Tegridy Value LP

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Just now, Luke said:

When are you buying CSU?

 

I will be very upfront, the reason I think GTLB works here is because it's sort of AI infra. All other software names will not work until you get CapEx implosion. GS released a note about positioning, money is being taken out of software to pump it into Semis because no matter what development happens wrt AI it's good for Semis. You're in a race to the bottom owning software today atleast from a multiple PoV. I think there will be opportunity to buy software as a whole for much cheaper.

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I will be very upfront, the reason I think GTLB works here is because it's sort of AI infra. All other software names will not work until you get CapEx implosion. GS released a note about positioning, money is being taken out of software to pump it into Semis because no matter what development happens wrt AI it's good for Semis. You're in a race to the bottom owning software today atleast from a multiple PoV. I think there will be opportunity to buy software as a whole for much cheaper.

 

they no listen

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Just now, gfp said:

they no listen

 

The price action on a lot of this is retarded and contradictory but it's the reality. Look at ORCL, market thinks OpenAI is a 0 & MSFT's investment thus far is 0, thinks GOOGL is the sole winner while WMT trades like it has an AWS competitor lined up. All the while selling software on headlines while buying semis, make it make sense.

[Malmqky]

36 minutes ago, gfp said:

they no listen

I’d rather be early, average down, and underperform over the short term than miss out on long term winners. It has taken a while, but I’ve gotten to the right mental state over the past decade or two to do so.

 

Probably part of the reason Tegridy “Value” LP will have better returns than myself, but something something lead a horse to water

Edited February 3 by Malmqky

[whatstheofficerproblem]

12 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

Probably part of the reason Tegridy “Value” LP will have better returns than myself, but something something lead a horse to water

 

The destination matters if you're investing in personal account. But unfortunately as a fund manager, my LPs will not like it if I don't post +ve years.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Did some math on MGNI, extremely compelling. Doubled down on the stock, now a ~15% position.

[Rainier]

53 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Did some math on MGNI, extremely compelling. Doubled down on the stock, now a ~15% position.

I'm not an expert in this space. What is the case for MGNI vs TTD?

[valueseek]

1 minute ago, Rainier said:

I'm not an expert in this space. What is the case for MGNI vs TTD?

On similar lines this space seems to have less structural durability my 10k feet view than other places in general. Maybe I am wrong. Had looked at these names several times over the past few years PUBM, MGNI, on SSP side and TTD on DSP side. Things seem to change quickly. The stocks esp. PUBM and MGNI have appeared extremely attractive most of the times in last 3-4 years if you looked at them. Any particular catalyst here or event/development that bolsters their business durability for long or its a math/valuation play? Tks.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

@Rainier, they're different businesses. MGNI is SSP while TTD is DSP. Long MGNI & Short TTD has been one of the best pair trades of my life. That said TTD has bigger things to worry about.

 

@valueseek, channel checks on my end suggest that very shortly the SSP space will consolidate into 1-3 players as most of the smaller players are going out of business while most of the market here is controlled by Google. 

 

I think the biggest catalyst is really the clarity we have on the Google suit. Remedies imply MGNI will capture some share from Google, how much exactly will depend on the remedy itself, but even a 1-2% market share catch here implies they will add 15-20% on top of their existing 11% organic growth plug. Plus the share gained there has a higher EBITDA passthrough rate 80-90% because there is not much TAC involved.

 

This will happen in 2026. So in such a scenario, even trough multiples imply this is a 2x from here. The mindless sell off is very dumb.

 

Then the ACR data is insane, they can see everything and massively increase value of CPMs across all publishers they work with. ACR data + best inventory + most demand aggregated is a super powerful position that is only going to get better as they continue to move towards curation and higher value services compared to traditional “dumb pipe” historically.

 

So this works out even if Google remedy is not material, but it will be material and inflection will be aggressive imo. But thing is timing anything in the market is difficult. If you look at the worries about market implied share loss (inter-SSP take rate compression or DSP disintermediation) that is highly unlikely given their data + ad server advantages. CTV market is growing 13% next year and I think rev accel is likely given SPO and recent push on curated data. They consistently give publishers the best CPMs and commoditize DSP. 

 

Huge power shift that I don’t think is being fully appreciated. Two years of growth Accel at 50% inc EBITDA and it’s trading at mid single digits with a competitive position that is only getting better with scale. Like the moat here, if AMZN wants to vertically integrate into SSP sometime in the future they'll likely buy MGNI out, though that's not at all part of my thesis here.

Edited February 4 by whatstheofficerproblem

[whatstheofficerproblem]

For those who need a Primer on SSPs:

 

 

[valueseek]

19 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

@Rainier, they're different businesses. MGNI is SSP while TTD is DSP. Long MGNI & Short TTD has been one of the best pair trades of my life. That said TTD has bigger things to worry about.

 

@valueseek, channel checks on my end suggest that very shortly the SSP space will consolidate into 1-3 players as most of the smaller players are going out of business while most of the market here is controlled by Google. 

