RF&L - Ranches, Farms & Land

[Red Lion]

3 hours ago, thepupil said:

the thing is when you put a proper doomer hat on, nothing is safe.

 

railroads are regulated monopolies except they don’t have capped RoE’s in the formal way that utilities do. 
 

you think when everyone loses their job,  people are just gonna sit there and let the railroads print high RoE’s with low effective tax rates? You think the consumer class is going to be buying enough stuff to support rail volumes? 
 

 

 

I think you have a good point, but with our doomer hats on, an asset that takes a drawn down but remains critically important to the new robot economy at least survives (without a ton of leverage). 

 

It doesn't seem like currency or sovereign bonds or stocks are fully immune to this development. 

 

I think the market is freaking out about the LLM/Agent revolution, but it seems to me that robotics and automation could be the most disruptive phase yet in the Industrial Revolution. 

 

I don't know how to play it, I've got a chunk of real estate, some stocks, and a big stake in a private business. I'm most confident that my real estate won't be worthless, but the jury's still out on whether it is actually an acceptable long term investment. I suspect stocks will continue to do OK long term, but there's a lot of risk for serious sector rotation. Unfortunately I don't have any edge in picking AI stocks, so I'm just looking to buy good growing businesses where I don't see AI blowing them up in the short term.