25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

[LC]

7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

So you want to distort what I have been saying - go right ahead @LC

 

You left out this part: tariffs with the Narco State forces President Sheinbaum to the table.

It costs her and her corrupt government big, big money - until such time that she sends the Mexican army to the border and LOCKS it down - just like happened during Trump's first term.

That was a huge success.

 

 

To be fair I just quoted your post, not sure what I distorted. 

 

But I don't see how Trump's 1st term was a fentanyl success. Looks like that's when it started taking off.

 

Nor do I see his actions having any impact on border incidents. Instead it looks like the trend beginning 2010 maintained thru 2019. Maybe we should be thanking Obama instead

 

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Every single aspect of this is full-blown stupid. If it goes through, expect inflation.

 

Any wonder Buffett has $325B in cash now?  Cheers!

[james22]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

By all means, please let us in on the real issue

 

Special Interest Aliens

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

But most Americans agree they have had enough of fentanyl deaths, child sex trafficking, crime, open borders - especially with Mexico. Why would they care about the WSJ - a leftist rag.

 

There will be pain, but there will be safety. US capitalism makes amazingly quick adjustments.

 

May be true, may be not.  During the Oil Embargo, it wasn't as easy as you make it sound.  

 

Trump could have played hardball, but he chose to just burn the entire field...so no one plays, no one wins...everyone loses!  

 

Cheers!

[Red Lion]

54 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

Then I imagine there would be significant inflation in the cost of food.

Seems like that could backfire since doesn’t Canada import a fair amount of its food from the US? 

[Masterofnone]

19 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

That’s a shitload of fentanyl. 
 

* I don’t think tariffs will fix this problem just to be clear. 

21,318,824 .01mg doses to be exact if the 47 pounds is 100% pure.

[Red Lion]

12 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Yes but to put it into perspective there was 26,700 pounds from Mexico in 2023. 

I get that which is why I said I didn’t think tariffs would stop this problem. But I have two follow up points and a question. 

 

1) Mexico is the largest producer of fentanyl and a narco state 

2) no one is looking for fentanyl at the Canadian border. 
3) where is the Canadian fentanyl coming from? (Did you guess china too?)

[Red Lion]

4 minutes ago, Masterofnone said:

21,318,824 .01mg doses to be exact if the 47 pounds is 100% pure.

Then factor in the 90+% that didn’t get caught because we don’t have serious drug enforcement at the Canadian border. That sure is a lot for a country that’s not producing fentanyl.

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

I get that which is why I said I didn’t think tariffs would stop this problem. But I have two follow up points and a question. 

 

1) Mexico is the largest producer of fentanyl and a narco state 

2) no one is looking for fentanyl at the Canadian border. 
3) where is the Canadian fentanyl coming from? (Did you guess china too?)

Actually, most of it comes from Mexico, through the US.  Canada isn't a major producer of fentanyl and certainly not a major exporter.  

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Of course! It gives tremendous leverage over a narco state like Mexico. I'd say it's the ONLY way to deal with a corrupt government like Mexico.

 

Just look at Columbia - they folded like a cheap suit.

 

You push people far enough on taxes and tariffs, you may get outcomes you don't want.  Already, you have many countries rethinking their trade alliances and why they made concessions for the U.S. as their first and preferential client for trade. 

 

Do you think U.S. security and economics is at more risk or less if Canada, Mexico, South America and the Norwegian countries start to do far more trade with China, India and Russia?  Canada banned Huawei because of China's use of their technology to gather information and espionage, but maybe Canada backtracks and moves to using more non-U.S. tech.  How does that help U.S. security or trade?  Cheers!

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, Red Lion said:

Then factor in the 90+% that didn’t get caught because we don’t have serious drug enforcement at the Canadian border. That sure is a lot for a country that’s not producing fentanyl.

And multiple the same for Mexico.

[Red Lion]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

And multiple the same for Mexico.

You’re missing my point which is that 1) Cañada doesn’t produce fentanyl 2) there’s very little control of the border and 3) this is Chinese fentanyl.
 

Read my other posts instead of cherry picking my comments. Mexico makes and transports more drugs into the USA than Canada. No shit. 

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Lazarus said:

I seem to recall the betting markets had tariffs against Canada at only 18% probability. This isn't baked in, at least not in the Cdn market.

 

Ontario alone was predicting 500,000 job losses due to the tariffs. This guarantees a major recession in Canada, presumably with a stock market sell off. We might see FFH get dumped with the rest of the Cdn market. 

 

Don't confuse volatility with risk.  With $40B in bonds and $8B in cash, Fairfax is extremely well-positioned to take advantage of undervalued opportunities and hardly any of their businesses will be affected by tariffs.  They should be licking their chops if things get volatile!  Cheers! 

