QLEAP Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 "I don't know much about Window's new phone, but I suggest it may be very hard to get people to part with their iPhone's. Are they addressing any problem that apple does not address or add features that the iPhone cannot compete with?" Shane, that probably addresses the NA/Europe mobile markets only. I am yet to see the iPhone make a dent in Indian/Chinese market - it is way too overpriced where price vs value is a big factor. Samsung with Galaxy/Android platform is beating its pants off in the high end segment in India while Nokia and Chinese clones capture the lower end. I think Nokia/Samsung with Windows platform will be a huge winner in India as well - a third ecosystem and an alternative choice to Android for customers. Remember, China and India are the largest markets for mobile phones and MSFT is collecting license fees from Android phones also. China is Apple's largest market after the US. It is a huge success despite being available only on the 2nd largest operator network. There was such a crowd at teh 4S launch that Apple had to stop selling the phones at its stores. Apple is in talks with the largest carrier (China Mobile, I think) to offer the iPhone later this year. Valueinv, You are right about the Chinese market being second largest for Apple. In terms of market share, I think Nokia/Samsung still hold the major share of the smartphone market in China. But I also recognize that Apple does not need to sell high volumes to be a success. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 valueinv - Thank you for that, I agree with everything you posted. To me Office is the critical component of MSFT's moat. I do not believe that the laptop will be replaced by tablet's or smartphones as I use excel everyday and need the operating space, as do many others. Apple's slight changes to excel have made me keep two seperate laptop's, one for entertainment (Apple) and one for work (PC), if I had to choose it would be an easy choice to keep my work laptop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 valueinv - Thank you for that, I agree with everything you posted. To me Office is the critical component of MSFT's moat. I do not believe that the laptop will be replaced by tablet's or smartphones as I use excel everyday and need the operating space, as do many others. Apple's slight changes to excel have made me keep two seperate laptop's, one for entertainment (Apple) and one for work (PC), if I had to choose it would be an easy choice to keep my work laptop... Again segmentation is your friend. There is a class of less sophisticated users for whom the tablet is powerful enough and can replace the laptop. Tablets pretty much killed the netbook and you are beginning to see them cannibalize laptops and PC sales. Personally, I'm with you, they are not powerful or big enough for me and they still need to solve the text entry problem. But in a few years, they will be powerful enough to replace PCs. In fact, that is where Apple's biggest opportunity lies, not in smartphones. We have seen this again and again. The smaller, less powerful machine replaces the bigger one. Mainframes-> Minicomputers->PCs->laptops. Remember, there was a time when PCs were considered toys, not powerful enough for serious work. Today they are orders of magnitude more powerful than mainframes 30 years a ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Does anyone have any thoughts on MSFT's strategy to compete in markets where a clear dominant player already exists? The people I am around LOVE their iPhones, my friends say "Google it" instead of search it. I see those two businesses as highly entrenched. Bing has been gaining market share but it is still a small player to Google globally. I don't see anything that MSFT is bringing to the table to convince people to leave the products they have a strong affection for. I don't know much about Window's new phone, but I suggest it may be very hard to get people to part with their iPhone's. Are they addressing any problem that apple does not address or add features that the iPhone cannot compete with? I looked up Windows 8 phone and it appears details are lacking from MSFT on it so far, anyone have a useful link they care to share? Maybe I was wrong to say they haven't done anything innovative, they just haven't done anything innovative that I have found impressive. I don't have much confidence in their ability to compete with google in search of apple on phone's and wish they left that money to shareholders. I think there is money to be made on MSFT at today's price, but I would say that is in spite of their capital allocation. Over the past few months several of my friends moved to Android, all of them cite just one reason: After using iPhone for so many years they are sick of it and want something new. They are very likely to try the Windows phone if it is sufficiently good. Windows phone does not have to be the best to get a fairly good market share, they just have to ensure it is close to par. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Vinod1 - I could see that happening to a small extent, but unless the windows phone is truly better I don't know if they will get enough for them to get a good IRR. If people are only switching to try something new then the revenue stream created from the windows phone might be extremely short if another company introduces something else. I'd view that as a kicker more than anything I would count on. It is interesting to think of china and india though, evidently the iPhone isn't as much of a contender there so there can be real opportunity. This has been a helpful discussion for me, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It is interesting to think of china and india though, evidently the iPhone isn't as much of a contender there er...this was the line at an Apple store in China last week at the iPhone 4S launch. I'd say the iPhone is doing just fine in China. http://hitechanalogy.com/wp-content/uploads/apple_store_xidan_joy_city_iphone_4s.