SafetyinNumbers Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, Junior R said: Fairfax Financial automatic plan bought 8700 shares over $1549 during July...This wasn't included in the earnings... We should see them buy more at these prices Looks like a 1550 top for the whole month. It doesn’t look like the stock trading under that price during the month except on those days FFH was active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrifty3000 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... On 7/31/2024 at 8:05 AM, Hoodlum said: It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 20 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said: I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... That's fairfax india lol not fairfax financial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrifty3000 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 minutes ago, Junior R said: That's fairfax india lol not fairfax financial. I stand by it until someone posits a better explanation! Never forget, correlation is causation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 21 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said: I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... The “bad” reasons why FFH is down in no particular order: -IDBI deal -ZZZ deal - decline in the interest rate curve Please add yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 5 minutes ago, Junior R said: That's fairfax india lol not fairfax financial. It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Just now, SafetyinNumbers said: The “bad” reasons why FFH is down in no particular order: -IDBI deal -ZZZ deal - decline in the interest rate curve Please add yours! People using FFH as cash and selling to buy other undervalued stocks that got beaten up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b. Are you sure it's 6b? How is fairfax india even going come up with 5b lol Edited August 8 by Junior R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrifty3000 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 minute ago, SafetyinNumbers said: It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b. +1 Where might that $1b+ come from if they're using free cash to buy back stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 (edited) 2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: The “bad” reasons why FFH is down in no particular order: -IDBI deal -ZZZ deal - decline in the interest rate curve Please add yours! First two makes no sense to me and not even a news of the last week? But what do I know:). Third could be the real thing, as maybe also fears of the hurrucane season would, but other insurance stocks not going down as much (or at all). So this is either some noise, perhaps also low volume related or maybe there is a chance we could see a new "update" from MW, but why whould they not did this during silent period then? Maybe were busy deleting old tweets...It is tempting to buy some additional shares near BV:) Edited August 8 by UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, Thrifty3000 said: I stand by it until someone posits a better explanation! Never forget, correlation is causation! :))) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b. So another quarterly profit sized amount as with Sleep? And why should this be necessarily perceived as bad from the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-hot-oceans-hurricane-data/ This does not explain FFH vs other insurance stocks though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, Junior R said: Are you sure it's 6b? How is fairfax india even going come up with 5b lol Market cap is 6,000 crore or about $1B CDN...so 51% would be $510M. Add a premium and you are looking at max $750M CDN for 51%. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 9 minutes ago, Parsad said: Market cap is 6,000 crore or about $1B CDN...so 51% would be $510M. Add a premium and you are looking at max $750M CDN for 51%. Cheers! What?? Aren't we talking about IDBI bank here? Almost $12 Billion USD market cap? 51% would be $6 Billion USD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrifty3000 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 20 minutes ago, gfp said: What?? Aren't we talking about IDBI bank here? Almost $12 Billion USD market cap? 51% would be $6 Billion USD ^ feels like an important thing to nail down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mananainvesting Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 The price target from Morningstar makes 0 sense! Target price of $1180 CAD, which is $860 USD, below book value! What the heck! Looks like this analyst is in the "Management destroys value" camp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 9 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said: ^ feels like an important thing to nail down I feel like it's pretty well nailed down. Market capitalization is a super easy to figure 1 trillion INR. It's not 6000 crore, it's like 100,000 crore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 minutes ago, mananainvesting said: The price target from Morningstar makes 0 sense! Target price of $1180 CAD, which is $860 USD, below book value! What the heck! Looks like this analyst is in the "Management destroys value" camp! Is that Brett Horn? He's stuck in the past. "we believe disciplined underwriting is a more reliable path to long-term value creation...." - yeah buddy, we all do. You don't have to be good at your job when you have a job like his. Remember - companies miss analysts' figures not the other way around! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mananainvesting Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 46 minutes ago, Parsad said: Market cap is 6,000 crore or about $1B CDN...so 51% would be $510M. Add a premium and you are looking at max $750M CDN for 51%. Cheers! Marketcap is 1T rupees, which at 1 usd=84 rupees, roughly translates to $12B usd Marketcap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mananainvesting Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 minutes ago, gfp said: Is that Brett Horn? He's stuck in the past. "we believe disciplined underwriting is a more reliable path to long-term value creation...." - yeah buddy, we all do. You don't have to be good at your job when you have a job like his. Remember - companies miss analysts' figures not the other way around! Yup!, could be one of the reasons people are selling. But Morningstar has been bearish for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 58 minutes ago, gfp said: What?? Aren't we talking about IDBI bank here? Almost $12 Billion USD market cap? 51% would be $6 Billion USD Whoops...my bad! The article said CSB's market cap is 6000 crore...I mis-read that as IDBI's market cap. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 (edited) 8 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: The “bad” reasons why FFH is down in no particular order: -IDBI deal -ZZZ deal - decline in the interest rate curve Please add yours! Ok I’ll play 1. Weak Hands (i) Margin, WTF it goes down! (ii) changes in margin policy, bugger I got a call/email 2. Margin debt at 2.8% of GDP, I don’t have any margin but aware of #1 3. Price=value, great run, lock it in, October generally sucks, hurricanes etc 4. Rate cuts, hard market is done, earnings after 3 years or so will be permanently impaired 5. Hmmm, Berkshire sold half their Apple, cashed to the gills, cool, will rotate given their conservative positioning and taking into account 1-4. Share price alone (ignore divs on the returns chart) this might be an even race 6. Not aware of the IDBI possibility, WTF 7. Aware of IDBI, hoped they wouldn’t make the list, here we go again 8. They are going to buy a Canadian mattress company, again WTF Point #2 was a bit of a revelation for me with 3% being a true red flag. Very easy to beaver away and collect positions on margin at appropriate valuations but get the rug pulled. During deleveraging there is no safe haven, your fellow shareholder may be getting called, tax matching, or simply panicking. Valuation may well be secondary consideration or not even feature. In order to not get shaken out I took some measures to ensure it couldn’t happen. Selling Fairfax would cause some significant tax implications that are not warranted given price to IV. Not adverse to paying tax at some point but not when this is still a <70 cent dollar and my best idea. https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/4266/finra-investor-margin-debt-relative-to-gdp https://www.owenanalytics.com.au/margin-lending?t&utm_source=perplexity Edited August 8 by nwoodman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 8 hours ago, UK said: So another quarterly profit sized amount as with Sleep? And why should this be necessarily perceived as bad from the start? It shouldn’t but we have a lot of shareholders that would never buy an Indian Bank for heuristic reasons and that forces them to sell FFH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: It shouldn’t but we have a lot of shareholders that would never buy an Indian Bank for heuristic reasons and that forces them to sell FFH. I really have no idea, but if I had to vote for a one possible explanation, gun to my head, I would go with some kind of distressed / irregular selling because of this "global margin call", as Goldman called it:) Edited August 8 by UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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