RF&L - Ranches, Farms & Land

[Marco Van Basten]

25 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Definitely something to this. 
 

The old families in Germany that still have money today only made it through WW1, Weimar Republic inflation, Nazi Germany, and WW2 by having productive land. They would have lost everything multiple times over in securities. 
 

In a hardcore wealth redistribution environment. Likely the last thing they will take would be your home place land that you work and manage. It was the last thing the Bolsheviks and the Maoists took. 
 

Also, it may be nice to have a separate, peaceful place to live and spend your time as the world in the city may devolve into something not very fun. 

Yes, as long as it was not in East Prussia or Silesia, eh?  

[Eldad]

Just now, Marco Van Basten said:

Yes, as long as it was not in East Prussia or Silesia, eh?  

Yes Junkers we’re screwed and probably deserved it. 
 

In my area of the world you can get pine plantation land that provides a fairly reliable 6% zero coupon bond like return plus the inflation on the land value. You also get flexibility and entertainment and it is very close to a hands off passive investment. I am actively looking right now as my mind has kind of shifted from highest returns possible to capital preservation. 

[gfp]

The best defense for AI disruption is not needing a white collar / knowledge worker job.  I am amazed by how many posters on this message board are looking at markets all day and posting here constantly and still apparently have full time jobs they are drawing a paycheck from an employer for.  What percentage of your time are you even devoting to your W2 work??? 

 

I've always found that crazy.  No clue what many of you do for a living but it certainly doesn't appear to require very much of your time or attention

[Eldad]

48 minutes ago, gfp said:

The best defense for AI disruption is not needing a white collar / knowledge worker job.  I am amazed by how many posters on this message board are looking at markets all day and posting here constantly and still apparently have full time jobs they are drawing a paycheck from an employer for.  What percentage of your time are you even devoting to your W2 work??? 

 

I've always found that crazy.  No clue what many of you do for a living but it certainly doesn't appear to require very much of your time or attention

Hahaha get to work! 

[Spooky]

3 hours ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

I don’t think in such a scenario your rights to a lot of land you don’t inhabit would do any good. I always wondered why there wasn’t a prepping topic on COBF. 

 

Agreed, better to buy guns, bullets and seeds. Form a Posse.

[Red Lion]

23 hours ago, gfp said:

I own a third of a corn & soybean (alternating annually) farm in Indiana and am not getting more bullish on this stupid farmland investment because of AI.  If you want to focus on commodities, focus on energy and scarce metals. 

 

I think there are definitely some people pulling this off profitably with specialty and value add crops, but by its very nature this is an active investment, and earning a great passive return just isn't going to happen. Earning a good return after accounting for owner hours is also very difficult, particularly if you can earn a lot of money in another way. 

 

Buffett always said something about having to be the low cost producer if you're going to invest in commodity producers (e.g. corn / soybeans), and that seems pretty much impossible for any but the most entrenched players with the largest landholdings/most efficient use of farm equipment.

 

I think AI could have the potential to partially automate the production of some of the higher value specialty crops. Maybe this just turns specialty products into commodities, or maybe no one gives a shit about developing an AI drone to manually pollinate dragonfruit. 

 

Even without AI, mechanized harvesting of new types of crops has totally shifted the profit potential of certain crops. I was reading about olives, and California pulled out all of the olive plantings because they couldn't be economically harvested by hand. But with the advent of high density hedge plantings and specialized harvesters, olives can now be harvested with very little human labor. 

 

I believe the AI powered drones are already being rolled out to replace crop-dusters. It's not hard for me to imagine autonomous harvesters, sprayers, tractors, logistics, sorting, automated irrigation and fertigation, pest identification, nutrient deficiencies, etc. I'd think as a whole, this would have to increase the efficiency of the already efficient large farm operators. 

 

 

 

 

[gfp]

12 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

I think there are definitely some people pulling this off profitably with specialty and value add crops, but by its very nature this is an active investment, and earning a great passive return just isn't going to happen. Earning a good return after accounting for owner hours is also very difficult, particularly if you can earn a lot of money in another way. 

 

Buffett always said something about having to be the low cost producer if you're going to invest in commodity producers (e.g. corn / soybeans), and that seems pretty much impossible for any but the most entrenched players with the largest landholdings/most efficient use of farm equipment.

 

I think AI could have the potential to partially automate the production of some of the higher value specialty crops. Maybe this just turns specialty products into commodities, or maybe no one gives a shit about developing an AI drone to manually pollinate dragonfruit. 

 

Even without AI, mechanized harvesting of new types of crops has totally shifted the profit potential of certain crops. I was reading about olives, and California pulled out all of the olive plantings because they couldn't be economically harvested by hand. But with the advent of high density hedge plantings and specialized harvesters, olives can now be harvested with very little human labor. 

 

I believe the AI powered drones are already being rolled out to replace crop-dusters. It's not hard for me to imagine autonomous harvesters, sprayers, tractors, logistics, sorting, automated irrigation and fertigation, pest identification, nutrient deficiencies, etc. I'd think as a whole, this would have to increase the efficiency of the already efficient large farm operators. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I assure you our tenant farmer is not earning a good return either.  And we must be about as low cost a producer as we could be - land inherited with next to zero cost basis, property taxes dirt cheap, no debt, $300 per year accounting expense.

[UK]

17 hours ago, Eldad said:

In a hardcore wealth redistribution environment. Likely the last thing they will take would be your home place land that you work and manage. It was the last thing the Bolsheviks and the Maoists took. 

The deportation of land owners in Lithuania refers primarily to the mass repression, forced exile, and confiscation of property carried out by Soviet authorities between 1940 and 1953, with major waves in 1941, 1948, and 1949. During this period, owning land or a farm was considered "kulak" status or "anti-Soviet" activity, making landowners prime targets for exile to Siberia. 
Key Aspects of Land Owner Deportations
The Targets: Victims included farmers, landowners, and their families. The Soviet regime targeted them to eliminate private land ownership and enforce the collectivization of agriculture.
Major Operations:
June 1941: Roughly 17,500 people, including many landowners, were deported just before the Nazi invasion.
May 1948 (Operation "Vesna"): Focused on removing "kulaks" (wealthy farmers) and supporters of the "forest brothers" (partisans), resulting in over 40,000 deportees.
March 1949 (Operation "Priboi"): Targeted the remaining independent farmers to force them into collective farms (kolkhozes), with around 30,000 people deported.
Property Seizure: Upon deportation, land, livestock, and homes were confiscated, transferred to kolkhozes, or sold to cover state expenses.
Conditions: Many, including those deported simply for owning a small farm, were sent to Siberian labor camps (Gulags), where only a fraction survived.
Post-Soviet Restitution: Following the restoration of Lithuanian independence, laws were implemented to return confiscated property or provide compensation to deportees and their heirs. 

[Eldad]

7 hours ago, UK said:

The deportation of land owners in Lithuania refers primarily to the mass repression, forced exile, and confiscation of property carried out by Soviet authorities between 1940 and 1953, with major waves in 1941, 1948, and 1949. During this period, owning land or a farm was considered "kulak" status or "anti-Soviet" activity, making landowners prime targets for exile to Siberia. 
Key Aspects of Land Owner Deportations
The Targets: Victims included farmers, landowners, and their families. The Soviet regime targeted them to eliminate private land ownership and enforce the collectivization of agriculture.
Major Operations:
June 1941: Roughly 17,500 people, including many landowners, were deported just before the Nazi invasion.
May 1948 (Operation "Vesna"): Focused on removing "kulaks" (wealthy farmers) and supporters of the "forest brothers" (partisans), resulting in over 40,000 deportees.
March 1949 (Operation "Priboi"): Targeted the remaining independent farmers to force them into collective farms (kolkhozes), with around 30,000 people deported.
Property Seizure: Upon deportation, land, livestock, and homes were confiscated, transferred to kolkhozes, or sold to cover state expenses.
Conditions: Many, including those deported simply for owning a small farm, were sent to Siberian labor camps (Gulags), where only a fraction survived.
Post-Soviet Restitution: Following the restoration of Lithuanian independence, laws were implemented to return confiscated property or provide compensation to deportees and their heirs. 

