Junior R Posted Sunday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:50 AM (edited) 16 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: Another Trump trade is M&A. The witch will be out Yup this would be a good idea to find companies that a ripe for M&A 42 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: So how do we make money? The only thing I am convinced is that Trump creates more volatility. So keeping a stash of cash around for whatever opportunity arises seems like a good idea, especially considering current valuations. It might be the same play book at his last term...When he barks stocks go down buy and sell when he does nothing rinse and repeat in rrsp / 401k to get gains I think S&P 500 EPS Estimate for 2025 is $270 to $285 Lets say pe of 22 5940 for S&P at $270 estimate 6270 for S&P at $285 estimate Lets say pe of 23 6210 for S&P at $270 estimate 6555 for S&P at $285 estimate so maybe -5% to 10% gain from here in 2025 at such high PE ratio...If EPS goes down then that would be a big issue....Tariffs does cause cost to go up which might be passed to consumers/clients One thing for certain is any policy Tesla needs should get passed pretty quickly lol Economy itself should still do good This is why trump needs a 10% to 20% draw down in stocks so when he comes in and takes over the economy that's still going he can take easy credit ...this is where the story gets really tricky for him Edited Sunday at 01:53 AM by Junior R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted Sunday at 04:20 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:20 AM Word on the street is that while in 2017 there was a couple of years of honeymoon, between tax cuts and tariffs, no such luck this time around. it will come fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM 15 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Well. I asked perplexity with a few angles and it insists on rising energy prices. I don’t think it makes sense though: If China were blocked from purchasing crude oil or other energy products, global energy prices could still rise due to several factors. Firstly, China is a major consumer of energy, and a sudden drop in its demand could lead to market volatility and uncertainty. Additionally, the geopolitical tensions and potential military conflicts associated with such a blockade could disrupt global supply chains and increase transportation and insurance costs. Furthermore, other countries might increase their strategic reserves or alter trade routes, leading to temporary supply shortages and price spikes in the global market. Energy prices would rise in China, but would drop like a stone for everyone else, because the oil destined for China would have no where to go. I agree a short term spike is possible , but if you think about it China imports roughly 11M brl of crude per day which might go to zero. Total worldwide production is 82M brl, so that’s more than 13% of the oil production that has nowhere to go. Now China can still import some oil with a pipeline from Russia, but one cruise missile could take out a pipeline for good for a while. Spek, I am fairly certain total global crude production is around 100 mbpd not 82. Also your analysis assumes no demand destruction in case of unthinkable land invasion of Taiwan, given how critical it is to global supply chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted Sunday at 05:57 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:57 AM 4 hours ago, Spekulatius said: So how do we make money? The only thing I am convinced is that Trump creates more volatility. So keeping a stash of cash around for whatever opportunity arises seems like a good idea, especially considering current valuations. I think if MAGA works as expected (and I expect it will, at least to a some degree) just stay long US (perhaps even USD vs other currencies), and short or avoid basically everything else, which really means no major changes for me from the last 10+ years:)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted Sunday at 08:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 AM 7 hours ago, Spekulatius said: So how do we make money? The only thing I am convinced is that Trump creates more volatility. So keeping a stash of cash around for whatever opportunity arises seems like a good idea, especially considering current valuations. Fairly certain BTC is a sure thing now. Seems like the most obvious Trump trade to me. Another ATH btw today... So use BTC instead of cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73 Reds Posted Sunday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 PM 5 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Fairly certain BTC is a sure thing now. Seems like the most obvious Trump trade to me. Another ATH btw today... So use BTC instead of cash Who/what accepts BTC as payment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted Sunday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:30 PM (edited) the one thing people are also forgetting is the deflationary trade on stuff such as Auto, Real Estate, Energy ...He would try to push those prices down as those would be key factor to bring cost down for the average person... The real question is how does he achieve bringing down prices when he wants to tariff stuff lol If he does manage to bring prices of essentials down it would really be good for the average person...Even though company profits will go down in the short term Time will tell how this plays out Edited Sunday at 02:32 PM by Junior R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM 13 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Who/what accepts BTC as payment? Who/what accepts Berkshire/Fairfax shares as payment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM 38 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Who/what accepts BTC as payment? No need to buy Bitcoin, use an etf to stash cash and sell when you find something to buy. Unless you're here trying to question the whole BTC thesis? In that case this will take us too far off-topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73 Reds Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM 1 hour ago, Paarslaars said: No need to buy Bitcoin, use an etf to stash cash and sell when you find something to buy. Unless you're here trying to question the whole BTC thesis? In that case this will take us too far off-topic. Defeats the purpose if you have to sell it every time you want to pay for something, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM Another Trump trade is BGC. Unfortunately I sold it too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted Sunday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:04 PM 55 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Defeats the purpose if you have to sell it every time you want to pay for something, no? Not if used as a cash equivalent like people use bonds or gold today in portfolio's. You will be able to pay with it everywhere in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM (edited) 3 hours ago, james22 said: Who/what accepts Berkshire/Fairfax shares as payment? What’s weird to me about Bitcoin is that its value (or should I say price) increasing hinges solely on trying to get more people to use/buy Bitcoin. It’s no wonder that James feels he needs to post a pro Bitcoin message every few hours, extolling the virtues of Bitcoin. He needs people to buy Bitcoin! On the other hand, shares of BRK or FRFH are backed by incoming cash flows. So as a shareholder, yes I like an ever increasing share price (to a point), but I don’t really need to try to convince other people to buy either of them. If no one wants to buy them, fine, I’ll let them continue to hover up every last share until I am the 1 remaining shareholder. Then I get of the cash flows from there on out. Am I misunderstanding something? Edited Sunday at 06:30 PM by Buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM 13 minutes ago, Buckeye said: Am I misunderstanding something? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM 4 minutes ago, james22 said: Yes. Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Classic. I guess that reply is all you have time for, so you can get back to the nonstop posting on the crypto thread. Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM 27 minutes ago, Buckeye said: What’s weird to me about Bitcoin is that its value (or should I say price) increasing hinges solely on trying to get more people to use/buy Bitcoin. Doesn't that apply to any currency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye Posted Sunday at 07:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:08 PM (edited) 20 minutes ago, Paarslaars said: Doesn't that apply to any currency? I don’t know, does it? And if it does, you are saying Bitcoin is a currency? It doesn’t seem like China has much of an interest in letting their currency appreciate. Edited Sunday at 07:19 PM by Buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM 34 minutes ago, Buckeye said: Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thowed Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM (edited) I think there's some cross purposes here. I don't think @dealraker is arguing for keeping the borders open to Illegal immigrants. Neither am I. I think for all of us here, if you want to be an investor, believing in the rule of law goes hand in hand with that. I think he's saying that the inconvenient reality is that SOME illegal immigrants are working hard doing jobs (& not committing crimes) that some locals don't want to do any more because they've got comfortable and lazy. You see it all over the developed world. If you get rid of the hard-working illegals (along with the bad guys), and generally show a view of hostility to prospective legal immigrants, then there's going to be inflation, because to get people to do the crap jobs that only immigrants tend to do, the wages are going to have to go up a lot. So I don't think Charlie is on about the morality here (correct me if I'm wrong) - we all agree we want to get rid of the bad guys - but just the need to see that there are trade-offs here. This is all a bit off-topic anyway. Edited Sunday at 07:42 PM by thowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM 53 minutes ago, james22 said: Thanks for the meme James, you have definitely helped me better understand Bitcoin. I am gong to start buying some tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73 Reds Posted Sunday at 09:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:09 PM 9 minutes ago, dealraker said: Thanks thowed for a good clarification. It is always somewhat off topic to bring in comparisons or personal observations, yet to me at least incredibly relevant. My family for generations owned the land where this article references. And now I learn who actually built the railroad, not the story I'd read before. I'll not reference that in words via this post as it would not sell well here, but I do link the article. I am simply stating that I do have good feelings towards disciplined hard working people. And a good immigration system would likely be popular with most of the US. https://www.ourstate.com/andrewsgeyser/ Indeed, no one argues against good, hard working people and a good immigration system. But the issue is, should breaking the law - whether we agree with it or not - be rewarded or should there be consequences to those who break it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73 Reds Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM 3 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Not if used as a cash equivalent like people use bonds or gold today in portfolio's. You will be able to pay with it everywhere in time. Who uses bonds or gold as a cash equivalent? Cash equates to instant liquidity. If you want to argue that a MMF is a cash equivalent, I'd agree with that. But something whose alleged value is as volatile as BTC is not only NOT a cash equivalent, it is not even something that most folks would feel comfortable owning over the weekend. When you rely on current popularity to determine the future of something with entirely no backing, I'd take the other side of your bet that you will ever be able to pay with it everywhere. Very smart, experienced people like Buffett and Munger have repeatedly expressed their opinions of Bitcoin. I wouldn't argue with them. Nor would I be surprised if one day you wake up and BTC is next to worthless. Personally, since there are plenty of viable investments out there I don't give BTC much thought. If Crypto someday fulfills a need for me, maybe I'll consider it, but likely never as an investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dealraker Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM 6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Indeed, no one argues against good, hard working people and a good immigration system. But the issue is, should breaking the law - whether we agree with it or not - be rewarded or should there be consequences to those who break it? A convicted man is our President. Discussion depth here is one millimeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73 Reds Posted Sunday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:33 PM 3 minutes ago, dealraker said: A convicted man is our President. Discussion depth here is one millimeter. See, you evaded the issue. But if you want to change the issue to Trump, I have never been a fan of his but my educated (as a lawyer) guess is that each of the cases brought against him would have been overturned by more learned, higher courts. Lawfare, against any political opponent (whether I like him or not) has no place in our politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dealraker Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM 13 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: See, you evaded the issue. But if you want to change the issue to Trump, I have never been a fan of his but my educated (as a lawyer) guess is that each of the cases brought against him would have been overturned by more learned, higher courts. Lawfare, against any political opponent (whether I like him or not) has no place in our politics. No actually one half of a millimeter. Lawyer? How in the world does that even remotely relate to following laws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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