IF the ETF approved, will you make Bitcoin a NEW position?

[james22]

And in both cases, the ETF makes what you hold yourself more valuable.

[Dave86ch]

23 hours ago, james22 said:

And in both cases, the ETF makes what you hold yourself more valuable.

 

Valuable, stable, and liquid.

 

Just a way to provide an exit option for the wealthy and tech-savvy.

A financial ark for which some countries will build harbors.

[SharperDingaan]

If you are are a young person, looking to build your retirement nest egg 35 years from now (age 70); it is extremely stupid NOT to have a significant weighting to an BTC-ETF. The only real question is how much of a weighting you should have, and whether it should be maintained at cost or market value; the lower your risk tolerance, and the shorter your investment horizon, the lower the weighting. At the institutional level; providing company sponsored pension plans, at a 2% weighting for now ... that will rise over time.

 

BTC is just a payment app that was created to demonstrate blockchain technology; if you think that blockchain technology is likely to materially change the world over the next 3-4 decades, it's hard to find a better vehicle than a regulated BTC-ETF. No need to predict who the winners/losers are; just a need to be in the game, and in a vehicle unlikely to sink. 35 years ago this might have been a Berkshire Hathaway share, and at a share price not much different to recent BTC prices.

 

Most people (Joe Sixpack) just want to 'buy and forget'. A BTC-ETF is a fraction of the price of a BTC, and designed for those with zero experience/expertise in crypto; as far as 'Joe' is concerned, the PM is actually a value add and relatively cheap. Over time, the more 'Joe's' that add 2-5% weightings in their portfolios, the higher the demand for BTC goes, and the higher the price. Momentum, halving, etc. just taking price higher still. The adoption curve. 

 

And as price goes higher ...  the more that FOMO kicks in; less than year ago BTC was at USD 32,000; today it's pushing USD 69,000. Not that long ago, we were being questioned for treating BTC as a portfolio 'cash equivalent' - as how could the value of a cash equivalent possibly rise by 50%+! Zero recognition that if you don't want a cash drag on your portfolio, some of that cash needs to be in BTC  

 

Back in the day cars not only replaced the horse and buggy, they replaced all the related infrastructure as well; at the time there was little idea as to how long this would take, similar disbelief prevailed, and then as now - few took up the opportunity. Same thing occurred when steam replaced sail, and wireless replaced landline. Inability to adapt to change.

 

All good, and more for me!

 

SD

 

 

     

[james22]

On 1/10/2024 at 2:08 PM, james22 said:

I'm unconvinced myself if it's an asset class, but I'll probably commit a couple percent to it anyway.

 

Aww, cute kid.

[Dave86ch]

12 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

If you are are a young person, looking to build your retirement nest egg 35 years from now (age 70); it is extremely stupid NOT to have a significant weighting to an BTC-ETF. The only real question is how much of a weighting you should have, and whether it should be maintained at cost or market value; the lower your risk tolerance, and the shorter your investment horizon, the lower the weighting. At the institutional level; providing company sponsored pension plans, at a 2% weighting for now ... that will rise over time.

 

BTC is just a payment app that was created to demonstrate blockchain technology; if you think that blockchain technology is likely to materially change the world over the next 3-4 decades, it's hard to find a better vehicle than a regulated BTC-ETF. No need to predict who the winners/losers are; just a need to be in the game, and in a vehicle unlikely to sink. 35 years ago this might have been a Berkshire Hathaway share, and at a share price not much different to recent BTC prices.

 

Most people (Joe Sixpack) just want to 'buy and forget'. A BTC-ETF is a fraction of the price of a BTC, and designed for those with zero experience/expertise in crypto; as far as 'Joe' is concerned, the PM is actually a value add and relatively cheap. Over time, the more 'Joe's' that add 2-5% weightings in their portfolios, the higher the demand for BTC goes, and the higher the price. Momentum, halving, etc. just taking price higher still. The adoption curve. 

