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Guest Dazel

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Retiring ½ the Debs now, & ½ later, is a desirable thing. It maintains the cash cushion, uses up the Q4 cash generated, & the remaining ½ will use up the Q1 cash generated. Some of the Deb holders would also like to keep them as long as possible; our cash yield is > 20%

 

Everyone, including ABH, wants a higher price. It revalues their existing portion of St Feliceon upwards (more equity), & if they pay in stock - it increases their total o/s equity, & reduces the Debt/Equity ratio

 

Snr Mgmt will be quite happy with a package. For regular Joe, there would essentially be no change - as only the ownership changes. You still need to run the plants.

 

Clearly the AGM will be an important date, & we can expect a few more announcements.

 

SD

 

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'Jolting' drop in sales means paper industry 'must adapt'  Says Andre Bernier, chairman of the Pulp and Paper Technical Association of Canada (Former CEO of SFK/FBK) now a productivity expert with Catalyst Paper Corp. in Vancouver.

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Jolting+drop+sales+means+paper+industry+must+adapt/4208545/story.html

 

No doubt what he says is true regarding newsprint but it seems that in business and in home use computers have a tendency to produce prodigious quantities of paper. Also, does he factor in the increasing demand for paper in developing countries?

 

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Domtar Q4/2010 Earnings: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/February2011/04/c7329.html

 

Somebody else in Montreal would appear to be shopping for pulp!

 

"Commenting on the 2010 performance, Mr. Williams said, "We continued to aggressively execute on our "Perform, Grow, Break out" strategic journey, thanks to excellent cost management and decisive actions that realigned our asset portfolio and reduced our exposure to challenging businesses. We have also made strategic investments in growth markets that bode well for the future, notably in fluff pulp and nanocrystalline cellulose, and built a flexible balance sheet that provides us with the ability to seize opportunities. We are well positioned for the year to come."

 

SD

 

 

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UCCMAL:

 

I get Level II quotes within BMO Investorline account environment ... late last week there was a glut around ~$1.41/$1.42, but ask has since appeared to been lowered (across a relatively few # of orders). 

 

Latest is below ... there's about 340K shares available in the range stated (about $450K worth).

 

 

Level ll Quote for FIBREK INC. (FBK: Toronto) 

  Bid                                                  Ask   

Price  Total Size  # of Orders  Price  Total Size  # of Orders

 

$1.34    4                2            $1.35  39          2 

$1.33    117              4            $1.36  869        6 

$1.32    131              5            $1.37  1030      3 

$1.31    36                3            $1.38  1506      4 

$1.30    312              2            $1.39  98          2 

$1.29    90                1            $1.40  136        3 

$1.28    85                2            $1.41  60          1 

$1.25    48                1            $1.42  56          2 

$1.23    60                1            $1.44  30          1 

$1.22    25                1            $1.45  60  1 

 

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TNT,

 

290K of those shares appear to be staggered trades all originating from one dealer (TD Securities).

 

50,000 @ $1.36

100,000 @ $1.37

129,700 @ $1.38

 

The orders were all entered a few minutes apart. This looks and smells like one entity making the trades perhaps over multiple accounts. (RRSP,Cash, etc). I wouldn't read anything into this. Remove those asks from the que and its status quo.

 

We are talking about a very small piece of the pie here.

 

 

 

 

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UCCMAL:

 

I get Level II quotes within BMO Investorline account environment ... late last week there was a glut around ~$1.41/$1.42, but ask has since appeared to been lowered (across a relatively few # of orders). 

 

Latest is below ... there's about 340K shares available in the range stated (about $450K worth).

