Cryptocurrencies

[james22]

I've no idea what the top might be, or even if there'll be another cycle.

 

I'll trim when there are no catalysts upcoming or (more likely) because I've no reason to keep playing.

[backtothebeach]

Possible timing system for the sell decision by Jim (mungofitch):

https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=579967243

[Dave86ch]

I will probably hold it forever and leverage opportunities to earn interest on it.

 

 

[Cod Liver Oil]

When a bitcoin entrepreneur buys a $6 million banana and eats it. Not sure if this is peak something.

https://fortune.com/2024/11/21/justin-sun-tron-comedian-banana-artwork-sothebys-elon-musk-space/

Edited Friday at 02:10 PM by Cod Liver Oil

[SharperDingaan]

The 'tops' thing .....  It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere. London/Paris/New-York/Milan Grade-A real-estate!

 

No different to commodities; get your original investment back as soon you can, play with just the house money, and always keep the withdrawals in something useful/safe. The cycle reverses .... you still live.

 

SD

[wachtwoord]

4 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The 'tops' thing .....  It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere. London/Paris/New-York/Milan Grade-A real-estate!

 

No different to commodities; get your original investment back as soon you can, play with just the house money, and always keep the withdrawals in something useful/safe. The cycle reverses .... you still live.

 

SD

 

But Bitcoin is the "something useful/safe"

[TwoCitiesCapital]

6 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

The 'tops' thing .....  It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere. 

 

The history of Bitcoin thus far is those who've simply held, even through bear markets, have eventually outperformed basically every alternative. Sounds like Bitcoin holders are the house? 

 

5 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

But Bitcoin is the "something useful/safe"

 

You'd be hard pressed to find anything with a better 3-, 5-, or 10- year return profile or a better sharpe ratio. 

 

Seems pretty useful and safe to me as long as you have a sufficiently long time horizon....which is true of any "safe" stock as well. 

[SharperDingaan]

Agreed BTC is great, but to survive the adverse volatility we also need diversifying assets. Trading gains need to go into something else of value, with a low correlation to BTC. That something else could be everyday spending, but if you do well, you really need somewhere else to put it; that expensive house in the world's major cities. Critically, one either solves this .... or risks being the next drug junkie; most seem to fail at it.

 

Alternatively, one could just accept the volatility. Just keep in mind that that the $100K draw-down is a whole lot different to the $1M one; T-Bills are a great pillow, but the losses cannot be as easily ignored. They are also a lot easier to tolerate if you are looking out from your Greek island villa.

 

When commodity prices are rising everyone is a hero; not so much when there are the inevitable downdrafts.

 

SD

 

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by SharperDingaan

[james22]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Alternatively, one could just accept the volatility. Just keep in mind that that the $100K drawdown is a whole lot different to the $1M one . . .

 

Down $2.3M Thursday and only shrugged.

 

It does change you: the $1M drawdown becomes no different than $100K.

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

It does change you: the $1M drawdown becomes no different than $100K.

 

I was thinking more of "The Princess and the Pea". The true princess is not going to sleep well, no matter how thick her pillow and mattresses are with T-Bills

https://interestingliterature.com/2018/11/a-summary-and-analysis-of-the-princess-and-the-pea-fairy-tale/

 

SD

[backtothebeach]

5 hours ago, james22 said:

Down $2.3M Thursday and only shrugged.

 

It does change you: the $1M drawdown becomes no different than $100K.

 

Hope you have a couple of mil set aside just in case. I can't help but remember my brother, who, at age 22, managed to get some shares in an IPO in the dot.com era which 100x'ed. His investment went from 5000 to 500000 - life changing money, enough to buy a house. I told him various time on the way up to sell half and minimize regret, but he wouldn't. 24 years later with two kids and he still rents.

[james22]

4 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Hope you have a couple of mil set aside just in case. I can't help but remember my brother, who, at age 22, managed to get some shares in an IPO in the dot.com era which 100x'ed. His investment went from 5000 to 500000 - life changing money, enough to buy a house. I told him various time on the way up to sell half and minimize regret, but he wouldn't. 24 years later with two kids and he still rents.

 

Ouch. 

 

I'm good though. 

[james22]

On 11/22/2024 at 2:16 PM, SharperDingaan said:

The 'tops' thing .....  It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere.