Portfolio 2026

[serkapon]

19 hours ago, ICUMD said:

Curious as to why you 'grew' out of the dividend strategy?    Dividend  yielders are about 2/3 my portfolio, 1/3 is Googl with a bite of Apple.

I realized they were a major tax drag, and while psychologically encouraging they were financially inefficient. I still like dividend payers but as you can see most of them sport a very small dividend yield if any at all

[decipher]

GOOG:  50%

FRFHF:  12%

UBER:     9%
SNOW:   3%

CPNG:    2%
LQDA:     2%

Misc:       5%
VFORX:   8%
Cash:      8%

GOOG in taxable account, might leave most of it as-is. Planning to trim UBER, exit SNOW, and increase LQDA and CPNG.

[Jan]

On 12/31/2025 at 5:52 PM, Luke said:

 

 

Current Portfolio allocation made with Gemini copied directly from IB: 

 

 

EDIT: Aaand Gemini fucked up haha! 9PDA is also PDD and not alibaba lol! 

Nice Portfolio @Luke! How do you sleep well with your strong allocation to china and china-risk? I am asking because I also built quite the allocation to china stocks and not sure how comfortable I feel...

Edited January 16 by Jan

[dpetrescu]

Always interesting to read year end summaries and thoughts! I hate to be a broken record but not much has happened for me since last year. Next year will likely be the same. 

 

80% - SSD

10% - ADSK 2028 LEAPS

10% - BABA and BIDU 2028 OOM LEAPS

 

Some thoughts:

Amazing how a few days (at start of this year) can generate the vast majority of gains. Also, Autodesk seems to have been thrown into the waste pile of AI collateral damage/disruption for SAAS. I’m thinking it might have a lot lower to go, happy to average down. 
 

[Luke]

11 hours ago, Jan said:

Nice Portfolio @Luke! How do you sleep well with your strong allocation to china and china-risk? I am asking because I also built quite the allocation to china stocks and not sure how comfortable I feel...

I sleep fine! I have a lot of conviction on the chinese economy and my chinese holdings i am holding right now

[This2ShallPass]

On 1/15/2026 at 2:25 PM, Jan said:

How do you sleep well with your strong allocation to china and china-risk? I am asking because I also built quite the allocation to china stocks and not sure how comfortable I feel...

I also have TSMC and Prosus / Tencent / Baidu making up 22% of my pf (roughly half TSMC). The tail event that we cannot control is China invading Taiwan (and it becomes more likely after US intervention in Venezuela).

 

I have decided it's not a chance I can take even though the probability is very low, so I have 25% OTM puts expiring in 6 months and plan on keep rolling them (it's cost to stay in the position). I am also thinking about moving my Tencent / Baidu positions to the HK listing. Also, I'm buying call options in Intel. If Taiwan is taken over, Intel will go up at least 2 to 3 times if not more (and more likely TSMC US fabs will be run by Intel as they're the only American company with the expertise needed). 

 

 

[UK]

This is my sons (13+ yo) portfolio. Started just recently, funded 50/50 between him (~1 year his savings) and me: HSBK 20%, PDD 18%, LQDA 17%, NVO 16%, CVRX 9%, JACK 9%, NU 9%. I obviously has shared my portfolio and watchlist and was happy to answer any questions I can. The only his original position is NU. But as you can see he is very prone for these "at least 2-3x" ideas (most from my basket allocation) and copied only NVO from my main list. Perhaps will be good for learning:). For his age he knows quite a lot about FFH, how much I own etc, yet avoided this in his portfolio, apparently next 12 month upside is not exciting enough. Perhaps also can be good for learning:)

 

Edited January 21 by UK

[moatrep]

Edit: last month I have being reading a lot and changed many things, but already made two posts so I will edit my portfolio here in case someone reads the thread. 