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Vinod1 - I could see that happening to a small extent, but unless the windows phone is truly better I don't know if they will get enough for them to get a good IRR. If people are only switching to try something new then the revenue stream created from the windows phone might be extremely short if another company introduces something else. I'd view that as a kicker more than anything I would count on. It is interesting to think of china and india though, evidently the iPhone isn't as much of a contender there so there can be real opportunity. This has been a helpful discussion for me, thanks. I do not disagree with you. I see no lasting loyalty to mobile phones by users. It is more like women's fashion. At different periods I see different phones becoming popular. The history of mobile phones has though very limited, has been consistent with this theme. Motorola, Nokia, Apple... I would think others including Microsoft having their turn at some point in the future. As phones get more sophisticated, the degree of differentiation between #1 and #2, #3, #4 would be considerably narrowed and people would not pay that much of a premium for the #1 phone at that point. As Greenwald says, everything is a toaster in the long run. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Vinod1 - I could see that happening to a small extent, but unless the windows phone is truly better I don't know if they will get enough for them to get a good IRR. If people are only switching to try something new then the revenue stream created from the windows phone might be extremely short if another company introduces something else. I'd view that as a kicker more than anything I would count on. It is interesting to think of china and india though, evidently the iPhone isn't as much of a contender there so there can be real opportunity. This has been a helpful discussion for me, thanks. I do not disagree with you. I see no lasting loyalty to mobile phones by users. It is more like women's fashion. At different periods I see different phones becoming popular. The history of mobile phones has though very limited, has been consistent with this theme. Motorola, Nokia, Apple... I would think others including Microsoft having their turn at some point in the future. As phones get more sophisticated, the degree of differentiation between #1 and #2, #3, #4 would be considerably narrowed and people would not pay that much of a premium for the #1 phone at that point. As Greenwald says, everything is a toaster in the long run. Vinod http://apple-scene.com/iphone-users-show-more-loyalty-than-android-blackberry-owners.html These are still early days. Phones are platforms which will increase switching costs as they diverge. Expect the iPhone to get even more sticky. Things like iCloud, the new iBooks, Siri (with all your personal knowledge) will make it difficult to switch in a few years. How does Greenwald explain the Mac? Apple still commands a premium after all these years while continuing to increase marketshare. Even if their marketshare is smaller, Apple makes a disproportionate amount of industry products, giving you an idea of the premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben Graham Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ‘Video Everywhere’ Gets Another Boost By QUENTIN HARDY | January 18, 2012, Polycom, best known for table top phones in conference rooms, aims to pressure Cisco as the two fight over sales of cheap and easy to use videoconferencing software for small businesses and telephone companies. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/video-everywhere-gets-another-boost/?partner=yahoofinance * * * * * Polycom is the only company that provides scalable HD voice and HD video integration in enterprise and company-to-company environments with Microsoft Unified Communications including Microsoft® Lync™ Server 2010, Microsoft Exchange Server 2010, and Microsoft SharePoint® Server 2010. Polycom website: http://www.polycom.com/partners/strategic_global_alliances/polycom_microsoft_alliance.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Actually, that isn't true, LifeSize (now owned by Logitech) does the same thing for cheaper than (or at least as cheap as) Polycom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Windows Phone to bump iPhone by 2015 http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9223548/Windows_Phone_to_bump_iPhone_for_second_place_in_15_IHS_predicts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Windows Phone to bump iPhone by 2015 http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9223548/Windows_Phone_to_bump_iPhone_for_second_place_in_15_IHS_predicts Are they just pulling number out of a hat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Some great viral marketing out of CES this week. Microsoft offered $100 cash to anyone whose smartphone could beat a Windows Phone in any one of a variety of everyday tasks. Article here: http://www.technobuffalo.com/companies/microsoft/windows-phone/microsoft-embarrasses-competition-in-100-windows-phone-speed-tests-at-ces/ Amusing video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQZww_C6Zgg http://techielobang.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/smoke_windows_phone.jpg They should definitely make this into an advertising campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
returnonmycapital Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't know if it has been mentioned previously here or in the RIMM thread but with Windows 8, Windows phone and Microsoft's presence in the business user market through Offfice, wouldn't Blackberry's relevance be increasingly questioned? I'm not an emotional sort but I can't help feeling a little excited about MSFT's prospects. Whether it only serves to protect its moat or expand it is a different question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
treasurehunt Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Windows Phone to bump iPhone by 2015 http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9223548/Windows_Phone_to_bump_iPhone_for_second_place_in_15_IHS_predicts Are they just pulling number out of a hat? As an owner of Microsoft stock, I hope IHS is right, but these predictions are worth very little. Take a look at this IHS prediction from August 2010: http://www.isuppli.com/Mobile-and-Wireless-Communications/News/Pages/Googles-Android-to-Outstrip-Apples-iOS-by-2012-iSuppli-Forecasts.aspx. Here's their main prediction: "Android will be used in 75 million smart phones by 2012, up from 5 million in 2009. Meanwhile, iOS usage will amount to 62 million in 2012, up from 25 million in 2009. This will give Android a 19.4 percent of the global market for smart phone OSes in 2012, up from 2.7 percent in 2009. Apple’s iOS for the iPhone will see its share rise to 15.9 percent in 2012, up from 13.8 percent in 2009. In 2014, Android’s share of global smart phone OS usage will rise to 22.8 percent, while iOS will decline to 15.3 percent." So IHS was way off on Android market share just a couple of years out. IDC and Gartner did no better. But I guess these guys have to put out forecasts regularly to justify their own existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Good article on the possibilities for Skype: http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2012/01/800-providers-of-telephony-services-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Apple's iPhone Business Alone Is Now Bigger Than All Of Microsoft: http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-bigger-than-microsoft-2012-2#comment-4f2d503ceab8eacf7600002e Which of course makes this even funnier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prunes Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Windows 8: It's a rather an elaborate kind of torture. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/03/15/the_charge_of_the_metro_brigade/ The Metro interface without touch is painful and annoying. Like you, I'd love to see the clan in Redmond figure out that if a touch screen is detected at time of install, the Metro interface is default, whereas if no touch interface is present, it would give you the choice of interface/desktop to use. ... But Microsoft sources tell me that it's non-negotiable. They also shed light on the strange, twisty logic that is impelling Microsoft to its fate. The strategic thinking goes like this: Microsoft needs brute force to coerce a touch-based "ecosystem" into existence, and it's using Windows as the battering ram. Microsoft fears that if it loses "touch" to the iPad and iPhone and Android, then it loses its place in the consumer space altogether. These tablets are increasingly capable of content creation, it notes. And because of this, Microsoft is going to force-feed Windows 8 to millions of PC users on non-touch devices, for whom Metro is nothing but a hindrance, in the hope that the market provides content and applications "designed for Metro". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Windows 8: It's a rather an elaborate kind of torture. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/03/15/the_charge_of_the_metro_brigade/ The Metro interface without touch is painful and annoying. Like you, I'd love to see the clan in Redmond figure out that if a touch screen is detected at time of install, the Metro interface is default, whereas if no touch interface is present, it would give you the choice of interface/desktop to use. ... But Microsoft sources tell me that it's non-negotiable. They also shed light on the strange, twisty logic that is impelling Microsoft to its fate. The strategic thinking goes like this: Microsoft needs brute force to coerce a touch-based "ecosystem" into existence, and it's using Windows as the battering ram. Microsoft fears that if it loses "touch" to the iPad and iPhone and Android, then it loses its place in the consumer space altogether. These tablets are increasingly capable of content creation, it notes. And because of this, Microsoft is going to force-feed Windows 8 to millions of PC users on non-touch devices, for whom Metro is nothing but a hindrance, in the hope that the market provides content and applications "designed for Metro". Metro on the desktop worries me: I can how having a single environment will help them strategically in mobile. However, they've created a huge learning curve for users, not to mention all the incompatibility headaches for enterprises. This is a big gamble and could end badly. It has me rethinking my position in MSFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 My guess is they're going to have a hard time getting businesses to upgrade to Windows 8 from Windows 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodlum Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 My guess is they're going to have a hard time getting businesses to upgrade to Windows 8 from Windows 7. Businesses will just continue using the Classic interface so Metro is a non-issue. The biggest enhancement for Windows 8 and the Server 8 is related to the integration of Hyper-V's virtual environment. On the server side our company has already reached some of the limits of Windows 2008 Hyper-V and we will have to move to Server 8 sometime next year. Hyper-V on the client side also has benefits for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 My guess is they're going to have a hard time getting businesses to upgrade to Windows 8 from Windows 7. Businesses will just continue using the Classic interface so Metro is a non-issue. The biggest enhancement for Windows 8 and the Server 8 is related to the integration of Hyper-V's virtual environment. On the server side our company has already reached some of the limits of Windows 2008 Hyper-V and we will have to move to Server 8 sometime next year. Hyper-V on the client side also has benefits for business. From the testers I've talked to, it is hard to just use the classic interface as there is no start bar or program interface anymore. The complaint has been that you have to go back into metro every time you want to do something and then get back out to get into classic with whatever you launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 to be clear, I wasn't saying the new interface was hard, just that it was reportedly hard to skip metro and simply use the classic interface, as suggested by Hoodlum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 My guess is they're going to have a hard time getting businesses to upgrade to Windows 8 from Windows 7. Businesses will just continue using the Classic interface so Metro is a non-issue. The biggest enhancement for Windows 8 and the Server 8 is related to the integration of Hyper-V's virtual environment. On the server side our company has already reached some of the limits of Windows 2008 Hyper-V and we will have to move to Server 8 sometime next year. Hyper-V on the client side also has benefits for business. From the testers I've talked to, it is hard to just use the classic interface as there is no start bar or program interface anymore. The complaint has been that you have to go back into metro every time you want to do something and then get back out to get into classic with whatever you launch. the reason you here that is it's new and people aren't used to it. it's so simple once you figure out a few key concepts. everything new is "hard". until it becomes old hat. Have you used it? Why do you feel its better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prunes Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 My guess is they're going to have a hard time getting businesses to upgrade to Windows 8 from Windows 7. My Fortune 100 hasn't upgraded from XP and Office 2003... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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