 

I think the biggest catalyst is really the clarity we have on the Google suit. Remedies imply MGNI will capture some share from Google, how much exactly will depend on the remedy itself, but even a 1-2% market share catch here implies they will add 15-20% on top of their existing 11% organic growth plug. Plus the share gained there has a higher EBITDA passthrough rate 80-90% because there is not much TAC involved.

 

This will happen in 2026. So in such a scenario, even trough multiples imply this is a 2x from here. The mindless sell off is very dumb.

 

Then the ACR data is insane, they can see everything and massively increase value of CPMs across all publishers they work with. ACR data + best inventory + most demand aggregated is a super powerful position that is only going to get better as they continue to move towards curation and higher value services compared to traditional “dumb pipe” historically.

 

So this works out even if Google remedy is not material, but it will be material and inflection will be aggressive imo. But thing is timing anything in the market is difficult. If you look at the worries about market implied share loss (inter-SSP take rate compression or DSP disintermediation) that is highly unlikely given their data + ad server advantages. CTV market is growing 13% next year and I think rev accel is likely given SPO and recent push on curated data. They consistently give publishers the best CPMs and commoditize DSP. 

 

Huge power shift that I don’t think is being fully appreciated. Two years of growth Accel at 50% inc EBITDA and it’s trading at mid single digits with a competitive position that is only getting better with scale. Like the moat here, if AMZN wants to vertically integrate into SSP sometime in the future they'll likely buy MGNI out, though that's not at all part of my thesis here.

wow - appreciate all the cool insights here. Tks much @whatstheofficerproblem

[Luke]

@whatstheofficerproblem AMD also down and you liked it didnt you? 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Just now, Luke said:

AMD also down and you liked it didnt you? 

 

I have liked AMD for a year, in Tegridy my cost basis higher because AMD was trading higher at fund's inception. Like I said in the letter, I will be happy to add. They have 6GW in instinct GPUs to deliver for OAI. That's $60-180B depending on where ASPs fall. Then you have the CPU shortage.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

COHR now under $200, might be adding tomorrow. Fwiw, these are very shit businesses much like Memory names, but optical is where the next shortage is at and I think Jimmy & his CFO have a good enough rep from LSSC days for me to buy it here.

[gfp]

Lots of changes to the initial AMD, CVRX, GTLB, LQDA, RVMD, SNDK, FRFHF portfolio I am assuming...

 

How about a snapshot of the fund's current holdings?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

38 minutes ago, gfp said:

AMD, CVRX, GTLB, LQDA, RVMD, SNDK, FRFHF

 

Pretty much the same, COHR & MGNI were the only additions.

 

[gfp]

Thanks for the update!  Surprised you chose COHR over LITE but I guess LITE is already off to the races.  

 

CVRX ought to have some volatility around earnings tomorrow evening.

 

That's one volatile portfolio!  It's fully invested zero cash?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

7 minutes ago, gfp said:

That's one volatile portfolio!  It's fully invested zero cash?

 

Sharesight didn't give me an option for cash! So I just chose Fairfax as a cash proxy, else that would've been cash. Yep, CVRX volatile, but I think print should be good.

 

I like COHR better as like you said LITE is off to races and most of their capacity is taken by Sundar. COHR only recently became a pureplay will take time for folks to realize and get a sense of what's happening. I like the CEO & CFO.

 

I find it ironic that the most 'volatile' name that I did a double take on when I added is the best performer from the above screenshot. There is almost a Zombie like drain from everything not AI which is flowing into semis.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Sold GTLB and doubled down on LQDA after today's sell off.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Terrific print on MGNI. Convert goes away 3/1 & $200M in buybacks with plan to go more aggressive with buybacks going forward. CTV is amazing, then you also have the Brinkema catalyst.. this selling off is retarded.

[gfp]

RVMD files to sell a billion bucks of new stock...

[gfp]

What would we do without analysts...  (no offense to officer-analyst)

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I mean, with a $15B sales opp, this is a much bigger company than what it is today. Don't think $1B is going to make a dent.

[sleepydragon]

23 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

I mean, with a $15B sales opp, this is a much bigger company than what it is today. Don't think $1B is going to make a dent.

 

I agree. Someone pointed out to me that they need the money to finish up multiple big trials, but they choose to do ATM instead of a new offering, which is very bullish. With ATM it means 1. it's optional depending on the market price, and 2. they sell at the market price to all investors at the time they choose (versus a discounted price to hedge funds) , which is more shareholder friendly, and 3. this means buyouts is Not off the table.  And $1b is only 4-5% dilution. 

[Spekulatius]

On 2/25/2026 at 4:59 PM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Terrific print on MGNI. Convert goes away 3/1 & $200M in buybacks with plan to go more aggressive with buybacks going forward. CTV is amazing, then you also have the Brinkema catalyst.. this selling off is retarded.

I looked at his report and what do you think is so great about it?. All these independent ad resellers or platforms seem to be struggling.

Edited February 28 by Spekulatius