US franchises at risk ?

[cubsfan]

Things are getting far better in the US. There is tremendous optimism. But Europe looks like a no-growth basket case. If you can get new leadership, that could change everything.

 

Good luck.

[kab60]

What is getting far better?

 

I don't see how any of what's happening is good for markets (if that is what we are debating). Less immigration, austerity (if DOGE actually implements real cuts) and a trade war with most of world? I don't see how that's bullish US stocks.

 

As for Europe, I agree it's a basket case. I hate the EU. Doesn't mean US growth is all that impressive if you consider 7% deficits or whatever it is at the moment.

 

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

Seriously tackling the deficit is huge. It's never been done with any serious commitment.

US politicians always talk about tackling waste - now it is not only being exposed every day, but plans are being made to eliminate it. Entire agencies are being closed or hugely downsized.

The deficit is an enormous challenge to this new administration.

 

But when you have citizens that have been screwed by FEMA (North Carolina, Florida, etc) and all their money went to illegal immigrants - you are showing the country you care about the citizens.

 

The southern border is sealed shut, which, along with the economy, was the biggest national issue.

Deportations of criminals are happening. 

 

Annoucements like this are happening - good jobs coming back to the country:

 

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/apple-will-spend-more-than-500-billion-usd-in-the-us-over-the-next-four-years/

 

The mood in the US is very positive and that bodes well for US business and for the economy and US taxpayers.

 

I have no idea or prediction about the US stock market, given it's somewhat elevated.

 

I'm much more concerned about job creation and eliminating government waste - if it all happens, then the stock market will figure it out eventually.

 

[Castanza]

Unless you're bringing high tech manufacturing to the US it's silly to try. But our education system is not up the to task because we are stuck in the past. This is where EU will eat our lunch over the next decade. Didn't the CHIPS act require a ton of H-1B workers to staff the key roles? Trad manufacturing jobs (excluding farming) shrunk under Biden even with all that money from 8.3%-8.1%...It's simply for a different era imo. Even China is losing manufacturing jobs. They have lost more over the last 10 years than exists in the US as a whole. 

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Unless you're bringing high tech manufacturing to the US it's silly to try. But our education system is not up the to task because we are stuck in the past. This is where EU will eat our lunch over the next decade. Didn't the CHIPS act require a ton of H-1B workers to staff the key roles? Trad manufacturing jobs (excluding farming) shrunk under Biden even with all that money from 8.3%-8.1%...It's simply for a different era imo. Even China is losing manufacturing jobs. They have lost more over the last 10 years than exists in the US as a whole. 

 

I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to say?

What is it silly to try?

 

Are you saying that Apple is making a mistake with it's large planned investment in the USA?

 

 

[Castanza]

35 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to say?

What is it silly to try?

 

Are you saying that Apple is making a mistake with it's large planned investment in the USA?

 

 

No that’s great but even per their own words: 

 

Most of the new hires will be focused on research and development, or R&D, silicon engineering, software development, and AI and machine learning,

 

You need a highly educated workforce to fill these roles and that starts with education. The US lags here compared to many countries. 
 

Instead our politicians try to keep the steel industry here for “National Security” which is bullshit. The “common man” is not a steel worker or leather factory worker. Those days are gone and those jobs are leaving and frankly should leave. It doesn’t make sense to keep them here with the wages they would demand here. Traditional manufacturing jobs make up less than 10% of the workforce. Yet it remains a huge focus of politicians and policy. It’s silly and leading to American inadequacy on a global scale. 

[cubsfan]

Just now, cubsfan said:

thanks - got it.  We have a crisis of education - agree with that.

 

[kab60]

I think most countries could use a DOGE, but so far the cuts are almost meaningless. Bond market DGAF, but let's see what they come up with.

 

As for manufacturing, isn't US defence considered high tech? Trump is forcing Ukraine to hand over minerals to pay for support while threatening with cutting off Starlink. Said he might use force to take Greenland. I don't know what is real and what is not, but I am sure every European country will reconsider whether buying military equipment - and I would think energy - from the US going forward is a great idea. I can't think of many if any US manufacturing successes on a global scale - save for Tesla. And sales have dropped off a cliff YTD in Europe (some due to changeover and new model Y probably, but also 80% of Germans now disapprove of Musk...). Isn't Tesla the biggest manufacturing success - which looks increasingly fragile internationally?

 

I just don't see how much of this benefits the US long term. You are making allies question everything - countries that never questioned going into (dumb) wars in the Middel-East with you not that long ago.

[DooDiligence]

6 hours ago, kab60 said:

I think most countries could use a DOGE, but so far the cuts are almost meaningless. Bond market DGAF, but let's see what they come up with.

 

As for manufacturing, isn't US defence considered high tech? Trump is forcing Ukraine to hand over minerals to pay for support while threatening with cutting off Starlink. Said he might use force to take Greenland. I don't know what is real and what is not, but I am sure every European country will reconsider whether buying military equipment - and I would think energy - from the US going forward is a great idea. I can't think of many if any US manufacturing successes on a global scale - save for Tesla. And sales have dropped off a cliff YTD in Europe (some due to changeover and new model Y probably, but also 80% of Germans now disapprove of Musk...). Isn't Tesla the biggest manufacturing success - which looks increasingly fragile internationally?

 

I just don't see how much of this benefits the US long term. You are making allies question everything - countries that never questioned going into (dumb) wars in the Middel-East with you not that long ago.

 

Well said (and gracefully).

Edited February 25 by DooDiligence

[SharperDingaan]

US optimism will be quite different a month from now when Detroit and most US car manufacturing goes silent. Mass layoffs as soon as tarifs are imposed on Monday.

 

Donny tried this before and Dow futures dropped 600 points+. Not mentioned in the propaganda is that tariffs were immediatly halted before the market opened.

 

The reality is that most people are not high tech or professionals, and the shitty jobs pay the bills. Get rid of them in quantity, and you risk a good chunk of your population turning on you ... and stoking the flames is fair game. The US routinely does this everywhere else ... and payback is a bitch.

 

Orange boy exists to be used, the view outside of the US is very different, and 'sticking it to Americans' is now widespread. The only certainty is Orange Boy's rising paranoia, and its exploitation thereof.

 

SD

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

On 2/22/2025 at 7:18 PM, John Hjorth said:

Somehow, my ''main fuse' blew' reading your above post, @Ulti 

 

On 2/22/2025 at 7:27 PM, Ulti said:

Curious as to why?

 

I'm sorry for a late reply here, @Ulti,

 

Somehow, your question to me, skipped my attention since you posted it, untill now.

 

My answer to your 'why' : Because the ripple effects of the DOGE initatives, also outside the US, reads so brutal, i.e. hitting hard on people who have not won in the ovarial lottery.

 

Certainly food for thought.

[cwericb]

Some Americans are beginning to become concerned about the U.S. and Russia becoming allies.

But what is really happening is that Trump and Putin are becoming allies.

Now get concerned.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, cwericb said:

Some Americans are beginning to become concerned about the U.S. and Russia becoming allies.

But what is really happening is that Trump and Putin are becoming allies.

Now get concerned.

 

Of course this is a very serious concern and everyone should worry. 

 

Reagan had the philosophy - Trust but verify.

 

So yeah, you can't believe a word Putin says - absolutely. So you DON'T trust him.

 

 

[cwericb]

4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

So yeah, you can't believe a word Putin says - absolutely. So you DON'T trust him.

 

 

Umm, and you believe what Mr. Trump says?

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

Umm, and you believe what Mr. Trump says?

 

I certainly understands how he negotiates.

 

Most importantly, I understand why he was voted in.

[cwericb]

4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I certainly understands how he negotiates.

 

Most importantly, I understand why he was voted in.

 

I think the problem here is, for whom is he negotiating? Himself or the USA?

I firmly believe it is NOT the latter and time will tell.

Edited February 25 by cwericb

[cwericb]

16 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

 

Haha. Corrected that. 

 

I think you and a lot of other people are going to be very disappointed. 

Sociopaths are not known for their altruistic ways.

[cubsfan]

When a country goes off the rails as much as the USA has the last few years, strong medicine and leadership is required.  Spending our way into oblivion has been the mantra of the last 20 years.

 

With the new President - it stops here.

 

Too make the strong medicine worse, a nationalist that loves the country and puts the country first is hard for allies & enemies to take. 

 

I'll wish for Canada something far better than Justin. Good luck with that.

[cwericb]

Justin is essentially done and dusted, but I believe you are in for a rocky future with Mr. Trump.

Remember that old saying... "be careful what you wish for"

[kab60]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

When a country goes off the rails as much as the USA has the last few years, strong medicine and leadership is required.  Spending our way into oblivion has been the mantra of the last 20 years.

 

With the new President - it stops here.

 

Too make the strong medicine worse, a nationalist that loves the country and puts the country first is hard for allies & enemies to take. 

 

I'll wish for Canada something far better than Justin. Good luck with that.

I mean, didn't this guy run the Country before? Surely he has some kind of responsibility too?

 

Anyway, I just don't see how what he's doing will benefit the US mid/long-term. If anything, a lot of this stuff is what I'd do if I was a foreign (malicious) actor. If I could even come up with it all. How does it make sense to threaten allies and cozy up to Putin? Blackmailing Ukraine? Threatening Canada and Greenland? I mean wtf. If he takes Greenland by force, will he also defend it against himself due to NATO's article 5?

 

As for how well it's all going, European stocks have outperformed US markets YTD. No wonder. 

 

This from today:

 

"US consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, adding to evidence that uncertainty over the Trump administration’s policies is weighing on households. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7 points in February to 98.3, marking the third straight decline, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Stocks and bond yields fell after the report."

 

Doesn't sound like optimism is running particularly hot. I don't think anyone understands what the plan is. He seems to be just lobbing grenades around, while people take cover and hope it all stops before somebody gets hurt for real.

Edited February 25 by kab60

[cwericb]

25 minutes ago, kab60 said:

I mean, didn't this guy run the Country before? Surely he has some kind of responsibility too?

 

Anyway, I just don't see how what he's doing will benefit the US mid/long-term. If anything, a lot of this stuff is what I'd do if I was a foreign (malicious) actor. If I could even come up with it all. How does it make sense to threaten allies and cozy up to Putin? Blackmailing Ukraine? Threatening Canada and Greenland? I mean wtf. If he takes Greenland by force, will he also defend it against himself due to NATO's article 5?

 

As for how well it's all going, European stocks have outperformed US markets YTD. No wonder. 

 

This from today:

 

"US consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, adding to evidence that uncertainty over the Trump administration’s policies is weighing on households. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7 points in February to 98.3, marking the third straight decline, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Stocks and bond yields fell after the report."

 

Doesn't sound like optimism is running particularly hot. I don't think anyone understands what the plan is. He seems to be just lobbing grenades around, while people take cover and hope it all stops before somebody gets hurt for real.

 

Oh yeah, they will tell you it is all this magical and wonderful negotiating tactic. But they can't tell you who or what he is negotiating. And then they will try to tell you that this  is the best part of it all, as no one knows. Aah, perhaps the emperor has no clothes.

 

How about this........................................................

 

Pictured below is the Mexican President, American President and Canadian Prime Minister signing the USMCA trade deal in 2019. 

 

 

Donald Trump said this week that tariffs on Canada will have to be instituted because this trade deal was “signed by a previous administration and leader who was a fool”.

 

At least he got something right.

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

42 minutes ago, kab60 said:

I mean, didn't this guy run the Country before? Surely he has some kind of responsibility too?

 

Anyway, I just don't see how what he's doing will benefit the US mid/long-term. If anything, a lot of this stuff is what I'd do if I was a foreign (malicious) actor. If I could even come up with it all. How does it make sense to threaten allies and cozy up to Putin? Blackmailing Ukraine? Threatening Canada and Greenland? I mean wtf. If he takes Greenland by force, will he also defend it against himself due to NATO's article 5?

 

As for how well it's all going, European stocks have outperformed US markets YTD. No wonder. 

 

This from today:

 

"US consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, adding to evidence that uncertainty over the Trump administration’s policies is weighing on households. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7 points in February to 98.3, marking the third straight decline, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Stocks and bond yields fell after the report."

 

Doesn't sound like optimism is running particularly hot. I don't think anyone understands what the plan is. He seems to be just lobbing grenades around, while people take cover and hope it all stops before somebody gets hurt for real.

 

This is beyond silly:

 

- threatening Canada?

- threatening Greenland?

- Blackmailing Ukraine?

 

You have quite the imagination.

[kab60]

I do? Or perhaps I take the leader of the US at his word? I mean, I hope he isn't serious, and I don't think it'll happen, but you're basically saying I'm silly for thinking he'll actually do what he says. How does that work by the way - can we just ignore whatever we don't like and focus on the stuff we do?

 

"In recent days, Trump has repeatedly pushed the idea that he will take over Greenland from Denmark, reclaim the Panama Canal after the United States returned it to the Panamanian government decades ago and absorb Canada into the United States. Trump said he is keeping the option of using the military to gain control of Greenland and the Panama Canal on the table while saying he will exert “economic force” to pressure Canada to join the United States." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-take-canada-greenland-panama-canal-rcna186591

 

What is that if not threats? 

 

According to media reports (now I'm sure you'll be saying we can trust those!), Ukraine was threatened to lose access to Starlink if they didn't sign a mineral agreement with the US. He's fucking over the victim while appeasing the aggressor. Blackmail seems like a nice way to put it.

[cubsfan]

You guys just kill me. You can't make up your minds.

 

First Trump is an isolationist, then Trump is an expansionist.

 

Then he's withdrawing military support, now he's using military force.

 

What a fricking joke.

 

Europe has all the cards to do what they like with Ukraine - but refuse to, because you want a continuation of war.  Trump comes in to try and negotiate peace - and all of a sudden he's blackmailing Ukraine??  

 

You can't make this shit up.

 

Obviously you want a continuation of war in Ukraine - so buckle up with Zelensky and go conquer Russia. 

 

There is no reason for Europe or Ukraine to put up with "blackmail" by the USA.

 

 

[cwericb]

I am becoming increasingly concerned about investing in the U.S.A. 

 

Deporting millions, firing thousands, cancelling projects? Tell me how that is not going to have a major impact on unemployment figures. 

 

Any 10 year old can see that slapping 10-25% taxes on everything imported into the U.S. MUST raise prices for all Americans and cause inflation.

 

Buying Greenland, rebuilding Gaza? And, anyone in their right mind knows that if the US intends on doing anything in Gaza it will require massive ongoing military support. And the cost would be astronomical. Or has the Middle East now somehow become a stable place to do business?

 

Who is going to replace all the foreign workers deported? Certainly not the thousands of fired civil service workers being laid off.

 

And systematically threatening all US allies? What the hell is the plan going forward? 

 

Europe, Canada and other markets are starting to look a lot more like a better investment avenues, even if the US is run by a "very stable genius", or maybe just a guy who should be put in a stable with the rest of the ... oh, never mind.