Am I the only one here who's had a rubbish first Half of the year?

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Biggest holdings are Fairfax, Fairfax India, Exor, Bitcoin, Prosus & Alibaba, and Molina Healthcare. 

All have been miserable to flat YTD. 

 

BTC leg of a mid Feb pair trade sold at around USD 89K (via a BTC-ETF), the o/g leg put on shortly before the Iran war. While analytics helped with the decision, the reality is that much of it was luck ... and exposing ourselves to it (tail risk). Long straddles .....

 

Good luck.

 

SD

Edited 22 hours ago by SharperDingaan

[Castanza]

On 7/1/2026 at 10:00 AM, Gamecock-YT said:

A crowded trade is still a crowded trade, even if the crowd has a high IQ.

 

On 7/1/2026 at 8:42 AM, Gamecock-YT said:

"You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform."

 

What's the litmus test for "being crowded?" Fairfax gets almost no mention outside of this site, but that's rare for an equity. At the same time if you spend time on X.com (I no longer do) it's not hard to find yourself in some reinforcing algo cycle of being pitched value stocks (many of which I see on here) by specific accounts. So it does make me wonder.....is the retail market becoming more.....influencer, algo, efficiently driven "influeicient"? And how is the "algo push" bleeding into other areas (this site etc.) of idea generation? 

[Eldad]

4 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

 

What's the litmus test for "being crowded?" Fairfax gets almost no mention outside of this site, but that's rare for an equity. At the same time if you spend time on X.com (I no longer do) it's not hard to find yourself in some reinforcing algo cycle of being pitched value stocks (many of which I see on here) by specific accounts. So it does make me wonder.....is the retail market becoming more.....influencer, algo, efficiently driven "influeicient"? And how is the "algo push" bleeding into other areas (this site etc.) of idea generation? 

Good point. I have noticed on the YouTube type investing shows/podcasts they all mention the same tired points or most obvious moats on stocks and act like it’s a big secret that they constantly explain over and over on all the different shows. Like they are all only learning from each other. I get the sense that there is not much reading or real work going on out there. If my kids (7yo - 13yo) are any indication, deep reading is about to become a very rare super power if it is not already. 

[Milu]

41 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Good point. I have noticed on the YouTube type investing shows/podcasts they all mention the same tired points or most obvious moats on stocks and act like it’s a big secret that they constantly explain over and over on all the different shows. Like they are all only learning from each other. I get the sense that there is not much reading or real work going on out there. If my kids (7yo - 13yo) are any indication, deep reading is about to become a very rare super power if it is not already. 

Add llm's to the mix and now every investor can spew bolded bullet points about how company xyz's moat is invincible, or condensing 10k's and earnings call transcripts into 5 key takeaways, thus missing any real understanding or nuance. I actually think next few years could be a fruitful experience for the genuinely good investors. 

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Milu said:

Add llm's to the mix and now every investor can spew bolded bullet points about how company xyz's moat is invincible, or condensing 10k's and earnings call transcripts into 5 key takeaways, thus missing any real understanding or nuance. I actually think next few years could be a fruitful experience for the genuinely good investors. 

This is the absolute worst. Im already completely tired of having to engage with people whom think like this. If youre using AI to make investments, I dont want to waste my time discussing them with you LOL

 

Like dont get me wrong, it's a helpful tool at times, as a cog, but making your judgment calls based on "what Ai says" is pure stupidity.