US franchises at risk ?

[SharperDingaan]

Canada (and the world) have begun to respond to Trumps attacks via promotion of 'buy local'; essentially, anything that is a US import is toxic. One of the consequences is declining sales at franchisee's that hire local, rent local, buy local (for the most part) ... that are owned by American franchisers; franchiser branding has made them toxic, and global Q1 2024 international sales are likely to take a hit.

 

Within Canada there are quite a few of these franchisees, they collectively add quite a bit of economic activity, and one of the circulating solutions is 'soft nationalisation'. A national government collects the franchisee payments, and temporarily holds them in trust until the tariffs thing is resolved. Franchisee contracts are protected under 'force majeure' provisions, they are now able to brand as 'local' to mitigate disruption and maintain their economic activity ... and the franchiser (primarily US) is now captive to tariff resolution. Share prices drop like a rock, indexes drop, and the more that others follow ... the worse it gets. All hail the orange boy!

 

Tech is particularly vulnerable, there are ready alternatives for most tech things, and few are likely to cry if Elon and the 'magnificent 7' companies are simultaneously targeted by US trade partners. Priced at perfection, quite a few would see a hard sell off on the DOW/NASDAQ as both a desirable thing, and a future buying opportunity. Again, all hail the orange boy! 

 

Trump throws up tariffs, the rest of the world attacks the level of the DOW/NASDAQ .... and shorts on the way down. Inside trading around the sale of meme coin, offset against inside trading around index shorts; not too many are likely to disagree with the 'market' solution.

 

We live in interesting times.

 

SD

 

        

Edited Monday at 05:52 PM by SharperDingaan

[rogermunibond]

It's like the whole world has forgotten the work of Adam Smith.

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

It's like the whole world has forgotten the work of Adam Smith.

 

Yes, Roger [ @rogermunibond ],

 

There is to me personally no doubt that SDs [ @SharperDingaans ] starting post in this topic has merit, because of the way all this tariff talk has been communicated by the newly sworn-in POTUS has been highly influential on general sentiment towards USA at the populations in countries being allies with USA and being hit by this tariff talk.

 

To me personally, it's a real and tangible thing building up here in Europe by now.

 

I'm pretty sure for EU, it'll be swift eye-for-an-eye, tooth-for-a-tooth priciples of reactions by measured reponses against USA with regard to tariffs, based on an inner solidarity priciple - 'one for all, - all for one' - not some whining by filing of complaint cases against USA in WTO.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Posted certainly not with the intent to politicize the topic, and here trying to be careful and conciderate in phrasing, not to stir the pot.

Edited Monday at 09:24 PM by John Hjorth

[SharperDingaan]

The problem with gaming is that there are always people screwing up the pay-offs, and their 'wins' may well be counter-productive to yours. Trying for a 'golden-age' measured by the level of exchange indexes, by risking levels of unemployment and poverty on par with the 1929 Great Depression, is just stupid. You send us to hell, we're taking you with us; in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). 

 

Nobody has to roll over maturing US T-Bills, there are a great many alternatives, and there is now a growing need to spread the risk. The US Fed may well be raising rates because it is already hitting a debt-wall, that is only avoidable .... so long as USD remains the dominant reserve currency. Reduce these roll overs in a big way ... and the game changes. Negatively target the indexes to give it a nudge .... 

 

The way out is to end it as soon as possible.

 

SD            

Edited Monday at 11:15 PM by SharperDingaan

[Castanza]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-economics-show/id1746352576?i=1000689712495
 

Very good fair and balanced piece imo. 
 

 

[Ulti]

https://davenadig.substack.com/p/trust-in-a-black-hat-world.

 

just another opine on how the world sees the US now

[Castanza]

Makes me think of WB quote: 

 

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to destroy it.” 

[Ulti]

Here’s the wreckage as of Feb. 14, as compiled by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition.

At least 11,500 Americans and 54,575 foreigners have lost their jobs. Nearly $1 billion in payments for work already done has been frozen. Nearly $500 million in food is sitting in ports, ships and warehouses. In Syria, a country struggling to recover from chaos, food and other support for nearly 900,000 people has been suspended. In West Africa, 3.4 million people in 11 countries have lost drug treatment for deadly tropical diseases. At least 328,000 HIV-positive people in 25 countries aren’t getting lifesaving drugs.

