CIBC says Fairfax is likely to be added to the S&P/TSX 60 in December 2024 - sell decisions

[Hoodlum]

35 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Seeing a Scotia trade after the open for 4,700 shares @ $2500.  We will find out later what Fairfax was buying during this period.

 

Edit:  Just noticed that we had two 50k cross trades by Scotia yesterday for $2475 at 2:47pm (Market Z).   I had missed this originally.

 

 

 

I noticed that this 100k trade was done through CBOE exchange instead of the TSX.  I also noticed a similar large trade on 11/11 for 227k shares at CBOE, but I cannot confirm that trade was also Scotia as I have hit my daily limit at Stockwatch for my free account  LOL.  But the 11/11 trade for 227k shares would seem to line up with the 274k November buybacks that @SafetyinNumbers previously reported.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Hoodlum]

20 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

 

I noticed that this 100k trade was done through CBOE exchange instead of the TSX.  I also noticed a similar large trade on 11/11 for 227k shares at CBOE, but I cannot confirm that trade was also Scotia as I have hit my daily limit at Stockwatch for my free account  LOL.  But the 11/11 trade for 227k shares would seem to line up with the 274k November buybacks that @SafetyinNumbers previously reported.

 

 

 

I was able to confirm that the large trade done through CBOE on 11/11 was also through Scotia, similar to the 100k CBOE Scotia trade from Tuesday.  The 11/11 trade was also split in two (2 x 109,645 shares), similar to the 2 x 50k share trade from Tuesday.  It seems like only the large block Scotia buybacks are done through CBOE, with the smaller buybacks done through TSX. 

 

We will find out in January but it looks like Fairfax bought back 100k shares on Tuesday.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2025 by Hoodlum

[backtothebeach]

So what's going to be the highest price today, last trading day before index inclusion? The closing price? Asking for a friend.

[backtothebeach]

5 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

So what's going to be the highest price today, last trading day before index inclusion? The closing price? Asking for a friend.

Answer: Yes. Closing price CA$ 2540.97. A lot of MOC volume. Congrats everyone!
 

Edited December 19, 2025 by backtothebeach

[This2ShallPass]

Nice!! I have never traded Fairfax, but buying below $1600 was too good to pass up. Now what, do we take some profits on the swing trade or wait for earnings? 

 

On 12/19/2025 at 1:26 PM, Haryana said:

Worked out as plan, good one. 

@SafetyinNumbers good call, played out as you predicted. What happens after index inclusion typically, does price continue to move up or is there profit taking?

 

[Crip1]

7 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

Nice!! I have never traded Fairfax, but buying below $1600 was too good to pass up. Now what, do we take some profits on the swing trade or wait for earnings? 

 

@SafetyinNumbers good call, played out as you predicted. What happens after index inclusion typically, does price continue to move up or is there profit taking?

 

I rarely trade, but did so this past couple of months. Added about 5% to my position, intended to be permanent, at US1,600. I also traded a few times with average buy of $1,580 and average sell of $1,774. 

 

That said, waiting for earnings vs. selling now. If you bought with the goal of re-selling for a quick profit...do it. If you're considering hanging on for the long-term, then don't sell. FFH is my largest position, by far, so I am putting my money where my mouth is.

 

-Crip

[SafetyinNumbers]

19 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

Nice!! I have never traded Fairfax, but buying below $1600 was too good to pass up. Now what, do we take some profits on the swing trade or wait for earnings? 

 

@SafetyinNumbers good call, played out as you predicted. What happens after index inclusion typically, does price continue to move up or is there profit taking?

 

I think it’s idiosyncratic. Could see some profit taking but the seasonal trade is still in Fairfax’s favour which is not surprising given all of the news flow over the next 5 months. 

[cwericb]

Now this is just me, but If I were to sell a stock and the price started moving up immediately after I sold, I would have a hard time buying back shares at a higher price than I sold for. Now that may not be very rational, but.... Recently I have gotten a little better at this, but man, it really sucks buying back shares that that I recently sold for less. 

 

As for Fairfax here, I have no intention of selling because if share price backs off a bit, all indications are that share price should increase as time goes on and also, year end results should confirm faith in the direction the company is going. I think that the add to the TSX will help legitimize the company to doubters and increase demand. Will be interesting to see if the add to the TSX impresses Mr. Horn.....

JMHO 

[UK]

16 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think it’s idiosyncratic. Could see some profit taking but the seasonal trade is still in Fairfax’s favour which is not surprising given all of the news flow over the next 5 months. 

 

And it is still not that expensive, perhaps at least until some ~1.7 BV, with nice additial bump in fundamentals in this period coming.

 

If I may ask, do you do/plan to do some trading around you FFH position or just keep such allocation no matter what for now?

 

Also thanks for that podcast, was a pleasure to listen!

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, UK said:

 

And it is still not that expensive, perhaps at least until some ~1.7 BV, with nice additial bump in fundamentals in this period coming.

 

If I may ask, do you do/plan to do some trading around you FFH position or just keep such allocation no matter what for now?

 

Also thanks for that podcast, was a pleasure to listen!

Thanks!
 

I’m not used to having concentrated positions and Fairfax is pretty special. I haven’t traded around my position and have only added. My plan is to trim when I forecast forward ROE < 10% which should keep me in the position for a long time. I think it will be challenging (but rewarding) to hold on as the multiple expands well beyond 1.7x. 

[Phoenix01]

It will be interesting to see how the inclusion in index will impact the volume around the dividend.  Last year the dividend was announced on January 3rd and payable on January 23, 2025 to shareholders of record on January 16, 2025.

[dartmonkey]

On 12/6/2025 at 5:01 PM, dartmonkey said:

I see no reason for a pullback, no. My guess would be a modest incrase monday, say 5%, with an increase of 10% by the 19th. Hopefully I’m wrong and it plunges. 

Looks like we won't get the hoped-for plunge.

 

Price on Friday Dec. 5 at close, before the announcement: US$1679

Close on Monday Dec. 8, the first trading day after the announcement: $1751.53, so up 4.3%

Close on Friday Dec. 19, the day of TSX60 index inclusion: $1830, so up 9.0%

As I write this, on Dec. 23: $1880.43, so up 12.0%

 

It's been another year of strong price gains. After dropping 26% in 2020, shares rebounded and have seen increases of 48%, 23%, 58%, 53% and now 37% in the last 5 years, adjusted for dividends.

 

 

With the share price increase, my stake has become 48% of my holdings but I'm not selling. Shares may be up 500% since the end of 2020 but I think the company's performance has matched the share price increase, so they are not much more expensive now than they were 5 years ago. Current price:book is 1.60, but that book is undervalued both because it is based on end of Q3 share values (Fairfax's biggest mark to market positions are uip, 8% for the TRSs and 33% for Orla), but especially because other positions that are equity-accounted like Eurobank are undervalued compared to their publically traded values. 

 

Edited December 31, 2025 by dartmonkey