 

Fairfax 66% (my opportunity cost base, I am building a portofolio and in a few years I expect to make it a 33% after adding more cash. My numbers would be around 7 to 10% return, and 15% ROE long term, diversified, difficult to outperform)

 

Markel 2% (diworsification from fairfax, but who knows)

 

Berkshire 1%.. will add under 1T

 

Elf.to 1% (Easy 7% return, and quite safe, they are doing buybacks and special dividends, bought a big position when the return was around 10%, but passed it to fairfax and left some)

 

Exor 8% (holding company with NAV 2.5x the market cap, ferrari may be overvalued, some parts of the portfolio are speculative, but worst case escenario it's like a diversified fund at 30% discount to intrinsic value, best case it can go anywhere)

 

Dom pizza UK 5% (10% return, since my portfolio is small I can get some dividends from the UK without taxes, also they were buying back shares)

 

Verisk 3% (the best moat that can transition perfectly into the AI era, a good business at fair value)

 

CVRX 5% (the ip protection is speculative, but the economics of the business make a lot of sense)

 

Oxy 2% (I believe Iran may be invaded this year, and they can reinvest in the Permian on the long run, it's a solid hold)

 

Fisv 3% (fair value, moaty, consolidated industry, good management)

BLDR 2% (cyclical low, good business, insider purchases)

Fairfax india 1% (good operators and India)

 

Dubious side of the portfolio:

 

DCBO 1% (May be a banger, but competition it's furious, probably the customers are sticky and it works) Also playing the odd lots on here

 

I exited:

Greggs (Dom pizza has a better return at this price)

Kraft heinz (i got it inside fairfax, with leverage)

Pinduoduo (after the attack on Venezuela I guess geopolitics will get worse)

Wyse (I love the company but I saw how hard it's the industry of payment, and will follow to enter at a better price)

 

Others I exited because they would be diworsification from Fairfax.

 

 

Edited February 24 by moatrep

[pine]

1 hour ago, moatrep said:

 

Wyse plc 20%

Elf.to 10%

Fairfax 10% (may go to 20%)

Paypal 10% 

 

Greggs 5%

Stratcona 5%

Kraft heinz 5%

Nvr 5%

 

Pinduoduo 3% 

Crocs 3% 

United health 3%

 

Oxy 2%

Bic SA 2%

 

And 1% in 

Exor, f&g annuaties, fairfax india

(For tracking and force me to learn them), HPQ and STZ.

 

10% cash

 

NVR from your port caught my eye and I recently read a good book, Hidden Investment Treasures by Daniel Gladis, which has a chapter on NVR and which you might find interesting. 

[This2ShallPass]

17 hours ago, UK said:

This is my sons (13+ yo) portfolio. Started just recently, funded 50/50 between him (~1 year his savings) and me: HSBK 20%, PDD 18%, LQDA 17%, NVO 16%, CVRX 9%, JACK 9%, NU 9%. I obviously has shared my portfolio and watchlist and was happy to answer any questions I can. The only his original position is NU. But as you can see he is very prone for these "at least 2-3x" ideas (most from my basket allocation) and copied only NVO from my main list. Perhaps will be good for learning:). For his age he knows quite a lot about FFH, how much I own etc, yet avoided this in his portfolio, apparently next 12 month upside is not exciting enough. Perhaps also can be good for learning:)

 

Awesome. This will be such an amazing foundation for him. At that age, a big loss might sap the interest so maybe nudge him away from binary bets like LQDA (though a big win could do the opposite).

 

How did you get your son interested? I'm trying to get my 15 yo into it but no luck so far..

[UK]

2 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

Awesome. This will be such an amazing foundation for him. At that age, a big loss might sap the interest so maybe nudge him away from binary bets like LQDA (though a big win could do the opposite).

 

How did you get your son interested? I'm trying to get my 15 yo into it but no luck so far..

