goldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Ericopoly: any thoughts about HPQ's quarter and projects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 HPQ getting pounded after hours. Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 HPQ getting pounded after hours. Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. What do you think of their strategy Myth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest VAL9000 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 HPQ getting pounded after hours. Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. I thought all the "pounding" at HP left along with Mark Hurd and Jodie Fisher. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 HPQ getting pounded after hours. Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. I thought all the "pounding" at HP left along with Mark Hurd and Jodie Fisher. ;) :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Ericopoly: any thoughts about HPQ's quarter and projects? They are making good money for the time being, about $1.24 per share for the quarter (this is their non-GAAP number) -- which is an increase of 14%. Consumer PC sales were down 24% YoY. However, I don't see how WebOS is going to succeed. They will just have to wait for Windows 8 tablet to save their PSG sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 They repurchased 64 million shares for 2.7B$ (around 42.50$ a share). I like their focus on reintroducing focus on innovation and looking for margins in services. Would you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 HPQ getting pounded after hours. Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. What do you think of their strategy Myth? LOL Val. Aside from all the jokes. Honestly I have no idea. I see where HPQ and DELL are going, but I am in no positions to really analysis any of these giants, and in no condition to buy with convection / confidence. This sector is quite interesting. All of it is trading below a PE of 10 (if you net out cash), and all of it is growing to some degree. You also have the fact that 50 billion and 100 billion market cap stocks wont stay cheap forever. Maybe not a PE of 15 - 20, but at least 12 - 14 makes sense. DELL and HP suffer from the same thing, though it seems as though DELL is a bit further along, and cheaper if we do our cash magic. It seems like everyone wants to be IBM. So many product lines, so competitive, and so much trapped cash (with the exception of HP), makes it tough for a guy to get to the bottom of these giants. I will likely eventually take a shot gun approach and buy small stakes (2%) in 4-5. My brother works for HP in the large servers devision, I plan to have a beer with him tonight, though he is quite low in the organization so I dont think it will be very fruitful. Funny enough I asked him why they were trying to create an OS and why they bought Palm, he was like we are HP. I think they will fail and end up with Windows or Android. Times have changed, inmo consumers dont like relearning new OSes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S2S Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 It seems like just a matter of time before HPQ buys out SAP or perhaps a smaller service-oriented provider. And the price will be anything but cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 They repurchased 64 million shares for 2.7B$ (around 42.50$ a share). I like their focus on reintroducing focus on innovation and looking for margins in services. Would you agree? Don't forget to look at the $774m they've issued the past 6 months under employee stock plans -- comes to $4,202b retired combined Q1 and Q2. However, that's still quite a bit... at this pace buybacks reduce the share count by 10.5%, which drives EPS by 11.2% (at today's stock price). Starting at $5 2011 EPS (non-GAAP), they need 12% annualized growth in EPS to get above their $7 2014 target. Need: 12% to hit 2014 target. Get: 11.2% from buybacks alone at current 2011 pace Delta: 0.8% Wall Street has very low faith in HP execution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Need: 12% to hit 2014 target. Get: 11.2% from buybacks alone at current 2011 pace Delta: 0.8% Wall Street has very low faith in HP execution. Sharp man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 HPQ getting pounded after hours. Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. What do you think of their strategy Myth? LOL Val. Aside from all the jokes. Honestly I have no idea. I see where HPQ and DELL are going, but I am in no positions to really analysis any of these giants, and in no condition to buy with convection / confidence. This sector is quite interesting. All of it is trading below a PE of 10 (if you net out cash), and all of it is growing to some degree. You also have the fact that 50 billion and 100 billion market cap stocks wont stay cheap forever. Maybe not a PE of 15 - 20, but at least 12 - 14 makes sense. DELL and HP suffer from the same thing, though it seems as though DELL is a bit further along, and cheaper if we do our cash magic. It seems like everyone wants to be IBM. So many product lines, so competitive, and so much trapped cash (with the exception of HP), makes it tough for a guy to get to the bottom of these giants. I will likely eventually take a shot gun approach and buy small stakes (2%) in 4-5. My brother works for HP in the large servers devision, I plan to have a beer with him tonight, though he is quite low in the organization so I dont think it will be very fruitful. Funny enough I asked him why they were trying to create an OS and why they bought Palm, he was like we are HP. I think they will fail and end up with Windows or Android. Times have changed, inmo consumers dont like relearning new OSes. Good thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 DELL crushes EPS estimates in latest quarter. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/17/dell-idUSN1721952420110517?feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43 That is $2.20 annualized vs current average estimate of $1.70. Then you have $4 a share (fully diluted) in net cash. So you can buy DELL with roughly the same P/E as HPQ while DELL has cash and HPQ has debt and DELL has clearly turned around while the other one is likely to enter a period of disappointing earnings, sales and restructuring charges. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 DELL crushes EPS estimates in latest quarter. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/17/dell-idUSN1721952420110517?feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43 That is $2.20 annualized vs current average estimate of $1.70. Then you have $4 a share (fully diluted) in net cash. So you can buy DELL with roughly the same P/E as HPQ while DELL has cash and HPQ has debt and DELL has clearly turned around while the other one is likely to enter a period of disappointing earnings, sales and restructuring charges. Cardboard That is a good way of putting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 DELL crushes EPS estimates in latest quarter. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/17/dell-idUSN1721952420110517?feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43 That is $2.20 annualized vs current average estimate of $1.70. Then you have $4 a share (fully diluted) in net cash. So you can buy DELL with roughly the same P/E as HPQ while DELL has cash and HPQ has debt and DELL has clearly turned around while the other one is likely to enter a period of disappointing earnings, sales and restructuring charges. Cardboard That is a good way of putting it. Now you guys see why I own all Dell and no HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Now you guys see why I own all Dell and no HP. Congrats on DELL it is a big position for me too. I actually read your posts with lots of interest a while ago. So thanks for your precious input! I am accumulating some HPQ now as the price gets crushed. In a while it could look ridiculously undervalued too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It seems that Bill was a strong proponent of the Skype deal which isn't surprising. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13434352 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Now you guys see why I own all Dell and no HP. Congrats on DELL it is a big position for me too. I actually read your posts with lots of interest a while ago. So thanks for your precious input! I am accumulating some HPQ now as the price gets crushed. In a while it could look ridiculously undervalued too... Yeah, the crushing of HPQ has gotten me interested in it as well. I may have to do some more in-depth research on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It seems that Bill was a strong proponent of the Skype deal which isn't surprising. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13434352 Yeah, this is what I keep talking about. These strategic decisions that tech companies have to make are never understood by the Street, or most value investors even. They only look at numbers in front of their eyes and then criticize ad nauseam. DELL/HPQ/3Par/Compellent INTC/McAffee MSFT/Skype All examples of the Street not understanding that there is a difference between being a business man and being an investor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It seems that Bill was a strong proponent of the Skype deal which isn't surprising. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13434352 Yeah, this is what I keep talking about. These strategic decisions that tech companies have to make are never understood by the Street, or most value investors even. They only look at numbers in front of their eyes and then criticize ad nauseam. DELL/HPQ/3Par/Compellent INTC/McAffee MSFT/Skype All examples of the Street not understanding that there is a difference between being a business man and being an investor. Well spoken (especially with Software technologies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I think the moral of the story is when it comes to tech listen to Txlaw. TX - Dell is not getting pounded afterhours ;D (I know, growup) and looks to have gotten away judging by how its running. Congrats to you and the FFH team. Which of the other beat up cheap large caps do you like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I think the moral of the story is when it comes to tech listen to Txlaw. TxSoftLaw ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cnbc-22844419/hp-cuts-full-year-outlook-25255464;_ylt=Av252cYo1WdrFJqA18FLbyi7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTExaGRpOWNiBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN2aWRlb3MEc2xrA2hwY3V0c2Z1bGwteQ-- I found interesting in this interview that Leo Apotheker explains that he believes that the PC will remain the main device out there (off course HP being the leader in PC sales, he has to be buyest, but still...). Commercial PC sales are strong and he believes that we are in the middle of the cycle for businesses. Their tablet strategy doesn't look that good to me either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 Here is an interesting perspective looking at Google Chrome and its possible impact on Windows. Summary: "Maybe some very cost-conscious schools and businesses might force users to switch to Chrome, but for the vast majority, as long as Office is not challenged, neither is Windows." http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2011/05/can-googles-chromebook-break-windows.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It's the Windows laptop market that is getting hurt the most. Things that will reinvigorate sales are new models incorporating solid state drives and power sipping processors. Trouble is, I hunted around for a model with a solid state drive and could only come up with Samsung's Series 9. SSDs are still quite expensive relatively, but that should come down rapidly. SSDs fix many of the Windows complaints, such as boot time and resume time. When "asleep", the power is actually completely off, so you can swap out the battery for example. Then it takes only three seconds to resume. In other words, you would very infrequently go through a full boot sequence, which is 60% faster anyhow. Airplane travel gets better when sleep is full power off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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