U.S. security will suffer, not just needy foreigners, according to the coalition’s research. Foreign military financing for key regional partners such as Jordan and Taiwan has been frozen. Unpaid guards temporarily walked off their jobs securing the al-Hol and Roj camps in Syria that hold 10,000 Islamic State fighters and 40,000 families. A USAID counterterrorism program that had been training forces in Indonesia, Iraq, Libya, Malaysia, Somalia and Yemen has also been halted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/02/21/usaid-trump-freeze-marocco-foreign-aid/

 David Ignatius falls into the George Will and Thomas Friedman… thoughtful , moderate to conservative in views and pragmatic ( just my opinion)

 

[John Hjorth]

Somehow, my ''main fuse' blew' reading your above post, @Ulti 

[Ulti]

Curious as to why?

[Ulti]

https://roughdraftatlanta.com/2025/02/20/usaids-cuts-affect-atlanta-based-nonprofits/

 

Cuts form Cater Center health initiatives among others.

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Ulti said:

Here’s the wreckage as of Feb. 14, as compiled by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition.

At least 11,500 Americans and 54,575 foreigners have lost their jobs. Nearly $1 billion in payments for work already done has been frozen. Nearly $500 million in food is sitting in ports, ships and warehouses. In Syria, a country struggling to recover from chaos, food and other support for nearly 900,000 people has been suspended. In West Africa, 3.4 million people in 11 countries have lost drug treatment for deadly tropical diseases. At least 328,000 HIV-positive people in 25 countries aren’t getting lifesaving drugs.

U.S. security will suffer, not just needy foreigners, according to the coalition’s research. Foreign military financing for key regional partners such as Jordan and Taiwan has been frozen. Unpaid guards temporarily walked off their jobs securing the al-Hol and Roj camps in Syria that hold 10,000 Islamic State fighters and 40,000 families. A USAID counterterrorism program that had been training forces in Indonesia, Iraq, Libya, Malaysia, Somalia and Yemen has also been halted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/02/21/usaid-trump-freeze-marocco-foreign-aid/

 David Ignatius falls into the George Will and Thomas Friedman… thoughtful , moderate to conservative in views and pragmatic ( just my opinion)

 

 

Believe me - no one feels sorry for federal government workers having to deal with layoffs.

 

The abuses, waste and corruption being uncovered are extraodinary. Americans are pissed.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Ulti said:

https://roughdraftatlanta.com/2025/02/20/usaids-cuts-affect-atlanta-based-nonprofits/

 

Cuts form Cater Center health initiatives among others.

 

The article forgot to "thank" USAID for funding COVID19 research in the Wuhan Lab with their $40M donation. USAID really did their part in killing millions of people around the world.

[Junior R]

6 hours ago, Castanza said:

Makes me think of WB quote: 

 

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to destroy it.” 

I think it is already happening..In Canada people are switching to Canadian Produced or ETFS that are run buy Canadian companies 

[longlake95]

30 minutes ago, Junior R said:

I think it is already happening..In Canada people are switching to Canadian Produced or ETFS that are run buy Canadian companies 

 

Except they are still using Word, google, iPhone and Facebook...

[Junior R]

2 minutes ago, longlake95 said:

 

Except they are still using Word, google, iPhone and Facebook...

Correct Americas biggest key is technology...There is really no Western competitor to any of those technologies 

Edited 11 hours ago by Junior R

[Ulti]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Believe me - no one feels sorry for federal government workers having to deal with layoffs.

 

I respectfully disagree… I have friends both at NIH and CDC…. While I agree , as do they , that there is a tremendous amount of waste ….a more rational business approach of say, 10% budget reduction for all departments the 1st year in combination of learning where the waste is and trimming over a period of months would have been better.. Obviously smarter people can come up with better solutions… carpet bombing 

the federal government haphazardly just doesn’t seem rational( again just my opinion)

[Ulti]

https://warontherocks.com/2025/02/from-strategy-to-action-rethinking-how-the-state-department-works-2/
 

Rubio acknowledges and recognizes the need to revamp streamline and maybe downsize the State Department…. Some rational thinking as to how

 

[Ulti]

https://www.state.gov/priorities-and-mission-of-the-second-trump-administrations-department-of-state/?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=hero&utm_campaign=s_priorities
 

fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions:

Does it make America safer?  

Does it make America stronger?  

Does it make America more prosperous?  

 To advance our national interest, we will build a more innovative, nimble, and focused State Department. This will require replacing some priorities, deemphasizing some issues, and eliminating some practices.

 

sounds pretty rational