[dwy000]

10 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

You’re missing my point which is that 1) Cañada doesn’t produce fentanyl 2) there’s very little control of the border and 3) this is Chinese fentanyl.
 

Read my other posts instead of cherry picking my comments. Mexico makes and transports more drugs into the USA than Canada. No shit. 

My understanding is that the ingredients are from China but the production is in Mexico.  Regardless, my point is that putting tarriffs on your largest trading partner to stop something that they aren't doing (in any amount that makes a difference) is irrational and self-harming. 

[Red Lion]

Just now, dwy000 said:

My understanding is that the ingredients are from China but the production is in Mexico.  Regardless, my point is that putting tarriffs on your largest trading partner to stop something that they aren't doing (in any amount that makes a difference) is irrational and self-harming. 

How could that be your point when I said I didn’t think tariffs would help? 
 

anyway actually look into the history. China actually created the fentanyl black market until Mexico took over as the major producer.
 

you think Mexican fentanyl is coming over the Canadian border into the USA? I’ll agree to disagree. 
 

Again I do agree it’s stupid to slap tariffs on Canada for many reasons. But Canada’s lax approach to china is a threat to homeland security on so many more issues than just fentanyl. 

[Hektor]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Companies like Linamar will be hit hard. The auto supply business has <10% EBIt margins, so they can’t rats the price. The customer will have to pay more or not get parts. How quickly can you get an alternative supplier in the US to deliver a few million of those after an RFQ?

US/CAN and US/MEX Railroads may be an opportunity to look at.

[cwericb]

"But Canada’s lax approach to china is a threat to homeland security on so many more issues than just fentanyl.  "

 

So driving Canada to find other trading partners like China is a great idea?  Really???

 

You have no idea of how insulted and ticked off Canadians are at this point. Be careful what you wish for.

 

 

[Hektor]

From NYTimes

 

How sweeping are the tariffs?

All goods imported from Canada and Mexico will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, except Canadian energy products, which will face a 10 percent tariff, according to the executive orders. The orders also placed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

The auto and electric equipment sectors in Mexico are most exposed to disruption from sweeping tariffs, as is mineral processing in Canada, according to economists at S&P Global. In the United States, the largest risks are to farming, fishing, metal and auto production.

[dwy000]

7 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

How could that be your point when I said I didn’t think tariffs would help? 
 

anyway actually look into the history. China actually created the fentanyl black market until Mexico took over as the major producer.
 

you think Mexican fentanyl is coming over the Canadian border into the USA? I’ll agree to disagree. 
 

Again I do agree it’s stupid to slap tariffs on Canada for many reasons. But Canada’s lax approach to china is a threat to homeland security on so many more issues than just fentanyl. 

Huh?  We are agreeing!!  I don't think Mexican fentanyl is coming into the US thru Canada.  And i don't think tarriffs work to solve a problem that doesn't exist. Maybe your "that's a shitload of fentanyl" was sarcastic and it doesn't come across on a post. 

 

To Parsads point, if Canada is lax on Chinese security i can't figure out how driving Canada towards China is helpful to the US

[LC]

You guys are missing the plan: A great way to limit US fentanyl deaths is to make US citizens so poor that they can't afford it!

[Buckeye]

41 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Don't confuse volatility with risk.  With $40B in bonds and $8B in cash, Fairfax is extremely well-positioned to take advantage of undervalued opportunities and hardly any of their businesses will be affected by tariffs.  They should be licking their chops if things get volatile!  Cheers! 

 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, LC said:

 

To be fair I just quoted your post, not sure what I distorted. 

 

But I don't see how Trump's 1st term was a fentanyl success. Looks like that's when it started taking off.

 

Nor do I see his actions having any impact on border incidents. Instead it looks like the trend beginning 2010 maintained thru 2019. Maybe we should be thanking Obama instead

 

 

Huh??

\ You just proved my case. During the Obama/Trump years, the border was locked down.

Your graph shows 2021, 2022, 2023 - illegal crossings were off the charts!

 

That's what I've been saying all along.

 

Thank you @LC

[cwericb]

Less than 1% of drugs and ileagles come into the US from Canada. This isn't about the border.

 

Why would US/Trump violate signed agreements and declare an economic war on your closest ally as well as piss off so many  other US allies? 
 

Remember that very secret meeting between Trump and Putin? Remember his love affair with Kim Jong Un and the president of China. One does have to wonder what the real agenda is.

[james22]

16 minutes ago, cwericb said:

You have no idea of how insulted and ticked off Canadians are at this point. Be careful what you wish for.

 

Oh no.

Are you going to be any less responsible with regard to border security and mutual defense?

[Mephistopheles]

10% tarriff on Canadian oil.

 

and we have OXY at a 52 week low.

 

time to buy?!