Yes I’m aware (that’s why I said taken by the Bolsheviks) But it was some of the last private property taken because they couldn’t have the country starve anymore than they already were (Holodomor). If we are playing the last assets left standing game, then productive land likely will be in most scenarios. 

[UK]

3 hours ago, Eldad said:

Yes I’m aware (that’s why I said taken by the Bolsheviks) But it was some of the last private property taken because they couldn’t have the country starve anymore than they already were (Holodomor). If we are playing the last assets left standing game, then productive land likely will be in most scenarios. 

But this was the exact asset targeted and what get people in trouble, so perhaps I do not understand what do you mean the last property taken. Lots of things were not taken at all. This was also nothing to do with starving, Holodmor was in Ukraine. But anyway, I guess the real problem with land or real estate is that in all really bad scenarious you just can not move it, take it with you, even sell and have to protect it from god knows who, because it is an obvious target, not unlike many other valuable things, you can hide, barter etc. 

 

Edited February 14 by UK

[73 Reds]

13 minutes ago, UK said:

But this was the exact asset targeted and what get people in trouble, so perhaps I do not understand what do you mean the last property taken. Lots of things were not taken at all. This was also nothing to do with starving, Holodmor was in Ukraine. But anyway, I guess the real problem with land or real estate is that in all really bad scenarious you just can not move it, take it with you, even sell and have to protect it from god knows who, because it is an obvious target, not unlike many other valuable things, you can hide, barter etc. 

 

Are your describing a lawless, anything-goes society?  In that case the most valuable assets are weapons and amo, and a reliable form of secure transportation.

[UK]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Are your describing a lawless, anything-goes society?  In that case the most valuable assets are weapons and amo, and a reliable form of secure transportation.

Yea, I thought that it what this discussion was about, not that I expect any sort of such things to happen, at least in US:). 

[Eldad]

14 minutes ago, UK said:

But this was the exact asset targeted and what get people in trouble, so perhaps I do not understand what do you mean the last property taken. Lots of things were not taken at all. This was also nothing to do with starving, Holodmor was in Ukraine. But anyway, I guess the real problem with land or real estate is that in all really bad scenarious you just can not move it, take it with you, even sell and have to protect it from god knows who, because it is an obvious target, not unlike many other valuable things, you can hide, barter etc. 

 

Holodomor was in Ukraine which was a part of the Soviet Union but it was also part of a wider famine in the Soviet Union that was a direct result of  mismanagement and the Dekulakization you speak of. 
 

The Russian Revolution happened in 1917. All Russian corporations, commercial property, bonds, securities were all a zero right then and there. The Kulaks didn’t lose their land until the late 1920s and early 1930s. And when the Bolsheviks did this it caused the largest man made famine in history (because collectivization sucks and the private owners were more efficient) The reason it took so long is because the Bolsheviks knew this would happen as a result. Stalin forced the issue anyway when he consolidated power. 

 

You were completely whipped out in the end anyway but you got to keep your land about a decade longer was my point. I guess if you sold everything in 1916 and somehow got out of the country with your mountain of gold you would have been better off like you say. 

[UK]

https://archive.is/3Ld6J

Indonesia Tightens Grip on Resources with Switzerland-Sized Land Grab

More than 4 million hectares have been seized as President Prabowo Subianto cracks down on malfeasance in the commodities sector.

[Eldad]

In the US there is a strong mythology  of the “family farm”. It is the rational they always give for making the estate tax exemption so high. “We don’t want to force illiquid family farmers to sell out at death.” With the majority of states being mostly rural, I would think the family farm will always be protected in the Senate. 
 

I would think if we move to a wealth tax or tax on assets, there will be large exemptions for family farms for the same reason. 

[tede02]

Like others have said, you can't just buy any land and expect it's going to protect your purchasing power and provide a real rate of return. Don't get me wrong, I live on 35 acres and love it. But I wouldn't be surprised if marginal land in rural areas provides no real return over the next 50 years. One thing I think about a lot is demographics. The projections vary but it looks very possible the global population is going to peak by 2050. Deaths are expected to exceed births in the US starting around 2030. Demand for property in the southern US will probably be strong for decades to come as the population ages and people migrate to warmer areas. But in rural areas in the northern states, man, where is the demand for land going to come from? 

