President-Elect Trump trades

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

A convicted man is our President.  

 

Discussion depth here is one millimeter.

 

 

Funny. Corrupt governments have a long history of political prosecutions and kangaroo courts.

 

Fortunately, this government is on the way out.

[james22]

3 hours ago, Buckeye said:

Thanks for the meme James, you have definitely helped me better understand Bitcoin. I am gong to start buying some tomorrow. 

 

Great, thanks.

 

Because convincing a couple suckers on this value investing board to buy is the only way this works out for me.

[james22]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

When you rely on current popularity to determine the future of something with entirely no backing ...

 

Bitcoin is backed by the strongest computer network in the world.

 

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Very smart, experienced people like Buffett and Munger have repeatedly expressed their opinions of Bitcoin.  I wouldn't argue with them. 

 

They've also admitted to not understanding technology and missing out on Amazon and Google.

 

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

A convicted man is our President.  

 

Show me the man ...

[Junior R]

13 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Bitcoin is backed by the strongest computer network in the world.

 

 

They've also admitted to not understanding technology and missing out on Amazon and Google.

 

 

Show me the man ...

The only one issue with Crypto is it doesn't produce any income vs fiat currency/stocks which trades based on underlying fundamentals ..but Crypto is something  people are willing to pay for so there is a market ...

 

Edited Monday at 12:33 AM by Junior R

[Buckeye]

55 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Great, thanks.

 

Because convincing a couple suckers on this value investing board to buy is the only way this works out for me.

Hahahaha. We all see your thousands and thousands of posts on the cryptocurrency thread. I was surprised you even had time

to reply to my original question. Thank you for all of your work. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Junior R said:

The only one issue with Crypto is it doesn't produce any income vs fiat currency/stocks which trades based on underlying fundamentals ..but Crypto is something  people are willing to pay for so there is a market ...

 

 

Gold doesn't produce income and has a multip trillion market cap and has been a store of value for generations. 

 

Currencies produce no income and have multi trillion market caps.

 

My relationships with family/friends provide no income, but have immeasurable value. 

 

We have to recognize that there are more ways to evaluate the world, and value, than forcing everything to fit a DCF model. 

Edited Monday at 02:45 AM by TwoCitiesCapital

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Gold doesn't produce income and has a multip trillion market cap and has been a store of value for generations. 

 

Currencies produce no income and have multi trillion market caps.

 

My relationships with family/friends provide no income, but have immeasurable value. 

 

We have to recognize that there are more ways to evaluate the world, and value, than forcing everything to fit a DCF model. 

So you are comparing your relationship to your friends and family to Bitcoin? 

My original point/question was…what causes Bitcoin to rise in price/value? Is it only getting more people to want it, buy it, store it? If so, Ok.  Then someone like you, who I presume owns Bitcoin, has a vested interest in getting as many people as possible interested in wanting it, buying it and storing it. 

 

With a stock like BRK or FRFH, you don’t need to try to encourage more people to buy it. Viking has been pounding the table on FRFH (very thankfully for me), but as a shareholder he has no vested interest in other people wanting it or buying it. He doesn’t care if nobody buys it, because FRFH surely will. 
 

That’s what’s weird to me. 

 

 

Edited Monday at 04:14 AM by Buckeye

[Paarslaars]

6 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Who uses bonds or gold as a cash equivalent?  Cash equates to instant liquidity.  If you want to argue that a MMF is a cash equivalent, I'd agree with that.  But something whose alleged value is as volatile as BTC is not only NOT a cash equivalent, it is not even something that most folks would feel comfortable owning over the weekend.  When you rely on current popularity to determine the future of something with entirely no backing, I'd take the other side of your bet that you will ever be able to pay with it everywhere.  Very smart, experienced people like Buffett and Munger have repeatedly expressed their opinions of Bitcoin.  I wouldn't argue with them.  Nor would I be surprised if one day you wake up and BTC is next to worthless.   Personally, since there are plenty of viable investments out there I don't give BTC much thought.  If Crypto someday fulfills a need for me, maybe I'll consider it, but likely never as an investment.   

Buffet and Munger are very smart and experienced in a world that only knows stocks, bonds and the USD. They missed everything in tech for the past 20 years except for a bit of Apple, because they admitted they don't understand it. The only other big tech investment was IBM and that turned out poorly.

 

These guys are good in businesses that they know and grew up with but they don't have a clue about how the world is changing.

 

But let's not go top far off-topic here, my claim is that the most obvious Trump trade at the moment is (leveraged) BTC, we'll see what happens, no need to believe me now.

Edited Monday at 04:21 AM by Paarslaars

[Buckeye]

32 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Buffet and Munger are very smart and experienced in a world that only knows stocks, bonds and the USD. They missed everything in tech for the past 20 years except for a bit of Apple, because they admitted they don't understand it. The only other big tech investment was IBM and that turned out poorly.

 

These guys are good in businesses that they know and grew up with but they don't have a clue about how the world is changing.

 

But let's not go top far off-topic here, my claim is that the most obvious Trump trade at the moment is (leveraged) BTC, we'll see what happens, no need to believe me now.

