FWIW, here's Goldman's most recent commentary on the pulp market:
Pulp: Some Reversal in Market Conditions After Record Run
Published 24 Aug 2010 12:29:41 pm CST
Global shipments of market pulp totaled 3.338 million tonnes in July 2010, down 6.2% from 3.558 million tonnes in July 2009.
Although shipments to Western Europe increased 6.4% on a year-over-year basis, shipments to China fell 33.6%, shipments to North America were down 6.7%, and volumes to Other Asia/Africa were off 14.6%.
Through the first seven months of 2010, global market pulp shipments were flat with the comparable 2009 period. Although shipments to China sunk 29.5%, volumes were higher into major regions North America (+9.1%), Western Europe (+10.7%), and Latin America (+18.1%).
The global shipment to capacity ratio was 88% in July 2010, down from 93% one year earlier. However, for the first seven months of the year, this ratio was 92%, up from 91% in the 2009 period.
Pulp inventories held by producers ended July 2010 at 29 days of supply, flat with one year earlier. While considered to be a comfortable level, this represents an increase from 25 days of supply at the end of June 2010.
After shooting up to a high $1,020/tonne in July 2010, the price of NBSK pulp fell $30/tonne, to $990/tonne in August 2010. This is still 35.6% higher than the $730/tonne price in August 2009.
While the direction of the pulp market during the remainder of 2010 is unclear, we believe that some additional selling price declines are likely, but do not expect prices to plummet to 2009 levels.
In our opinion, key determinants of near-term price trends will be the timing of a resumption of Chinese buying to more normal levels, the amount of shuttered North American capacity that is restarted, and the pace of the global economic recovery.
Major market pulp producers in the high yield market include Domtar, Georgia-Pacific, Millar Western, Tembec, and Catalyst Paper.