Tegridy Value LP

[whatstheofficerproblem]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I looked at his report and what do you think is so great about it?. All these independent ad resellers or platforms seem to be struggling.

 

CTV cannibalizing DV+, one of the key tenants of the bear case here is that DV+ will be rendered useless because AI is most of the traffic now. DV+ growth still +ve, though there is deceleration, in a couple of years CTV will take over DV+. SSP side of the equation is consolidating, there will be only 3 players left at best so matter of time this becomes an oligopoly. I don't plan on holding this forever as this trade for me mostly pertains to Brinkema's remedy.

 

Now you might be wondering if DV+ is going to become deminimis then why kang onto the GOOGL suit, point is that it's not -ve growth yet and the absolute dollar value accretion from the suit which will be ex-cost for these is just too juicy. Stock will go past $20 before year end imo, you have tailwinds from CTV, which imo should get stronger as NFLX is no longer tied up in the WBD acquisition mess, and then the dying DV+ will get a lifeline and start flowing through thanks to GOOGL's dam breaking. 

[Spekulatius]

@whatstheofficerproblem Thx.I had a small position in TTD but bailed before earnings at a ~20% loss, partly because of post from you and others.

 

I have a CTV operating on Google TV and the ad targeting comes from Google and is very good. I log in this as well as YouTube ( which I watch on TV) and the adds are related to Google searches I do on other devices. I was for example looking at a new Subaru car for my wife and the TV was serving me adds from Subaru dealers in the areas including the one I talked to. It’s a bit scary from a privacy perspective but also hugely effective.

 

TTD’s problem is that it’s not connected to an existing ecosystem. I think they need to combine with Roku or a differnt player or risk of getting pushed aside by Amazon and Google.

Edited March 1 by Spekulatius

[whatstheofficerproblem]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

TTD’s problem is that it’s not connected to an existing ecosystem. I think they need to combine with Roku or a differnt player or risk of getting pushed aside by Amazon and Google.

 

Agree, but broadly speaking, TTD's problem is that they became the very thing they sought to disrupt and their own customers hate them for it. The DSP side is very lucrative so AMZN & co will and already are eating their lunch. I still remember TTD being consider invincible at close to $150. Been shorting this turd since beginning of last year and my god is it a gift that keeps on giving.

 

I'd say both the SSP & DSP platforms are not worth owning if your play is a long term thesis. So much can change so easily that it's just not worth the headache. 

[gfp]

You got your photonics deal news from NVDA putting some money into LITE and COHR.  I still think COHR is in the weaker competitive position of the two.  Looks like their markets caps are about equal.

 

You still holding COHR in your "fund"?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

11 minutes ago, gfp said:

I still think COHR is in the weaker competitive position of the two.  Looks like their markets caps are about equal.

 

You still holding COHR in your "fund"?

 

Yes, how is COHR in a weaker position lol. They have more of a moat vs LITE in the sense they're vertically integrated.

[Spekulatius]

On 3/2/2026 at 9:51 AM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

Yes, how is COHR in a weaker position lol. They have more of a moat vs LITE in the sense they're vertically integrated.

Lumentum seems ahead in terms

of product offerings. Being totally integrated is only better if everything in house is state of the art. I don’t think that’s the case with Coherent.

Edited March 3 by Spekulatius

[whatstheofficerproblem]

17 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Lumentum seems ahead in terms

of product offerings. Being totally integrated is only better if everything in house is state of the art. I don’t think that’s the case with Coherent.

 

I suggest going through the MS TMT call for both LITE & COHR. I think the latter's moat really shows in the current backdrop.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Added to COHR today because price action was plain stupid and sell side desks were banging the table on S&P inclusion. It was indeed added alongside LITE, VRT & SATS.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Dear LPs,

 

Please refer to the document below for our 1Q letter.

Tegridy Value LP 1Q26 Letter.pdf

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Feel free to post any questions here. Will get to them.

[UK]

18 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Dear LPs,

 

Please refer to the document below for our 1Q letter.

Tegridy Value LP 1Q26 Letter.pdf 519.93 kB · 32 downloads

Thanks, nice! From a selfish perspective, I would love to see actual weightings, but I agree it is probably better to not disclose these for the sake of fund and manager:)

[whatstheofficerproblem]

6 hours ago, UK said:

Thanks, nice! From a selfish perspective, I would love to see actual weightings, but I agree it is probably better to not disclose these for the sake of fund and manager:)

 

I usually disclose weightage, looks like I was in a rush to put this out and forgot. This is as of March 31. We're up ~7% since inception as of Apr 2. Ridiculous how much 2 days can change in the portfolio.