Thanks! Well I am not sure he is interested enough (at least in my view), but I thought I will at least try:). I think having some skin in the game could help. When I was 18yo, my father, who knew nothing about stocks, bough some shares (in only one company:)) on my name (but they were not considered mine), almost exactly at the market top at the time. It was interesting to see these shares to start going down almost the next day after buying, all the way to a ~80 per cent loss at first, then the company merging into a bigger one, and finally recovering and going up 2-3x on the initial investment, all happening in ~6 years and producing ~15 CAGR with dividends in the end. This was quite interesting experience to see all this. I mean, from euphoria, to total despair and apathy, and than again to quite a satisfactory result. And it was not, at least comparatively, some small money for the family at the time. So later, when i started to have some own savings, I immediately remembered all this (and quite successfully started doing mistakes with my own money:)). So for a while, I thought I would try to encourage him to have some experience like this asap in his life, while money are still small. If nothing from all this will come out, no problem with me. It is a shame, that as the underage he can not have securities account on his own name though. So I have opened another account in my name on IBKR and let him do his transactions by himself. We will see if all this be useful, or he will put away and forgot everything after some time (still portfolio could run even this way). Talking (not without some bragging:)) helps. But also timing i think...because at this in the market cycle I see investing very popular and I am seeing lots of unsophisticated people eager to be involved.

 

Edited January 22 by UK

[This2ShallPass]

2 hours ago, UK said:

Thanks! Well I am not sure he is interested enough (at least in my view), but I thought I will at least try:). I think having some skin in the game could help. When I was 18yo, my father, who knew nothing about stocks, bough some shares (in only one company:)) on my name (but they were not considered mine), almost exactly at the market top at the time. It was interesting to see these shares to start going down almost the next day after buying, all the way to a ~80 per cent loss at first, then the company merging into a bigger one, and finally recovering and going up 2-3x on the initial investment, all happening in ~6 years and producing ~15 CAGR with dividends in the end. This was quite interesting experience to see all this. I mean, from euphoria, to total despair and apathy, and than again to quite a satisfactory result. And it was not, at least comparatively, some small money for the family at the time. So later, when i started to have some own savings, I immediately remembered all this (and quite successfully started doing mistakes with my own money:)). So for a while, I thought I would try to encourage him to have some experience like this asap in his life, while money are still small. If nothing from all this will come out, no problem with me. It is a shame, that as the underage he can not have securities account on his own name though. So I have opened another account in my name on IBKR and let him do his transactions by himself. We will see if all this be useful, or he will put away and forgot everything after some time (still portfolio could run even this way). Talking (not without some bragging:)) helps. But also timing i think...because at this in the market cycle I see investing very popular and I am seeing lots of unsophisticated people eager to be involved.

 

Thanks, your post made me talk to my son again about it..

[moatrep]

On 1/21/2026 at 6:44 PM, pine said:

NVR from your port caught my eye and I recently read a good book, Hidden Investment Treasures by Daniel Gladis, which has a chapter on NVR and which you might find interesting. 

A lot of ideas on this come from Norbert Lou's portfolio, right now I guess it's better than cash and I don't have that many ideas. But most people will find something better 

[coffeecaninvestor]

On 12/20/2025 at 7:40 AM, coffeecaninvestor said:

I turned my portfolio over this year after going too concentrated too quickly into positions. (I had big positions for me in JNJ and got frustrated before the run up and sold, and went to aggressive RTO and should have averaged in more slowly so I didn’t get anxious when it fell and could buy more). The plan is to hold 20-25 positions equal weight at cost so I can sleep better. I only have 3 full positions the rest are around 1/2 positions and I am dollar cost averaging into those weekly. 

 

ACN

ADBE

AJG

AMRZ - full position 

BAH

BRO

CHD

CNSWF - full position 

CP

CPRT

ELV

FND

KRE

ODFL

PYPL

PAYX

RTO - full position 

STZ

SYY

UNF

UNH

 

 

Here are the companies that made the cut, and increased in position size. 

 

Berkshire 

Fairfax

NNI

AJG

STZ

FND

BAH

 

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

 

Here are the companies that made the cut, and increased in position size. 

 

Berkshire 

Fairfax

NNI

AJG

STZ

FND

BAH

 

 

 

I don't have an opinion on some of the names on the list, but I would stay away from STZ - no growth, and FND has very high short interest - generally a bearish indicator.   