Aside from all of the mumbo-jumbo about how Mr. Buffet and Mr. Munger have no clue, do you understand that you (and anyone else on this forum who owns Bitcoin) have a vested interest in more people owning Bitcoin? Because getting more people to want and buy Bitcoin is the only way it increases in price/value, correct? It’s almost like you are a paid spokesperson for Bitcoin. 

Edited Monday at 04:53 AM by Buckeye

[Paarslaars]

I rarely talk to anyone about BTC, simply wanted to state here it is in my opinion the best Trump trade.

 

But yes Bitcoin adaption in society is in my best interest, also in that of society if you ask me.

 

By the way, the only way anything goes up is if more people want to buy it... BRK can crush it at earnings but the stock won't budge unless more people buy it. Sure the earnings make BRK more attractive to buy but I would argue that our current economical climate also makes BTC more attractive to buy. I am proof of that, I am a late mover myself, only started reading/learning about BTC end of '23. People are catching on to its virtues more and more.

[UK]

1 hour ago, Paarslaars said:

I rarely talk to anyone about BTC, simply wanted to state here it is in my opinion the best Trump trade.

 

But yes Bitcoin adaption in society is in my best interest, also in that of society if you ask me.

 

By the way, the only way anything goes up is if more people want to buy it... BRK can crush it at earnings but the stock won't budge unless more people buy it. Sure the earnings make BRK more attractive to buy but I would argue that our current economical climate also makes BTC more attractive to buy. I am proof of that, I am a late mover myself, only started reading/learning about BTC end of '23. People are catching on to its virtues more and more.

Are you buying it directly or through ETF and if yes, which?

[Paarslaars]

I hold BTC directly via an exchange (Bitvavo) and hold indirectly via MSTR and Metaplanet. All 3 combined are currently 40% of my portfolio (purchased at half of this value).

[Milu]

I think Bitcoin will be a great long term trump trade with large drawdowns in the short term. If trump does want to go the route of a strategic reserve it's in his interest to talk down bitcoin so that they can buy it on the cheap. The last thing he wants is for the price to keep shooting upwards before he gets his chance to back up the truck.

[james22]

5 hours ago, Buckeye said:

It’s almost like you are a paid spokesperson for Bitcoin. 

 

Not paid enough given the import.

 

Bitcoin catalysts:

 

1. COBF adoption

 

2. Nation-state adoption

3. Institutional adoption

[Milu]

20 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Not paid enough given the import.

 

Bitcoin catalysts:

 

1. COBF adoption

 

2. Nation-state adoption

3. Institutional adoption

COBF adoption could be the trickiest one. Charlie Munger and Buffett are two of the greatest humans and investors that have ever lived and about the most ethical and intelligent role models any of us could have, the only disservice they did to their legion of fans is the negativity they expressed towards bitcoin (rat-poison squared etc). Because they are seen as such oracles they possibly cost some of their fans to avoid allocating some of their savings towards bitcoin and missing out on some very large gains.

 

Despite his aversion to gold, Buffett has held the metal at least once in his career (possibly more) but I don't remember him expressing such distaste for that asset. He has indeed at times mentioned that he doesn't see gold as an 'investment' which is fair enough. I believe he has also owned land at some point (perhaps in his personal portfolio). Bitcoin is no different to Gold or Land, just a digital equivalent of property. Perhaps buffet/munger could have just said they didn't understand bitcoin which would have been a better approach, similar to how they would comment on most technology stocks. It can be hard for fans of buffett/munger to break out of some of the teachings of their heroes and take opposite positions but Charlie and Warren are human beings who can also be wrong at times.

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Not paid enough given the import.

 

Bitcoin catalysts:

 

1. COBF adoption

 

2. Nation-state adoption

3. Institutional adoption

Not sure if you are being sarcastic but your post is true.  My point is that your post and every other post extolling the virtues of Bitcoin should include the following message…
 

***This advertisement has been paid for by Bitcoin***

[Paarslaars]

9 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Not sure if you are being sarcastic but your post is true.  My point is that your post and every other post extolling the virtues of Bitcoin should include the following message…
 

***This advertisement has been paid for by Bitcoin***

That goes for every post in investment ideas when the poster is also a shareholder.

[Buckeye]

5 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

I rarely talk to anyone about BTC, simply wanted to state here it is in my opinion the best Trump trade.

 

But yes Bitcoin adaption in society is in my best interest, also in that of society if you ask me.

 

By the way, the only way anything goes up is if more people want to buy it... BRK can crush it at earnings but the stock won't budge unless more people buy it. Sure the earnings make BRK more attractive to buy but I would argue that our current economical climate also makes BTC more attractive to buy. I am proof of that, I am a late mover myself, only started reading/learning about BTC end of '23. People are catching on to its virtues more and more.

Hello Paar. Thank you for your reply. It sounds like you agree with my premise that the ONLY way Bitcoin increases in price/value is with increased adoption. 
 

And you also have been correct that this has been, and may continue to be, a Trump trade, so I will give you that. 
 

