor had a 1 penny distribution for much of 2009!!  What a difference a year makes.

 

This must have positive implications for Fibrek's next quarterly report, I would hope.  FBK's value must be almost 'swelling' compared to the very low valuation that they currently trade at.  Fingers crossed that management has been able to hold all the moving parts together.  NBSK pricing has held up well.  I am having a hard time trusting mgmt when they can't even get a website up and running in 6 months.  Shouldn't it take 6 days at the most, maybe even 6 hours?

 

FYI - Distribution History for Canfor

 

Distribution History - http://www.canforpulp.com/investors/distributions/distributions.asp

 

Canfor Pulp Income Fund pays monthly distributions around the 15th of the month to unitholders of record at the close of business on the last business day of the preceding month. Since inception, the Fund has paid monthly distributions as follows:

>

  Date of distribution, then amount, then supplement amt, then total amt, then date payable (sorry for formatting)

January 29, 2010 - $0.08 February 15, 2010

  February 26, 2010 $0.12   $0.12 March 15, 2010

  March 31, 2010 $0.12 - $0.12 April 15, 2010

  April 30, 2010 $0.12 - $0.12 May 14, 2010

  May 31, 2010 $0.20 - $0.20 June 15, 2010

  June 30, 2010 $0.20 - $0.20 July 15, 2010

  July 30, 2010 $0.22 - $0.22 August 1 (, 2010

  August 31, 2010 $0.22 - $0.22 September 15, 2010

  September 20, 2010 $0.25 - $0.25 October 15, 2010

 

  January 30, 2009 $0.04 - $0.04 February 13, 2009

  February 27, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 March 13, 2009

  March 31, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 April 15, 2009

  April 30, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 May 15, 2009

  May 31, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 June 15, 2009

  June 30, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 July 15, 2009

  July 31, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 August 14, 2009

  August 31, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 September 15, 2009

  September 30, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 October 15, 2009

  October 31, 2009 $0.01 - $0.01 November 13, 2009

  November 30, 2009 $0.05 - $0.05 December 15, 2009

  December 31, 2009 $0.08 - $0.08 January 15, 2010

 

  January 31, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 February 15, 2008

  February 29, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 March 14, 2008

  March 31, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 April 15, 2008

  April 30, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 May 15, 2008

  May 30, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 June 13, 2008

  June 30, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 July 15, 2008

  July 31, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 August 15, 2008

  August 29, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 September 15, 2008

  September 30, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 October 15, 2008

  October 31, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 November 14, 2008

  November 28, 2008 $0.12 - $0.12 December 15, 2008

  December 31, 2008 $0.04 - $0.04 January 15, 2009

 

  January 31, 2007 $0.14 - $0.14 February 15, 2007

  February 28, 2007 $0.14 - $0.14 March 15, 2007

  March 30, 2007 $0.14 - $0.14 April 13, 2007

  April 30, 2007 $0.14 - $0.14 May 15, 2007

  May 31, 2007 $0.18 - $0.18 June 15, 2007

  June 29, 2007 $0.18 - $0.18 July 13, 2007

  July 31, 2007 $0.18 - $0.18 August 15, 2007

  August 31, 2007 $0.18 - $0.18 September 14, 2007

  September 28, 2007 $0.18 - $0.18 October 15, 2007

  October 31, 2007 $0.14 - $0.14 November 15, 2007

  November 30, 2007 $0.12 - $0.12 December 14, 2007

  December 31, 2007 $0.12 - $0.12 January 15, 2008

 

  July 31, 2006 $0.12 - $0.12 August 15, 2006

  August 31, 2006 $0.12 - $0.12 September 15, 2006

  September 30, 2006 $0.12 $0.08 $0.20 October 13, 2006

  October 30, 2006 $0.12 $0.08 $0.20 November 15, 2006

  November 30, 2006 $0.12 $0.12 $0.24 December 15, 2006

  December 29, 2006 $0.14 $0.22 $0.36 January 15, 2007

 

 

[Uccmal]

I still hold some CFx.un.  I have about a third of what I held a year ago still left.  It is trading at 2x book, with 20% yield.  The yield is not likely sustainable although the longer they rake in the cash presumably the better their balance sheet will get.  I also like that Jim Pattison is in the picture on this one as a major shareholder of CFP.  Now obviously the yield is going to take a hit in the new year under a new tax regime.  I am thinking the market has this priced in to the stock at this point.

 

RE: fbk:  This is a very disturbing situation.  Management appear to be just caretakers at best, so far.  I would like to see the major shareholders get aggressive and toss them out.  By now they should have started paying a small dividend as a goodwill measure.  I just dont get it.  If they drove the stock up to Book value they could issue a small number of shares to preserve their capital position. 

[SharperDingaan]

 

Keep in mind that 73% of everyone other than FFH took up the subscription at $1.01 - & if anyone was arbitraging the shares their buyer paid more than $1.01 (ie: a premium). Those were institutions, & trading volume since then indicates they haven't changed their position.

 

If those 'other' shares were arbitraged (highly likely with roughly 23.3M shares) a potential 18% position has collected in somebody elses hands, & the existing institutions have agreed to their presence. 

 

FBK has not suddenly become stupid.

 

SD

[finetrader]

3rd quarter is almost over and pulp price is still high. We can expect another 15M$ FCF (excluding working capital changes) for this quarter alone! This for a market cap of 130M$

 

My guess is that management wants to improve the balance sheet before reinstaing a dividend. They probably also want to make sure it is sustainable. Short term, a dividend announcement would probably be very good for share price.

 

Medium term, no one expect pulp price to stay that high. Those plants restart will indeed put pressure on pulp price.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/lumber-and-pulp/wood-pulp.html

 

Other things being equal, is anyone have an idea what the cash flow would look like if pulp price follow this pattern? I mean, what would be the cash flow if pulp pirce at 800$/ton?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[triedtestedand]

Dividend schmividend ... with FCF from the last 6 months of the year, FBK needs to announce they are buying back the debenture (which they could use their line of credit to help cover) ... that would be the XMas present to solidify their balance sheet further.

 

Then (presuming no other rabbits start getting pulled out of hats) they could simply initiate a share buyback ... that would put a floor on the stock, provide some liquidity for those who want/need it, and reward the patient longer term investors more than a dividend would.  It would also align with motivation of the options granted to management to reward share appreciation.