 

 

Level ll Quote for FIBREK INC. (FBK: Toronto) 

  Bid                                                  Ask   

Price  Total Size  # of Orders  Price  Total Size  # of Orders

 

$1.34    4                2            $1.35  39          2 

$1.33    117              4            $1.36  869        6 

$1.32    131              5            $1.37  1030      3 

$1.31    36                3            $1.38  1506      4 

$1.30    312              2            $1.39  98          2 

$1.29    90                1            $1.40  136        3 

$1.28    85                2            $1.41  60          1 

$1.25    48                1            $1.42  56          2 

$1.23    60                1            $1.44  30          1 

$1.22    25                1            $1.45  60  1 

 

 

Off topic here, but does this information being available to traders just not seem a little wrong. It may be just me but it feels  like going to an auction with everyone around you knowing what is the most you can bid. Not a direct comparison but still feels that way.

 

On topic. Is it the big stake that FFH has in this company holding it back. I can't see how all its peers can move so much and

FBK just sits there.

 

Dan

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OT (off topic): not sure what u mean, but those data are available if you are willing to pay or your brokerage willing to give out for free.

 

Random thoughts:

- I can't remember the details but I think their term loan actually carries higher than 7% rate.

- Retiring 50% saves 1.5m, the whole pack will be 3m or about 3 cents per shares - should translate to 20 cents if u use 7x. But the market doesn't care much.

- Their loan is now in Canadian - so lowering USD no longer means less debt in absolute term.

- one more year (end of 2012)- they can be (almost) debt free and generate 20 cash flow per quarter = 20 cents - a 6 dollar stock if u ask me.

- then the power revenue will come online plus the economy will be so good that RBK will be selling like gold. - $$10.

 

Enjoy! (I struggle a bit on whether I should post this - since I plan to add to my position in next couple weeks but can't be selfish!).

 

;D

 

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On topic. Is it the big stake that FFH has in this company holding it back. I can't see how all its peers can move so much and

FBK just sits there.

 

I think part of the problem is that nearly all the shareholders are probably value types, and at this point that is holding the stock down.  A catalyst is really needed to get it moving. 

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OT (off topic): not sure what u mean, but those data are available if you are willing to pay or your brokerage willing to give out for free.

 

 

 

Not sure that I can fully explain, it's more of a gut feeling. It feels like an auction house that has people in the crowd bidding things up. I realize it's not quite the same, but can't shake the feeling. Maybe it's because the brokers are buying and selling for themselves also on the information. I will say that a lot of things are allowed and available in the market, but that fact doesn't always make them right.  ;)

 

Dan

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annual results....

 

LONGUEUIL, QC, Feb. 8 /CNW Telbec/ - Fibrek (Toronto:FBK.TO) will release its 2010 fourth quarter and annual results after market hours on Wednesday, February 23, 2011.  President and Chief Executive Officer, Pierre Gabriel Côté, and Patsie Ducharme, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will host a conference call on Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) to discuss financial results.  Members of the financial community will be able to access the conference call and ask questions.  Media representatives may attend as listeners only.

OPEN TO:  Analysts, investors and all interested parties

DATE:    Thursday, February 24, 2011

TIME:  10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time)

CALL: 

416-644-3425 (FOR ALL TORONTO AND OVERSEAS PARTICIPANTS)

1-877-974-0445, access code 4404338# (FOR ALL OTHER NORTH AMERICAN CALLS)

  Please dial-in 15 minutes before the conference call begins.

 

Participants not able to listen to the live call can access a replay of the archived call by calling 1-877-289-8525, access code 4404338#. The replay will be available from Thursday, February 24, 2011, 1 p.m. until Thursday, March 3rd, 2011, 11:59 p.m.

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Not sure that I can fully explain, it's more of a gut feeling. It feels like an auction house that has people in the crowd bidding things up.

 

Dan, the market is an auction with crowds of buyers bidding things up and sellers driving things down.  That is how it is supposed to work.  The point at which a bid meets an asking price is when a sale happens.  An auction is an excellent way to describe it. There isn't anything wrong with that at all.  More information is always a good thing not a bad thing, (for the people that have the information anyway).

 

--Eric

 

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