[coffeecaninvestor]

3 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I don't have an opinion on some of the names on the list, but I would stay away from STZ - no growth, and FND has very high short interest - generally a bearish indicator.   

The core brands have volume growth. It’s really been wine and spirits that has really been the  issue. If they focus on he premium beer I think results can improve and can resume taking market share. The overall results don’t look great lately due to the write offs and divestures but I think a lot of that is done with. The latest quarter seemed like it’s heading in the right direction. They are also facing some headwinds with higher aluminum prices and tariffs. I think those are manageable. STZ has unique brand names and does really well in the premium niche. I know people that drink modello and won’t drink anything else. 

I don’t really care about short interest.. they might be short based on different investment horizons, or for some other reason. If people weren’t bearish then there wouldn’t be an opportunity to buy a capital light growth company at a discount. There is a clear housing shortage and so I think FND will have a tailwind whenever the housing market unfreezes. All the while I have the potential to have multiple “engines” of growth from new store openings, margin expansion from operating leverage, and earnings growth from new housing demand, and multiple expansion. FND has a low cost business model in the flooring niche and I think can continue to take share. I think the business is fine and durable it’s just a shitty time for housing, but I don’t think you want to buy a cyclical industry when things are firing on all cylinders you buy when it’s slow. 

 

But that’s just my view on it we will see how it plays out. I think these businesses are easier to handicap than  software or payment companies , and cheaper than some of the growth stocks that I think a more fairly priced. 

Edited January 25 by coffeecaninvestor
Typo

[Spekulatius]

STZ Beer did not have volume growth recently either. In Q3 2025, depletions (consumptions STZ  was a negative 2.7%. STZ is not priced for negative unit growth.

[dipod]

NVO

CPNG

Cash

That's it

[coffeecaninvestor]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

STZ Beer did not have volume growth recently either. In Q3 2025, depletions (consumptions STZ  was a negative 2.7%. STZ is not priced for negative unit growth.

Yes in the short term they have been challenged but if they earn $11 EPS that’s 15x earnings.. theres not a lot of growth embedded in that multiple.
 

It looks like inventories have stabilized relative to their revenue growth and they have been able to raise prices without much issue. 
 

 

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

Yes in the short term they have been challenged but if they earn $11 EPS that’s 15x earnings.. theres not a lot of growth embedded in that multiple.
 

It looks like inventories have stabilized relative to their revenue growth and they have been able to raise prices without much issue. 
 

 

If you get zero unit growth (better than the current -3%) then with 3% annual pricing, you would have an equal 3% topline growth. Doesn’t look that cheap to me at 15x earnings and also  ~3x debt /EBITDA to consider. I think STZ looks about fair value here assuming these assumptions.

 

Now if they get decent unit growth again in beer, then the stock is cheap.

Edited January 25 by Spekulatius

[coffeecaninvestor]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If you get zero unit growth (better than the current -3%) then with 3% annual pricing, you would have an equal 3% topline growth. Doesn’t look that cheap to me at 15x earnings and also  ~3x debt /EBITDA to consider. I think STZ looks about fair value here assuming these assumptions.

 

Now if they get decent unit growth again in beer, then the stock is cheap.

Yes but in the long term are they saturated and in decline or do they still have room to grow. I guess I am betting the latter, and I don’t think you even need double digit growth just grow earnings 7%/year via volume, price, and buybacks over the next 5 years. 

[BenT]

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, BenT said:

 

That's a ballsy exposure to Fairfax India Ben!  Hope you hit it out of the park!  Cheers!

[BenT]

24 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

That's a ballsy exposure to Fairfax India Ben!  Hope you hit it out of the park!  Cheers!

Yes and thank you!

[moatrep]

Do you have any estimation in your mind of the value in Fairfax India that you would like to share? I am really curious and personally have a big position but in the canadian fairfax. Thanks!

Edited February 24 by moatrep