Fairfax 2026

[Crip1]

23 hours ago, cwericb said:

 

Had the exact conversation with my better half Saturday morning and she asked the exact same question. I also had no real answer other than to say these things tend to happen to Fairfax from time to time for no real reason. Kinda felt like a moron because I could not explain the situation, and yeah, there is the net worth roller coaster. I told her that I have every confidence that share price will get back on track, my only concern is when as I am not getting any younger. With Fairfax at around 50% of my portfolio I have not been adding, but I have no intention of selling either. There have been days that tend to make me reach for the Rolaids though.

 

By the way Crip, I'm the guy that stumbled onto this board 20 years ago and paid close attention to every one of your posts at the time because you always seemed to ask or answer ask the same questions that I had and you were one of the posters that influenced me jump into Fairfax. I thank you for that. There has been a lot of ups and downs with Fairfax over those 20 years but I'm still here.

 

Wow, that's was really kind of you to say, I really appreciate it. Back in those days, it was Cardboard and BSilly, as well as James East and others who I remember being the voices of reason. And, of course, you're welcome. No doubt I've received insanely more knowledge and wisdom than I ever gave, but if I helped, I'm happy to have done so.

Funny that you had a similar conversation, and funnier still that you had it on Saturday morning as I'm pretty sure that's when we had our conversation. 

 

-Crip

[bearprowler6]

1 hour ago, Crip1 said:

 

Wow, that's was really kind of you to say, I really appreciate it. Back in those days, it was Cardboard and BSilly, as well as James East and others who I remember being the voices of reason. And, of course, you're welcome. No doubt I've received insanely more knowledge and wisdom than I ever gave, but if I helped, I'm happy to have done so.

Funny that you had a similar conversation, and funnier still that you had it on Saturday morning as I'm pretty sure that's when we had our conversation. 

 

-Crip

Serious question... how long are you both prepared to wait for Fairfax's share price to "go back to where it was" and/or "rerate and go to where it should be". Are you absolutely sure we have not entered another 7 lean year period? For different reasons this time however I don't think the possibility of this is zero. Would both of your spouses be also willing to wait it out? 

 

Prem always suggests that we think long term. Without a specific timeline or at least a range of times that statement has always struck me as meaningless.

 

Furthermore, Fairfax has been set up to outlast Prem. So decisions made today can really be made with a long term viewpoint in mind. This likely means that Fairfax's timeline does not align with the personal timelines of very many individual shareholders. As cwericb said...we are not getting any younger.

[SafetyinNumbers]

6 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

Are you absolutely sure we have not entered another 7 lean year period? For different reasons this time however I don't think the possibility of this is zero.

How low do you think the multiple can go? What do you think the odds are? 

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

One of Fairfax’s great strengths is they are very opportunistic. Their stock is - once again - wicked cheap. They know it. What to do? Back up the truck with buybacks. Time for another dutch auction? Or do they simply max out the NCIB. It is fun to speculate…

 

This quote from Buffett comes to mind: "Big opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble."

 

I like how the spread to the 30 year keeps tightening. Two years ago they issued at ~190bp spread, last year ~165bp and this year was ~135bp. I think Allied World is the logical place for this money. Extending the option would have been more expensive and buying Allied World minority boosts the borrowing base, 

[value_hunter]

1 hour ago, bearprowler6 said:

Serious question... how long are you both prepared to wait for Fairfax's share price to "go back to where it was" and/or "rerate and go to where it should be". Are you absolutely sure we have not entered another 7 lean year period? For different reasons this time however I don't think the possibility of this is zero. Would both of your spouses be also willing to wait it out? 

 

Prem always suggests that we think long term. Without a specific timeline or at least a range of times that statement has always struck me as meaningless.

 

Furthermore, Fairfax has been set up to outlast Prem. So decisions made today can really be made with a long term viewpoint in mind. This likely means that Fairfax's timeline does not align with the personal timelines of very many individual shareholders. As cwericb said...we are not getting any younger.

