CIBC says Fairfax is likely to be added to the S&P/TSX 60 in December 2024 - sell decisions

[Hoodlum]

5 minutes ago, Hamburg Investor said:

sorry for asking, but whom are they talking to and why? Is it that they are expecting a better price? But why should the seller at a low price from their perspective? So is it likely for them to find someone owning a. a big chunk of FFH and b. willing to sell in the moment where momentum kicks in…?!

 

That concept of selling for the latter only makes sense, if the owners don’t expect the price to go up more over the next weeks and months. And, I mean, owning a stock outside of any index defines you as an owner a relatively „independent“ investor in contrast to an institutional investor, so I’d assume less pressure to sell.
 

Where am I wrong here?

 

While your logic makes sense from mine and your perspective, there are funds that own a large amount of Fairfax share and may be willing to sell some shares at an agreed on price.  Many funds in Canada do have a limit on how much they can allocate to one stock, so as Fairfax stock price has risen they will look to reduce the amount of shares they have.  I am sure there are others on this board that can shed more light on this.

[Masterofnone]

Come on... it is what it is. Check back the end of the year and see how supply and demand plays out. Each player has strategies/games to optimize their trading results. 

Greater recognition should certainly provide a near term bump but unless you have a trading position how does this truly benefit long term?

[yqsun]

33 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

 

While your logic makes sense from mine and your perspective, there are funds that own a large amount of Fairfax share and may be willing to sell some shares at an agreed on price.  Many funds in Canada do have a limit on how much they can allocate to one stock, so as Fairfax stock price has risen they will look to reduce the amount of shares they have.  I am sure there are others on this board that can shed more light on this.

AI shed some light 
 

[yqsun]

29 minutes ago, yqsun said:

AI shed some light 
 

A revised version:
 

Yes — based on the numbers we’ve gone through, a total of roughly 500,000 FFH shares is entirely reasonable for index‑related demand when Fairfax Financial (FFH) is added to the TSX 60. Let me summarize why:

---

Key Data Points

• FFH float-adjusted market cap: 19.11 M shares × C$2,435 ≈ C$46.5 B

• FFH weight in TSX 60: ~1.26%

• Total TSX 60–linked assets: ETFs (~CAD 23–25 B) + mutual funds (~CAD 40–80 B) + institutional “closet index” allocations → roughly CAD 60–120 B, mid-point ~80–90 B

---

Shares Required

• Using mid-point AUM (~CAD 80–90 B) × 1.26% weight → ~CAD 1.0–1.1 B invested in FFH

• At C$2,435/share → ~410,000–460,000 shares

• Round up to account for some operational buffer → ~500,000 shares

---

Fraction of Float

• Float = 19.11 M shares

• 500,000 shares ≈ 2.6% of float

• Very manageable — it’s a small fraction of free float, so liquidity risk is low, though it could create mild upward price pressure in the short term.

---

Conclusion

• Yes, the estimate of ~500k shares to be purchased by ETFs + mutual funds + institutional “closet index” holders is plausible and consistent with the size of the TSX 60 index AUM and FFH’s weight.

• The actual trades are likely to be spread over several days leading up to Dec 22 to avoid market impact, but the total demand is reasonable and feasible.

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, yqsun said:

A revised version:
 

Yes — based on the numbers we’ve gone through, a total of roughly 500,000 FFH shares is entirely reasonable for index‑related demand when Fairfax Financial (FFH) is added to the TSX 60. Let me summarize why:

---

Key Data Points

• FFH float-adjusted market cap: 19.11 M shares × C$2,435 ≈ C$46.5 B

• FFH weight in TSX 60: ~1.26%

• Total TSX 60–linked assets: ETFs (~CAD 23–25 B) + mutual funds (~CAD 40–80 B) + institutional “closet index” allocations → roughly CAD 60–120 B, mid-point ~80–90 B

---

Shares Required

• Using mid-point AUM (~CAD 80–90 B) × 1.26% weight → ~CAD 1.0–1.1 B invested in FFH

• At C$2,435/share → ~410,000–460,000 shares

• Round up to account for some operational buffer → ~500,000 shares

---

Fraction of Float

• Float = 19.11 M shares

• 500,000 shares ≈ 2.6% of float

• Very manageable — it’s a small fraction of free float, so liquidity risk is low, though it could create mild upward price pressure in the short term.

---

Conclusion

• Yes, the estimate of ~500k shares to be purchased by ETFs + mutual funds + institutional “closet index” holders is plausible and consistent with the size of the TSX 60 index AUM and FFH’s weight.

• The actual trades are likely to be spread over several days leading up to Dec 22 to avoid market impact, but the total demand is reasonable and feasible.

Brokers are saying 550-800k of demand. The brokers are motivated to get the closing price on Dec 19 above the VWAP for the two-week period so they hold back some buying until the last day. 

[value_hunter]

The trading volume is so light today.

[Hamburg Investor]

3 hours ago, yqsun said:

AI shed some light 
 

 

I

3 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

 

While your logic makes sense from mine and your perspective, there are funds that own a large amount of Fairfax share and may be willing to sell some shares at an agreed on price.  Many funds in Canada do have a limit on how much they can allocate to one stock, so as Fairfax stock price has risen they will look to reduce the amount of shares they have.  I am sure there are others on this board that can shed more light on this.

@Hoodlum, thank you. I am not a professional investor, just investing for myself, so clearly don’t know anything about that.