 

And as price goes higher ...  the more that FOMO kicks in; less than year ago BTC was at USD 32,000; today it's pushing USD 69,000. Not that long ago, we were being questioned for treating BTC as a portfolio 'cash equivalent' - as how could the value of a cash equivalent possibly rise by 50%+! Zero recognition that if you don't want a cash drag on your portfolio, some of that cash needs to be in BTC  

 

Back in the day cars not only replaced the horse and buggy, they replaced all the related infrastructure as well; at the time there was little idea as to how long this would take, similar disbelief prevailed, and then as now - few took up the opportunity. Same thing occurred when steam replaced sail, and wireless replaced landline. Inability to adapt to change.

 

All good, and more for me!

 

SD

 

 

     

 

Timechain.

[Saluki]

The 2 bull cases for BTC going up are 1) the greater fool theory, and 2) some use case for BTC that is better than what we have now.  

 

For the greater fool theory, an ETF could help with that.  I lose/forget/misplace passwords all the time.  I was forced to make a new one for one of my accounts just last week.  If I had a personal wallet with a lot of money in it and it would be worthless if I forgot the password, that money is as good as gone.  If some fund company is doing the safekeeping of the asset, and they have people to take care of the custody aspect, and I could sue them if they lose my BTC, then this is an option that would make it more attractive to me.  But it's still a pass. 

 

People use Bitcoin, blockchain and cryptocurrency interchangeably, but they are not the same thing.  For the past 15 years the true believers have told us about bitcoin will change everything someday.  Here's a reality check.  Pull out your smart phone right now and go your apps.  After 15 years of thinking up killer use cases for bitcoin, find one app on your phone that relies on bitcoin to operate.  Can't find it?  So what is the killer use case? 

 

Pay for things in a store without fees?  Credit cards are free to the consumer (less than free if you include cashback etc) and they are quick. It takes a while to transfer small payments in bitcoin and the merchants don't want it.  So why use it?  Send money to a friend at no cost?  Venmo and Paypal already do that for me. Sure, if I was sending money overseas using Western Union, there might be costs involved, but for most of what people in the developing world do, it's not needed.  Anonymity?  There is a record of every person who ever sent you money and everyone who you ever sent it to, so if they arrest someone who gives up the names of everyone they did business with, it's the opposite of anonymous.  It's worse than cash.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

The 2 bull cases for BTC going up are 1) the greater fool theory, and 2) some use case for BTC that is better than what we have now.  

 

3) more people finding value and using it... as has been the case for the last ~15 years

 

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

 I lose/forget/misplace passwords all the time.  I was forced to make a new one for one of my accounts just last week.  If I had a personal wallet with a lot of money in it and it would be worthless if I forgot the password, that money is as good as gone. 

 

There are pros and cons to self custody. If you had a lot of money in a wallet and didn't take steps to safeguard this potential, it's on you and is a con. 

 

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

So what is the killer use case? 

 

Long term store of value

Online digital payments with immediate settlement

Censorship resistance

Cheaper payment processing than credit cards (when using L2 networks like CC networks are)

Ability to remit payments across borders w/ no unnecessary fees/taxes/intermediaries

 

I'm sure there are more.

 

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

Pay for things in a store without fees?  Credit cards are free to the consumer (less than free if you include cashback etc) and they are quick.

 

They are NOT free as all prices rise to reflect the cost to the business and

They are NOT quick for the receiver. Cash is by far the loser here as you pay the higher prices and get no reward for it. 

 

Everything the consumer sees is a papering over of the problems that the processors/businesses see on the back-end of the financial plumbing. 

 

Some things I don't like as a consumer? 

 

1) I don't like waiting 5-days at Schwab for the money to settle when I'm trying to do a IRA contribution/backdoor conversion. 

 

2) I don't like waiting 3-5 business days when moving cash between one financial institution and another. 

 

3) I don't like waiting 2 days for trades in my brokerage account to settle before the money can be withdrawn or redeployed into other securities with faster settlement. 

