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Have we entered a new era of structurally higher interest rates? Including Poll!


Have we entered a new era of structurally higher interest rates?  

44 members have voted

  1. 1. Where will Interest Rates in the US be in 5 years?

    • 0,8%
      1
    • 3.5%
      20
    • 4,5%
      16
    • 6%
      5
    • 10%
      2


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Posted (edited)

Thought it would be interesting to see what the consensus of the board is regarding interest rates. @Viking opened a great thread about it and i think its a very interesting topic to discuss. 

 

Edited by Luca
Posted
1 minute ago, gfp said:

Which interest rate are you asking about?  The Fed Funds target or the 10 year US Treasury or what?

Federal Funds Rate

Posted (edited)

The past decade was in response to GFC. Perhaps it was overdone, but that’s why it was like that. Going forward it’s just gonna be normal like pre GFC type environment. It’s just doesn’t seem normal to most people now because they’ve convinced themselves post GFC was normal and it wasn’t.

Edited by Gregmal
Posted

My guess is the Fed funds rate will average around 3.5-4% over the next 5 years. Of course two of the key variables will be inflation and economic growth. My guess is the Fed will have a hard time getting inflation to and keeping it at its 2% target. The future path of the economy is impossible to predict with and accuracy. As a result, i do not have a high degree of confidence in my forecasting ability looking 5 years out (my degree of confidence is actually quote low). And i am certainly not making any investment decisions today based on what i think the world will look like in 5 years time.

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