 

@yqsun: I know, that a lot of shares have to been bought, my question was rather, why (or how) seller and buyer of stock find together not on the stock exchange, as I’d thought mispricing would be a thing both institutional seller and institutional buyer could get into reputation trouble: Like one of them would have to answer, why they did such a bad deal (like: „Why were you selling the funds Fairfax shares so cheap - it was obvious they would bring more on the open market“ or the opposite site of the trade being criticized like „Why were you buying a big chunk so expensive, it was obvious the price would be cheaper on the open market“).

 

[djokovic1]

57 minutes ago, value_hunter said:

The trading volume is so light today.

 

Yes less than average daily volume over last 1m, 3m, 1yr. Quite surprising! Either the passive indexers are waiting till a later date or the 500k incremental buying estimate is completely off. We will find out soon enough.

[UK]

11 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Brokers are saying 550-800k of demand. The brokers are motivated to get the closing price on Dec 19 above the VWAP for the two-week period so they hold back some buying until the last day. 

 

So if average volume is 50K+ shares and price not affecting volume max 30 per cent, does this mean at least 30 trading days of buying, in order to not increase the price and to get to the 500K shares?

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 hours ago, UK said:

 

So if average volume is 50K+ shares and price not affecting volume max 30 per cent, does this mean at least 30 trading days of buying, in order to not increase the price and to get to the 500K shares?

I don’t understand the assumptions but it’s traded 220k shares so far this week. They will get done but the price depends on where extant shareholders want to sell. Ultimately, they try to hold back enough demand for the last day/hour to ensure the 19th’s close is above their average cost. 

[Hoodlum]

37 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I don’t understand the assumptions but it’s traded 220k shares so far this week. They will get done but the price depends on where extant shareholders want to sell. Ultimately, they try to hold back enough demand for the last day/hour to ensure the 19th’s close is above their average cost. 

 

Fairfax is also doing buybacks at this price as they did buybacks as high at $2445 cdn during Q3 and the book value has since increased.   Other than the 26k block on Monday, I am only seeing about average volume so far.  You may be right about them waiting until Friday next week and this allows Fairfax to continue with their buybacks.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2025 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

45 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

 

Fairfax is also doing buybacks at this price as they did buybacks as high at $2445 cdn during Q3 and the book value has since increased.   Other than the 26k block on Monday, I am only seeing about average volume so far.  You may be right about them waiting until Friday next week and this allows Fairfax to continue with their buybacks.

 

 

Should use stockwatch.com to see all of the ATS volume as well. TSX is only part of the picture. 

[UK]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I don’t understand the assumptions but it’s traded 220k shares so far this week. They will get done but the price depends on where extant shareholders want to sell. Ultimately, they try to hold back enough demand for the last day/hour to ensure the 19th’s close is above their average cost. 

 

Thanks, it seems I got average trade volume wrong. 

[Hoodlum]

The first large block trade of 119k at the close today.

[value_hunter]

2 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

The first large block trade of 119k at the close today.

The interesting thing is the large block trade not push up price, but push down price.

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

The first large block trade of 119k at the close today.

Can you see the broker number?

[Hoodlum]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Can you see the broker number?

I saw National Bank on both the buy and sell side.  I don’t have a broker number.  Trade was actually for 102.2k @ $2433.21.  But there were over a 100 smaller trades at the close for the same price. 

Edited December 12, 2025 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

25 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I saw National Bank on both the buy and sell side.  I don’t have a broker number.  Trade was actually for 102.2k @ $2433.21.  But there were over a 100 smaller trades at the close for the same price. 

Thanks. NBF is 80. Scotia is 85 and they have the buyback. NBF put the order in the MOC facility it looks like. Any other markers on it?

[Hoodlum]

3 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Thanks. NBF is 80. Scotia is 85 and they have the buyback. NBF put the order in the MOC facility it looks like. Any other markers on it?

all the other trades at the close were for 1k or less and were across all brokers with RBC having the most trades on both the buy and sell sides 

[yqsun]

Come on, let’s do this! Nobody's putting their shares up for sale. I'm thinking the stock price will hit C$2600 by this Friday and could even hit C$3000 by 2026.

[UK]

28 minutes ago, yqsun said:

Come on, let’s do this! Nobody's putting their shares up for sale. I'm thinking the stock price will hit C$2600 by this Friday and could even hit C$3000 by 2026.

 

https://youtu.be/TUu0PNw3HqY?si=u-OZjb3hZ-ipj3Xl

 

Patience:) 

 

 

[Hoodlum]

On 12/11/2025 at 7:27 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:

Thanks. NBF is 80. Scotia is 85 and they have the buyback. NBF put the order in the MOC facility it looks like. Any other markers on it?

Scotia bought 24.4K at the close today.  So it looks like Fairfax is still buying. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

37 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Scotia bought 24.4K at the close today.  So it looks like Fairfax is still buying. 

The buyback wouldn’t buy on the close. They usually try not to trade near the market open and close. Also can’t guarantee it’s not an uptick in the MOC facility. I understand there was a cross by Scotia earlier in the day which is more likely to be them but could also just be another Scotia client. We’ll find out by January 10. 

[value_hunter]

Selling off now.

[Hoodlum]

Seeing a Scotia trade after the open for 4,700 shares @ $2500.  We will find out later what Fairfax was buying during this period.

 

Edit:  Just noticed that we had two 50k cross trades by Scotia yesterday for $2475 at 2:47pm (Market Z).   I had missed this originally.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Hoodlum