[Poll & Discussion] CofB&F members' returns for 2024 [Pre tax, and after fees, commisions etc.]

[John Hjorth]

It's true, Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

It really does not make much sense to put too much into it. The calendar year related to a given investment is totally meaningless in the majority of cases.

 

Then there is also the definitions of returns for asset classes, in which certain board members are involved : Privately held businesses and privately held real estate. Alone measuring returns on publicly traded stock is a disipline of it self.

 

Then there is risk, and the measurement and perception of risk related to a given investment, and compared to personal risk tolerance.

 

So votes in the attached poll aren't much worth, however what CofB&F members post in this topic provides great insights to other members way of thinking and modus operandi, and therein lies the value of this topic on a yearly basis.

 

Posting in this topic calls for personal reflexion.

[aws]

I finally decided to do the math, and my returns came out to +26.9% for the year. That’s pretty much in line with the indices and, based on poll responses, seems to be a common result for the forum as well. This makes sense since I’ve put a lot of my investments on autopilot by DCA into the indices.

 

When it comes to picking individual stocks, I’ve stepped back quite a bit. I’ve reached a point where I’m comfortable as long as I avoid doing anything reckless. The potential upside from taking bigger risks wouldn’t significantly improve my quality of life, so I don’t see the point in chasing it. I still dabble a little, but none of my individual positions resulted in a realized gain or loss of more than 0.5% of my total capital for the year.

[compoundvalue]

~+84.6% across accounts including multiple outflows and inflows which make calculating a bit more complicated. I strive to use same methodology to calculate consistently across fiscal years so hopefully not too much noise. The portfolio is quite concentrated with top 5 positions at north of 90% of portfolio which may lead to unusual results such as this year's but also significant underperformance in others

 

Historical

2024: ~+84.6%

2023: ~+24.5%

2022: ~-17.6%

2021: ~+39%
2020:~-5%
2019*: N/A

2018*: N/A
2017: ~+42.1%
2016: ~+26%

 

 

* Had a job that wouldn’t allow me trade during 2018-2019

 

Edited January 8 by compoundvalue

[John Hjorth]

@compoundvalue,

 

Congratulations!, - What's the explanation of the asterixs for '17 and '18, including the 'N/A's for those years?

[compoundvalue]

Apologies unintentionally left out the footnote (edited now to add it...):  had a job that wouldn’t allow me trade during 2018-2019

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, compoundvalue said:

Apologies unintentionally left out the footnote (edited now to add it...):  had a job that wouldn’t allow me trade during 2018-2019

 

Thanks for the elaboration, @compoundvalue.

[maplevalue]

2019 +16.9%

2020 +12.5%

2021 +12.9%

2022 -12.6%

2023 +21.3%

2023 +26.8%

 

A bit of an interesting performance last couple of years where returns close to FTSE Global All-Cap despite fact my portfolio looks very very different to index (overweight EM and FFH specifically).

[John Hjorth]

Just a friendly *bump* here, directed at those CofB&F members, who may not yet have taken the poll.

 

And thank you very much to all those CofB&F members, who in this topic have shared with us all their thoughts! At least to me, it's always - each year - an interesting read, to get to know about how you personally think about investing in the recent environment!

[Dynamic]

26.7% USD-denominated gain in 2024 starting with 54.7% cash (not for especially strategic reasons) and ending with 17.4% cash.

 

$BRK.B contributed to gains, but added to $FFH.TO in a very big way as I solidified my understanding and confidence, making it my largest position in a very concentrated portfolio gradually through the year and it did exceptionally well and I believe remains undervalued, so I did fine despite the cash drag.

 

We've been early-retired since the end of 2021 and have grown the portfolio significantly since then despite withdrawing cash and widened the lead over the SP500TR index. Avoiding losses in 2022 was a big help.

 

My Lowball value figure is an estimate of trough pricing of my holdings if they get beaten down, such as 120% of BVPS for Berkshire, and say 5x EPS or 90% of BVPS for Fairfax. In the long term it tends to track with growth in Intrinsic Value. Cash is valued at par, so the decline in my Lowball valuation in 2024 reflects going from a large cash position valued dollar for dollar to a large $FFH.TO position whose Lowball value was probably more than 50% below Intrinsic Value and maybe 20% below Market Price at time of purchase. In the long run I've used the Lowball value to gauge progress towards reaching retirement in a more market-neutral and conservative way than say the 4% rule applied to current market valuation. Over the years I tracked our progress towards retirement by working out a comfortable income for our modest spending some years ago and increasing it by the inflation index in the UK, then capitalising it at a suitably conservative rate for CAGR net of inflation, post-retirement (e.g. 3.5% to 4.5% real returns).