Hi bearprower6, I remember you sold most of your fairfax shares back in 2020. Do you still have any position now?

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, bearprowler6 said:

Serious question... how long are you both prepared to wait for Fairfax's share price to "go back to where it was" and/or "rerate and go to where it should be". Are you absolutely sure we have not entered another 7 lean year period? For different reasons this time however I don't think the possibility of this is zero. Would both of your spouses be also willing to wait it out? 

 

Prem always suggests that we think long term. Without a specific timeline or at least a range of times that statement has always struck me as meaningless.

 

Furthermore, Fairfax has been set up to outlast Prem. So decisions made today can really be made with a long term viewpoint in mind. This likely means that Fairfax's timeline does not align with the personal timelines of very many individual shareholders. As cwericb said...we are not getting any younger.

 

Even during the Great Depression after the Crash of 1929...if you continued to average down, or sell stocks to buy even cheaper ones, you came out well ahead over time...even over the ensuing 2-3 years.

 

If you stood pat, the recovery took a lot longer.  If you sold, you crystallized your losses.  If you were leveraged and/or on margin...odds are you were broke.  But averaging down worked as markets slowly recovered.

 

So if you are worried about the next 5 years or so...make sure you have some cash and live at or below your means.  If the markets or FFH stays low for a period of time, average down to cheaper valuations in other stocks or even FFH as the P/E compresses further.  

 

Cheers!

[Txvestor]

3 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

How low do you think the multiple can go? What do you think the odds are? 

 

3 hours ago, bearprowler6 said:

Serious question... how long are you both prepared to wait for Fairfax's share price to "go back to where it was" and/or "rerate and go to where it should be". Are you absolutely sure we have not entered another 7 lean year period? For different reasons this time however I don't think the possibility of this is zero. Would both of your spouses be also willing to wait it out? 

 

Prem always suggests that we think long term. Without a specific timeline or at least a range of times that statement has always struck me as meaningless.

 

Furthermore, Fairfax has been set up to outlast Prem. So decisions made today can really be made with a long term viewpoint in mind. This likely means that Fairfax's timeline does not align with the personal timelines of very many individual shareholders. As cwericb said...we are not getting any younger.

I think that's an important contrast and a question each investor has to ask themselves. Prem isn't getting any younger, we aren't either. And as you can see with Fairfax India 11yrs apparently isn't long term in their eyes. Unless you traded in and out of that security at opportune times. From IPO to now your annual rate of return is a paltry mid single digits, barely beating 10yr treasuries. A lot of holders are looking at the discrepancy between IV and share price and wondering what long term means if 11yrs isn't long enough.

[adventurer]

4 hours ago, bearprowler6 said:

Serious question... how long are you both prepared to wait for Fairfax's share price to "go back to where it was" and/or "rerate and go to where it should be". Are you absolutely sure we have not entered another 7 lean year period? For different reasons this time however I don't think the possibility of this is zero. Would both of your spouses be also willing to wait it out? 

 

Prem always suggests that we think long term. Without a specific timeline or at least a range of times that statement has always struck me as meaningless.

 

Furthermore, Fairfax has been set up to outlast Prem. So decisions made today can really be made with a long term viewpoint in mind. This likely means that Fairfax's timeline does not align with the personal timelines of very many individual shareholders. As cwericb said...we are not getting any younger.

If you consider it to be true that Fairfax did undergo a transformation between 2017-2020 (with all the positives coming with it, as laid out on this board) and if you believe in the mantra that prices follow earnings you will end up with a higher share price. The buybacks, if continued meaningfully as announced a few years back by Prem, accelerate the arithmetical process of increasing EPS.

To my mind the groundworks now are more in place for an increase in share price compared to all periods before (as described in "The Fairfax Way"). This of course does not include unexpected push backs such as CAT-events and so forth. 

Edited 2 hours ago by adventurer