[UK]

6 hours ago, Eldad said:

In the US there is a strong mythology  of the “family farm”. It is the rational they always give for making the estate tax exemption so high. “We don’t want to force illiquid family farmers to sell out at death.” With the majority of states being mostly rural, I would think the family farm will always be protected in the Senate. 
 

I would think if we move to a wealth tax or tax on assets, there will be large exemptions for family farms for the same reason. 

I think it is reasonable bet. Also, US is one of the big countries, which are blessed with farm land and being more than enough food self sufficient.

 

Edited February 17 by UK

[Marco Van Basten]

On 2/13/2026 at 12:10 PM, gfp said:

The best defense for AI disruption is not needing a white collar / knowledge worker job.  I am amazed by how many posters on this message board are looking at markets all day and posting here constantly and still apparently have full time jobs they are drawing a paycheck from an employer for.  What percentage of your time are you even devoting to your W2 work??? 

 

I've always found that crazy.  No clue what many of you do for a living but it certainly doesn't appear to require very much of your time or attention

I think you'd be surprised at the % of people here who don't work for someone.  Also, workload often goes in waves - like a cosine function...

[gfp]

1 minute ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I think you'd be surprised at the % of people here who don't work for someone.  Also, workload often goes in waves - like a cosine function...

 

I think I have a pretty good handle on it.  I'm not surprised by the percentage of people on this board that don't work for someone - there are plenty of full time investors, self employed hustlers and retirees on this board.  I'm surprised by the percentage of the people who I know have full time jobs that spend so much of their time during the work day not doing whatever that job they are being paid a full time wage for is.

 

Kind of dovetails with that big trend during the pandemic remote work era where people were taking two full time jobs with two full time paychecks (and carefully keeping it a secret on LinkedIn so their employer(s) wouldn't find out) because who really devotes a full work day to their employer when working from home?

[bizaro86]

On 2/17/2026 at 7:19 AM, gfp said:

 

I think I have a pretty good handle on it.  I'm not surprised by the percentage of people on this board that don't work for someone - there are plenty of full time investors, self employed hustlers and retirees on this board.  I'm surprised by the percentage of the people who I know have full time jobs that spend so much of their time during the work day not doing whatever that job they are being paid a full time wage for is.

 

Kind of dovetails with that big trend during the pandemic remote work era where people were taking two full time jobs with two full time paychecks (and carefully keeping it a secret on LinkedIn so their employer(s) wouldn't find out) because who really devotes a full work day to their employer when working from home?

 

I sort of fit all 3 of those categories depending on the day. Leaves lots of time for posting online. Definitely not enough time in the day to have a job though.

[gfp]

10 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I sort of fit all 3 of those categories depending on the day. Leaves lots of time for posting online. Definitely not enough time in the day to have a job though.

 

Jobs are for bots!  You've already future-proofed yourself

[Red Lion]

I know this is a bit off topic, but wouldn't the railroad sort of fit in this category? I get that they aren't ranches/farmland/timberland per se, but they are certainly irreplaceable real estate assets that would presumably still see utilization with our robot utopia. 

[Eldad]

43 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

I know this is a bit off topic, but wouldn't the railroad sort of fit in this category? I get that they aren't ranches/farmland/timberland per se, but they are certainly irreplaceable real estate assets that would presumably still see utilization with our robot utopia. 

Yes probably why they are very expensive right now. 

[thepupil]

11 hours ago, Red Lion said:

I know this is a bit off topic, but wouldn't the railroad sort of fit in this category? I get that they aren't ranches/farmland/timberland per se, but they are certainly irreplaceable real estate assets that would presumably still see utilization with our robot utopia. 

the thing is when you put a proper doomer hat on, nothing is safe.

 

railroads are regulated monopolies except they don’t have capped RoE’s in the formal way that utilities do. 
 

you think when everyone loses their job,  people are just gonna sit there and let the railroads print high RoE’s with low effective tax rates? You think the consumer class is going to be buying enough stuff to support rail volumes? 
 

 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

1 Second After is a entertaining read. It takes place in the area where I live, so it felt a little more real being able to envision it all.