 

Cal Year	USD gain	outperf vs SP500 TR	pre tax GBP gain	Lowball value USD gain
2016	24.2%	12.2%	54.2%	19.1%
2017	24.8%	3.0%	14.1%	12.7%
2018	25.3%	29.7%	33.0%	44.8%
2019	18.0%	-13.5%	13.6%	5.4%
2020	-3.4%	-21.8%	-6.0%	32.4%
2021	79.6%	50.9%	81.4%	34.2%
2022	24.1%	42.2%	39.8%	38.3%
2023	9.8%	-16.5%	3.9%	22.0%
2024	26.7%	1.7%	28.6%	-8.7%
cagr	23.9%	9.4%	26.8%	21.1%

[LC]

8 hours ago, Dynamic said:

Avoiding losses in 2022 was a big help

 

I think it's an underrated point. Keeping COVID gains during 2022 (IIRC I broke even - congrats on a great 2022 for you!) solidified some life changes for me. And then being able to dump a lot of that into Fairfax - worked out very well. 

 

Matching performance or outperforming during good years is of course the goal, but to extend a popular analogy - holding onto your pants when the tide pulls out is how you build wealth.  

[cwericb]

I haven't bothered to post returns due to a discouraging December and first half of January. However, I expect (hope?) things will turn around over the next few weeks.

 

But I really shouldn't complain as I still managed a gain of 50.1% in my stock portfolio for 2024 (was pushing toward 60% early December). Also, this doesn't include dividends which would add another perhaps 2ish% to the total. 

 

Just going by memory I was up 38% in 2021, 14% in 2022, 28% (?) in 2023 and 50.1% in 2024. But the compound gain over those years has been freaking amazing! Capital gain tax will be a bitch but that may well be my heirs problem.

 

If I have done fairly well, much of this has been almost entirely due to this board and it's members with a little good judgement on my part thrown in. So thank you all so much!

 

My top positions have been:

Fairfax /FFH,

TerraVest Industries /TVK,

Royal Bank /RY,

Aecon Group /ARE,

Altius /ALS,

AtkinsRéalis /ATRL,

Stelco also helped.

 

Fairfax accounts for about 55% of my portfolio and at this point I have no intentions of reducing that, despite the fact that I am a little uncomfortable of having "too many eggs in one basket". I think Fairfax share price will probably see an increase as we get closer to 2024 results being released and also as we again see expectations of an add to the TSX 60 in a couple of months.

 

Edited Thursday at 03:36 PM by cwericb

[Jaygo]

Came in around 61% the big wins were Terravest, Aritzia, Velan, Aecon, Par tech, Dynacore, Omai Gold Mines, Vitalhub and Fairfax.

 

The kennel portfolio (citi, HD, MMM, AAP, CVX) did ok. Had some BRK trade arounds that would be around 35% on the year.

 

Had a whole bunch of losers too. Most real estate was flat to down, lost on Wajax, Richelieu, a couple energy names and almost anything to do with housing.

 

Sometimes I feel like a really good speculator but then I look into my portfolio and its a real manic mess. I have everything from microcaps to mega caps, value to expected takeout's to outright gambling. Many ideas I just pawn off here and twitter, some are my own from sauntering through life and work.

[Dynamic]

14 hours ago, cwericb said:

Fairfax accounts for about 55% of my portfolio and at this point I have no intentions of reducing that, despite the fact that I am a little uncomfortable of having "too many eggs in one basket". I think Fairfax share price will probably see an increase as we get closer to 2024 results being released and also as we again see expectations of an add to the TSX 60 in a couple of months.

 

Fantastic results. Well done. I am at an eerily similar concentration of FFH that I want to let ride as it remains undervalued and has good prospects (though I was late to that party compared to you, I'm sure), but also have a decent chunk of uninvested cash. Trying to avoid selling too soon with the best compounders, though who knows when an even better high conviction opportunity might come up and lead me to sell down at least some.