Jump to content

Decision theory- books and resources


rayfinkle
 Share

Recommended Posts

Daniel Kahneman, who many are familiar with. Pioneered the concept of System 1 and System 2, along with risk aversion bias, base rates, etc.

 

Gerd Gigerenzer, is quoted less in general media, but a really big academic in the world of heuristics and decision-making in wicked environments.

 

Gary Klein has done alot of qualitative research on naturalistic decision making by experts and intuition. He has also done work on guided learning via case scenarios. He also has a structured way of conducting pre-mortems in groups.

 

Phil Tetlock and his superforecasting book. (Fermi method, starting with base rates, adjusting priors, successful group forecasting)

 

Garrett Hardin's Filters against Folly is classic.

 

Shane Parrish has a whole collection of writing on decision making, utility of journaling, and has a course on decision making. 

 

Alot of focus by the above is on the cognitive aspects of decision-making. Less is focused on the affective side. I haven't found alot of good sources but Scarcity by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir is really good on understanding how environmental and social stresses can affect cognitive bandwidth. Robert Cialdini's Pre-suasion book is also great as well.

 

Hope this helps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

+1 to Shane Parrish and his "Knowledge Project" podcast, as well as his "The Great Mental Models" books.

 

A real classic, something I consider to be a class in "defense against the dark arts" for decision making, is "Influence, the Psychology of Persuasion" by Robert Cialdini.  

 

https://smile.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-New-Expanded/dp/0063138808

 

One more book I really enjoyed is "How We Decide" by Jonah Lehrer.  It apparently went out of print and is expensive now, but you can probably find it at libraries.  Each chapter started with a very memorable story to introduce the concept.

 

https://smile.amazon.com/How-We-Decide-Jonah-Lehrer/dp/0618620117

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/19/2022 at 9:17 AM, weighingmachine said:

"Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser" by Dan Levy

 

"Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable" by Richard Zeckhauser

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rzeckhauser/files/investing_in_unknown_and_unknowable.pdf

thanks for this paper. I read this a while ago but got more out of it second, third time around

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
On 9/19/2022 at 7:56 PM, nafregnum said:

+1 to Shane Parrish and his "Knowledge Project" podcast, as well as his "The Great Mental Models" books.

 

A real classic, something I consider to be a class in "defense against the dark arts" for decision making, is "Influence, the Psychology of Persuasion" by Robert Cialdini.  

 

https://smile.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-New-Expanded/dp/0063138808

 

One more book I really enjoyed is "How We Decide" by Jonah Lehrer.  It apparently went out of print and is expensive now, but you can probably find it at libraries.  Each chapter started with a very memorable story to introduce the concept.

 

https://smile.amazon.com/How-We-Decide-Jonah-Lehrer/dp/0618620117

 



Based on this suggestion, I searched Amazon France for "How We Decide". Picked up a pristine used hardback for $10, compared with $30 on the US site. Not sure about import taxes, but thought I'd mention it in case anyone is looking for one. Only two chapters in, but I like it so far. Good call! Thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Against the gods, plus one on taleb books and superforecasting and kahneman. Between all those you should be securely feeling insecure about whether your

presumed knowledge is actually belief. Or if maybe everything is. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...