 

4) I don't like paying wire fees to ensure large payments need to get where they're going more quickly than the standard 3-5 days when I had to close on my mortgage. 

 

BTC transactions settle in 10 minutes for lower fees than a wire transfer and BTC/blockchain solve the above issues. 

 

And these are just the issues I see as a consumer. It doesn't consider the immense pain/resources/delays that actually occur within the financial plumbing that we expend untold resources/time navigating it. 

 

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

 

It takes a while to transfer small payments in bitcoin and the merchants don't want it. 

 

No, it doesn't. It takes 10 minutes for the payment to be finalized (as opposed to days/weeks with a credit card). 

 

Lightning Network does it in seconds. 

 

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

Send money to a friend at no cost?  Venmo and Paypal already do that for me. Sure, if I was sending money overseas using Western Union, there might be costs involved, but for most of what people in the developing world do, it's not needed.  Anonymity?  There is a record of every person who ever sent you money and everyone who you ever sent it to, so if they arrest someone who gives up the names of everyone they did business with, it's the opposite of anonymous.  It's worse than cash.  

 

Bitcoin doesn't SOLVE every problem.

 

But it's superior to cash/credit cards in the ways that matter (long term wealth preservation) with other solutions to make it more competitive in areas of less importance (buying a latte). 

 

 

[james22]

7 hours ago, Saluki said:

So what is the killer use case? 

 

Capital preservation.

 

 

[Dave86ch]

17 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

3) more people finding value and using it... as has been the case for the last ~15 years

 

 

There are pros and cons to self custody. If you had a lot of money in a wallet and didn't take steps to safeguard this potential, it's on you and is a con. 

 

 

Long term store of value

Online digital payments with immediate settlement

Censorship resistance

Cheaper payment processing than credit cards (when using L2 networks like CC networks are)

Ability to remit payments across borders w/ no unnecessary fees/taxes/intermediaries

 

I'm sure there are more.

 

 

They are NOT free as all prices rise to reflect the cost to the business and

They are NOT quick for the receiver. Cash is by far the loser here as you pay the higher prices and get no reward for it. 

 

Everything the consumer sees is a papering over of the problems that the processors/businesses see on the back-end of the financial plumbing. 

 

Some things I don't like as a consumer? 

 

1) I don't like waiting 5-days at Schwab for the money to settle when I'm trying to do a IRA contribution/backdoor conversion. 

 

2) I don't like waiting 3-5 business days when moving cash between one financial institution and another. 

 

3) I don't like waiting 2 days for trades in my brokerage account to settle before the money can be withdrawn or redeployed into other securities with faster settlement. 

 

4) I don't like paying wire fees to ensure large payments need to get where they're going more quickly than the standard 3-5 days when I had to close on my mortgage. 

 

BTC transactions settle in 10 minutes for lower fees than a wire transfer and BTC/blockchain solve the above issues. 

 

And these are just the issues I see as a consumer. It doesn't consider the immense pain/resources/delays that actually occur within the financial plumbing that we expend untold resources/time navigating it. 

 

 

No, it doesn't. It takes 10 minutes for the payment to be finalized (as opposed to days/weeks with a credit card). 

 

Lightning Network does it in seconds. 

 

 

Bitcoin doesn't SOLVE every problem.

 

But it's superior to cash/credit cards in the ways that matter (long term wealth preservation) with other solutions to make it more competitive in areas of less importance (buying a latte). 

 

 

 

Nostr implemented Zapping, which works really well.

I remember the first zap I received from Jack Dorsey as a memorable moment.

 

The fact is that Bitcoin is a base layer where there are already tons of use cases, but it takes time to gain adoption. It is a tool able to adapt, and people prefer to argue based on their biases instead of diving into the technology.

 

This creates opportunities for us.

 

Bitcoin is lollapalooza.

https://dscompounding.com/2023/04/24/compound-your-energy/

Edited March 12 by Dave86ch