 

 

[UK]

12 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I usually disclose weightage, looks like I was in a rush to put this out and forgot. This is as of March 31. We're up ~7% since inception as of Apr 2. Ridiculous how much 2 days can change in the portfolio.

 

 

 no benchmark hugging 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Hugging any benchmark makes no sense when the portfolio is constructed the way it is. Crazy momo and factor swings in the index especially with the macro. There will obviously be time periods where the indices will outperform our portfolio at tegridy, it's simply the price you pay for higher conviction / misunderstood names. Just look at the shit show in indices below since Tegridy's inception through Mar 31.

 

This would make me look like a genius, when I am in fact not. Any short term outperformance or underperformance is just noise. Or at least that's the way I see it.

 

S&P500: (5.60)%

NDX: (7.28)%

IWM: (6.35)%

XBI: (0.24)%

DJI: (5.62)%

Tegridy: 2.66%

Edited April 4 by whatstheofficerproblem

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Ongoing UBS ad check call is shaving 100bps from each of the remaining quarters for total ad spend currently, Mainly coming from brand budgets and CTV. Reads incredibly bullish for MNTN, MGNI & NFLX.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Good day to be a Tegridy Value LP it seems. We're up ~8% since inception so far. Thanks to favorable developments at SNDK, CVRX & RVMD. Just need Judge to get LQDA out of the way now and we're golden.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Trimmed the fund's SNDK position by half today as the stock basically almost doubled from our cost basis. Think the Nasdaq100 flows today are helping, spread between MU & SNDK widening which I think will revert. Punted COHR for a 50% gain. 

 

Semis are very volatile and the factor swings are crazy, these names will come down again for no apparent reason or CXMT IPO will catalyze another money rotation zero sum game at which point can add back to these positions at a cheaper multiple.

 

Rotated the proceeds into INBX which has an imminent catalyst on the horizon and will likely be a multi-bagger from here.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Good to see the spread between COHR and LITE increase, was overdue. This was a consequence of the Goldman note this morning where they said TAM for these guys is going to 30x or something like that. Anyways, not worried that I sold it. Enough factor swings here so will be able to buy-in again, would also be a good time to add if the street keeps revising up.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

On 4/3/2026 at 2:23 PM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I usually disclose weightage, looks like I was in a rush to put this out and forgot. This is as of March 31. We're up ~7% since inception as of Apr 2. Ridiculous how much 2 days can change in the portfolio.

 

 

No ShitLab?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Not for the time being. Will likely add after I take profit on INBX.

[moatrep]

How is your Lqda position being held? Since I saw in your other post you are exposed through LEAPS, don't you want to replicate the same strategy in the fund?. l'm also not sure how to hold it. I see that most people here don't hold it straight. 

Edited April 30 by moatrep

[whatstheofficerproblem]

2 hours ago, moatrep said:

How is your Lqda position being held? Since I saw in your other post you are exposed through LEAPS, don't you want to replicate the same strategy in the fund?. l'm also not sure how to hold it.

 

1) Would be terrible capital allocation from a portfolio management perspective.

2) Sharesight doesn't allow me to add options. This is also why I sell into the print instead of just buying puts to hedge.

 

I hold in straight in the fund(s) and friends and family accounts. Degen behavior limited to my own life savings.

[DegenerateGambler]

You have nearly 60% of your capital in LQDA, how is this one so much better than the rest of your picks?  Does it have much more upside than say AI names like COHR and SNDK?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Can COHR & SNDK go to $1000 & $3000 per share respectively? I'm skeptical but assuming they even go there, the factor swings in AI names would be very bad for my mental health and for the portfolio as a whole. LQDA for now is range bound given the drug is already executing. If left alone I think LQDA would be a $500/sh stock by 2028 which implies a 10 bagger from my cost basis. If suit goes our way then 5 bagger from here when MRK acquires them.

 

On one hand I'm looking at a very 'safe' 5-10 bagger while on the other I'm putting more money 'at risk' with AI names for at best a 2x return from here. LQDA will be a career defining trade for most involved in the name, so I positioned it as such.

[DegenerateGambler]

15 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Can COHR & SNDK go to $1000 & $3000 per share respectively? I'm skeptical but assuming they even go there, the factor swings in AI names would be very bad for my mental health and for the portfolio as a whole. LQDA for now is range bound given the drug is already executing. If left alone I think LQDA would be a $500/sh stock by 2028 which implies a 10 bagger from my cost basis. If suit goes our way then 5 bagger from here when MRK acquires them.

 

On one hand I'm looking at a very 'safe' 5-10 bagger while on the other I'm putting more money 'at risk' with AI names for at best a 2x return from here. LQDA will be a career defining trade for most involved in the name, so I positioned it as such.

That makes sense.  LQDA going to 500 per share seems pretty nuts tho, what do you think of their lawsuit situation?