The Swedish Corporate Real Estate Crisis [2022 to ?]

[EgonKuhn]

43 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thanks, Egon,

 

Please also see CofB&F topic : The Swedish Corporate Real Estate Crisis [2022 to ?]

 

Swedish menu card [] :

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Now who are in control of their sch*iße, and who are running a semidead zombie business with big arm movements for borrowed money?

 

SBB has basically disingrated midair after I opened the topic mentioned above, others are chugging along as if almost nothing has happened, nose in the track, others more or less wounded and weak.

 

-It's a fascinating space. 

Changing gears to the right thread here. I guess "K-Fastigheter" is something else than "Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB", so "Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB" isn't there in this graphic?

 

The working hypothesis for all these Northern European and ultimately virtually all European REITs/REICs seems to be that Europe will never return to a growth trajectory again and that interest rate levels will therefore remain relatively low forever.

 

One can certainly take that view, but I would feel somewhat more at ease if they were reducing their debt levels much more aggressively. Yet I don't see that happening anywhere neither with Germany’s Vonovia for instance nor with the Swedish companies. Whatever additional rental income comes in is swallowed up by steadily rising interest expenses. Consequently they are essentially treading water when you look at FFO trends over the last few years.

 

Have you ever come across an example of a European RE play significantly deleveraging currently, moving toward a Debt/EBITDA ratio of for instance 5, like the major US multifamily REITs?

[John Hjorth]

Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

I appreciate the discussion here. 

 

30 minutes ago, EgonKuhn said:

... I guess "K-Fastigheter" is something else than "Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB", so "Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB" isn't there in this graphic? ...

 

Please see green box called 'Fam Paulsson', upper part of chart, with a line to box 'Backahill', with a line [11%] to a box called 'Wihlborgs'.  - Yeah, the whole chart appears quite confusing, until one starts trawling  through some of the companies, looking at them.

 

You can call my approach a 'jockey stock approach' - trying to assess and judge who are competent and not inept.

 

Backahill is an awesome private company, doing its thing  mostly under the radar. The Paulsson family members are far from inept, to me. [ Link, Link ]

 

50 minutes ago, EgonKuhn said:

... Have you ever come across an example of a European RE play significantly deleveraging currently, moving toward a Debt/EBITDA ratio of for instance 5, like the major US multifamily REITs?

 

No, Egon [ @EgonKuhn].

[EgonKuhn]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

You can call my approach a 'jockey stock approach' - trying to assess and judge who are competent and not inept.

I see. Of course I could stare at the endless rows of figures in TIKR for ages and still be none the wiser in the end

 

If I understand you correctly, your impression from three years ago has been confirmed, and you’ve stuck with the investment vehicles of Paulsson and Lundberg, or perhaps even added to your holdings from time to time?

 

Here in Germany my impression of REITs and REICs is that, while they somehow muddle through, they are ultimately treading water operationally. They are running, yet practically getting nowhere. Like a hamster on a wheel.