Right tail investments

[tnathan]

Thought it might be interesting to start a thread compiling everyone's favorite right tail investments (think multibagger potential, not well understood by market, but risky). I'm interested in having a section of my portfolio dedicated to these, hopefully specific ones that don't have a ton of correlation to the other bets or to the market. Here's a few I can think of that I'm currently involved in:

 

ASTS

BE

Ethereum

 

[schin]

Powerball ticket

[Rainier]

 

 

CRSP

 

PL (even though I sold yesterday; +48% in a day is hard to resist)
 

ASTS

 

OPXS, AMPX

 

JOE - if the next 50 years of economic, cultural, and interstate migration trends are anything like the last 50 years

 

RGTI, QBTS, IONQ - if this stuff becomes practical and economical, it has the potential to upend a lot of industries. I wish I was more knowledgeable about the likelihood of it ever happening.

 

 

Much less risky but pretty big opportunity:

 

VRT

 

VEEV

 

RDDT

 

CASH, CCB, STT, BK

 
CPNG

 

Fairfax India

 

[Milu]

I don't have an investment in it but I could imagine a world where Circle (CRCL) becomes a $200B market cap company. Haven't done enough research on the firm yet though.

[Saluki]

3 hours ago, Rainier said:

 

 

 

 

JOE - if the next 50 years of economic, cultural, and interstate migration trends are anything like the last 50 years

 

Much less risky but pretty big opportunity:

CPNG

 

Fairfax India

 

 

I have these and I agree. Fairfax India is tough because of the weird management fees with Prem. I trust him a lot more than I do Ackman, and it's a lot fairer for FFI shareholders than HHH's scheme, but the market has to agree with you. 

 

I would add KRKNF and BYDDF to the list. I have about a 5% position in the first one and a small tracking position on the second. Kraken could be a multibagger, but most of that thesis is speculation on Anduril continuing to use them for supplying batteries for Anduril's new sea drone Pentagon contract. BYD is going to have a tough year while the weak hands in China get shaken out in the EV price war, but if they decide it's time to come to the US, then even with the 100% tarriff on EV's, it will still be less than Tesla, have a longer range, quicker charging, and won't have the "swastikar" taint from Elon. 

[ICUMD]

For me, one stop shop with AlphaBet.

[Marco Van Basten]

It would be helpful if people would give a quick pitch for the ideas mentioned.  Thank you.

[Rainier]

3 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

It would be helpful if people would give a quick pitch for the ideas mentioned.  Thank you.

 

Good point. See below for my comments. Hopefully others will add or poke holes. 
 

CRSP - This is a bet on gene editing technology. Based on what I know of the technology, the only known viable method to treat a lot of these genetic disorder symptoms is through CRISPR. They recently had a success and it seems like there is a pretty large pipeline, albeit probably a low batting average will materialize. Somewhat unique to early or mature biotech, they also have a mountain of cash and no debt. I view this as 5 - 10 year hold and it’s definitely got some risk, so position size is smallish.

 

PL (even though I sold yesterday; +48% in a day is hard to resist) - This is (I think still) the largest satellite owner operator in the world. They have best in class image resolution and latency and are deploying a new satellite (Pelican) that is set to materially improve both of those metrics. They have a subscription model, with the most important customer categories being defense, agriculture, and insurance. Good and improving relationships with US DoD, NASA, and EU governments. I don’t think this level of geospatial data will become less valuable over time and they’re currently in position for high probability of being the long-term market leader. 
 

ASTS - basically the same idea as PL (i.e. a moat built around the largest/most robust satellite fleet), but providing communication instead of imaging.  Less conviction on this one, just because the runway for PL seems very tangible, with customers who value and will likely continue to pay for higher resolution/speed.

 

OPXS, AMPX - High barrier to entry military tech. OPXS makes optical scopes, sights, housings, etc. for things like tanks and extreme caliber ground artillery. Growth has been very strong and utilization of their technology seems to be accelerating. AMPX has one of the best looking battery technologies for drones/UAVs. The big thing with them is that they’re achieving significant endurance gains without weight gain. UAV and VTOL tech seems like it is going to have a long lifespan - I am not going to say its peak warfare, but it’s hard to imagine a more effective military tech in the near future. I wish I could invest in Anduril.  Like Saluki said, I would also put Kraken and TAYD in this category too.

 

JOE - if the next 50 years of economic, cultural, and interstate migration trends are anything like the last 50 years - This one has been debated to death in the JOE thread. There are several experts (both for and against) who post there regularly, so I’m not going to add any value. I’ll just say that, even though I would never want to live there (heat/humidity), it seems very obvious that the area is going to do very well for the foreseeable future. The management team seems relatively competent, so (on the downside) I just don’t see how it crashes and burns. But my view is much more on the side of this thing being one of the very best real estate setups over the next 20+ years. 

 

RGTI, QBTS, IONQ - if this stuff becomes practical and economical, it has the potential to upend a lot of industries. I wish I was more knowledgeable about the likelihood of it ever happening. I can’t elaborate much more on this. These are three big players in the quantum computing industry. I think it is currently the most speculative of all speculative tech. But if the computers can be profitably built at scale, profitably leased, and achieve some type of networking - then it could completely disrupt most industries that rely on any type of encryption or decryption. This is the one area, even more so than AGI, that I could see being completely nationalized if the tech does what the proponents think it can. Or it could be unachievable. 