The last paragraph of your post is not completely accurate, IMO. Sure, one way for me, or any other BRK shareholder to make money on BRK is for them crush earnings, and then hopefully have the share price rise in value.  However, what you failed to recognize is that this is not the only way to make money with BRK. If I am holder of BRK and the price of the share does not increase , or even if it decreases, I and any other BRK can still make money. Because with a flat, or lower share price, at some point BRK will own all (or most of the remaining shares) and the cash flows that are still incoming will flow in greater quantities to the few of us remaining shareholders. Can’t say that with Bitcoin, can you? That is a big difference between the two is all that I am saying. 
 

This discussion reminds me of Buffet’s comment about buying what you would be ok owning if the market were to shut down for 10 years. Under that scenario, are you good with holding a large portion of your wealth in Bitcoin?  If so, any guesses what it would be worth after year 5?  Or year 10? I would be completely ok with holding BRK for 10 years even if it didn’t trade, or if I couldn’t trade it. 

Edited Monday at 11:38 AM by Buckeye

[Buckeye]

10 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

That goes for every post in investment ideas when the poster is also a shareholder.

This statement is not true. See my post above. 

[Buckeye]

The only reason I am belaboring this point about Bitcoin in this thread is that Crypto companies ran ads in many swing states attempting to get Donald Trump elected. But instead of these ads extolling the virtues of Bitcoin (because they know most voters probably don’t give a rats ass about Bitcoin) the ads stoked fear with scary messaging about illegals immigrants at the border coming to take over your town or how the left was gong to turn your little boy into a little girl. That’s weird/sad to me. So now we have Bitcoin to partly thank for Donald Trump’s 2nd term. 

Edited Monday at 11:49 AM by Buckeye

[Paarslaars]

8 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

The last paragraph of your post is not completely accurate, IMO. Sure, one way for me, or any other BRK shareholder to make money on BRK is for them crush earnings, and then hopefully have the share price rise in value.  However, what you failed to recognize is that this is not the only way to make money with BRK. If I am holder of BRK and the price of the share does not increase , or even if it decreases, I and any other BRK can still make money. Because with a flat, or lower share price, at some point BRK will own all (or most of the remaining shares) and the cash flows that are still incoming will flow in greater quantities to the few of us remaining shareholders. Can’t say that with Bitcoin, can you? That is a big difference between the two is all that I am saying. 

 

This discussion reminds me of Buffet’s comment about buying what you would be ok owning if the market were to shut down for 10 years. Under that scenario, are you good with holding a large portion of your wealth in Bitcoin?  If so, any guesses what it would be worth after year 5?  Or year 10? I would be completely ok with holding BRK for 10 years even if it didn’t trade, or if I couldn’t trade it. 

 

Well to your first point, you are using stock buybacks, which means you are replacing 'more people' in the BTC scenario with the company itself. Sure BTC cannot buyback itself but existing whales sure can accumulate further (as was the case for most of this year). In that way the analogy still fits...

 

To your second part, I am comfortable holding BTC for 10 years, though I would likely reduce my MSTR position as the volatility during the bear run would hit me mentally for a large position.

[Paarslaars]

4 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

The only reason I am belaboring this point about Bitcoin in this thread is that Crypto companies ran ads in many swing states attempting to get Donald Trump elected. But instead of these ads extolling the virtues of Bitcoin (because they know most voters probably don’t give a rats ass about Bitcoin) the ads stoked fear with scary messaging about illegals immigrants at the border coming to take over your town or how the left was gong to turn your little boy into a little girl. That’s weird/sad to me. So now we have Bitcoin to partly thank for Donald Trump’s 2nd term. 

Trump got elected because the democrats are catering so much to the far left that they lost the center. Simple as that...

[Sweet]

14 hours ago, dealraker said:

A convicted man is our President.  

 

Discussion depth here is one millimeter.

 

 

Convicted yes.  Was it an actual crime... debatable.  Could be overturned.

[Buckeye]

4 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Well to your first point, you are using stock buybacks, which means you are replacing 'more people' in the BTC scenario with the company itself. Sure BTC cannot buyback itself but existing whales sure can accumulate further (as was the case for most of this year). In that way the analogy still fits...

 

To your second part, I am comfortable holding BTC for 10 years, though I would likely reduce my MSTR position as the volatility during the bear run would hit me mentally for a large position.

In “Whales” you mean more people? More adoption? Don’t need more people with BRK. if you can’t see the difference then I can’t help you. And I probably shouldn’t try continue to try, because you have vested interest in BTC and I don’t. So you (or James) will be more likely to spend your time trying to get more people into BTC because that is the only way your Bitcoin position increases in price/value. 
 

Whereas I don’t care if anyone buys my BRK because I know BRK will take care of itself. Can’t say that about BTC.

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I often hear many worries that a huge portion of the stock market is owned through a few indexes. It does seem that BTC owners would not have the same concerns because a few wallets own the majority of coins. Like said above part of the bull case is these “whales” owning more. It’s definitely a movement around faith it seems.