 

 

 

Much less risky but pretty big opportunity:

 

VRT - this is just a bet on datacenter expansion, AI proliferation, more compute, etc. Without being as speculative as a lot of the other AI-related companies. They’re kind of acting as the infrastructure partner for the networking/switching, thermal management, power management infrastructure for data centers. 

 

VEEV - This is a solid company and not really speculative. They provide a suite of core software for biotech companies. Kind of like defense tech, biotech seems ripe for rapid advancements in the next decade (AI, gene editing, mRNA, etc). VEEV seems like a good way to ride that trend without betting on specific companies/drugs.

 

RDDT - I view Reddit as having the most valuable data for AI training in the world along with an under-tapped advertising opportunity. 

 

CASH, CCB, STT, BK - Niche banks that provide valuable services over and above typical consumer/commercial banking products. CASH and CCB have subscription type services that are marketed to other banks. STT and BK are fee generation machines with custody and clearing services. 

 

 
CPNG - Seems like an easy bet on the South Korean economy, which I think will have a very strong next 20 years. I feel the same way about Japan and Singapore at this point, and I’m trying to find similar high return coffee can bets on their economies.

 

Fairfax India - I am highly positive about India’s long-term macro outlook. But I don’t have any expertise with looking at Indian companies and don’t have the time to dedicate to learning the market. Fairfax seems like the most logical

way to invest, given my limitations.

 

8 hours ago, Rainier said:

 

Edited September 9, 2025 by Rainier

[SharperDingaan]

Orsted - Free falling share price as the bail-out and uncertainty collapses investor confidence (too far on the right hand distribution). Any kind of significant positive change in their business environment (Trump has a heart attack ), and it takes off. 

 

SD

Edited September 9, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[brobro777]

Philip Morris International - enduring demand for nicotine from humanity confirmed throughout centuries across cultures and continents; strong barriers to entry established through decades of regulation and litigation; strong loyalty to brand exhibited by the customers and very good margins that endured for decades; PM being the largest cig manufacturer has cost advantage versus other tobacco; possible risk of governments banning the products low because they need the tax revenue; new nicotine products don't make you stink like an ashtray and let you consume them indoors currently and probably eventually (Heat Not Burn tobacco and vapes will be allowed indoors at some point, I predict)

 

15% compounded annual return (with dividends reinvested) for the next 15 years, if not 50

 

Yes I'm talking my book, haha

 

 

[nsx5200]

DLTH - Duluth Trading w/ their famous underwear.  Has a loyal following.  Essentially single owner company.  Another fallen angel due to poor leadership transition for several years.  They've rehired the previous CEO recently.

 

For disclosure, a small position for me RN.  I'm already beyond my comfort sizing in the retail space, so it's possible that it remains small.  If anybody would like to discuss, there's already a pretty stale topic here.

[gfp]

On 9/9/2025 at 5:47 AM, Milu said:

I don't have an investment in it but I could imagine a world where Circle (CRCL) becomes a $200B market cap company. Haven't done enough research on the firm yet though.

 

Aren't they directly tied to the Fed Funds rate?

[Marco Van Basten]

4 hours ago, brobro777 said:

Philip Morris International - enduring demand for nicotine from humanity confirmed throughout centuries across cultures and continents; strong barriers to entry established through decades of regulation and litigation; strong loyalty to brand exhibited by the customers and very good margins that endured for decades; PM being the largest cig manufacturer has cost advantage versus other tobacco; possible risk of governments banning the products low because they need the tax revenue; new nicotine products don't make you stink like an ashtray and let you consume them indoors currently and probably eventually (Heat Not Burn tobacco and vapes will be allowed indoors at some point, I predict)

 

15% compounded annual return (with dividends reinvested) for the next 15 years, if not 50

 

Yes I'm talking my book, haha

 

 

I would be interested in seeing the math behind 15% IRR for the next 50 years.  I cannot there, and for the record, I have difficulty seeing it for the next 15 either.  Could you share the math?  Thank you.

[brobro777]

7 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I would be interested in seeing the math behind 15% IRR for the next 50 years.  I cannot there, and for the record, I have difficulty seeing it for the next 15 either.  Could you share the math?  Thank you.

 

I'm not smart enough to do all kinds of mathematical calculations but my 15% guess largely stems from the historical returns of tobacco companies and my bet that PM's future returns will roughly match that. For example, Altria Group (MO) annual returns over 98 years was 16.3% - https://www.bankrate.com/investing/top-stocks-of-the-past-100-years/. My prediction is that the demand for tobacco/nicotine products, pricing power, operating costs and etc. will remain about the same as we transition from cigs to reduced smoke or smokeless products but taxes will be materially higher than in the past because of higher govt deficits than before - so not 16.3%, but less like 15%

 

Don't ask me for more math! 

 

[kh812000]

ORCL, FMCC, ZG, AEHR