Too Easy Pile

[scorpioncapital]

5 minutes ago, crs223 said:

I naively thought liberty media (in particular the Sirus XM "branch") would be mindlessly simple: it's a company that just owns stock in another company.  I thought I was going to see:

 

1. Assets: Shares of SIRI
2. Liabilities: Debt used to by SIRI
3. Revenue: dividends from SIRI and proceeds from SIRI sales
4. Expenses: cost to purchase SIRI shares

 

Then I would create a spreadsheet showing NAV.

 

Amusingly... I'm an hour into the 10K and I still don't know how many shares of SIRI are owned by Liberty Media.  Not even sure if the Liberty financials are "including" SIRI's financials.

 

It says right here - "We own approximately 81.2% of SiriusXM as of January 28, 2022, which operates two complementary audio entertainment businesses, SiriusXM and Pandora."

 

https://www.libertymedia.com/tracking-stocks/liberty-siriusxm-group

 

[crs223]

14 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

It says right here - "We own approximately 81.2% of SiriusXM as of January 28, 2022, which operates two complementary audio entertainment businesses, SiriusXM and Pandora."

 

https://www.libertymedia.com/tracking-stocks/liberty-siriusxm-group

 

 

Thank you.  From the 10K: "we owned approximately 81% of the outstanding equity interest in Sirius XM Holdings".  I just though it would be highlighted with flashing lights [exactly] how many shares they owned.

 

For example, after just a few minutes I knew how many acres of oranges Alico owns (both producing and fallow).  Not that LSXM should be doing what I expect...

[DooDiligence]

14 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

IMO, DPZ sells pizza restaurants to operators.

 

Yep, that makes it even easier.

 

I've watched my position go up for a 60ish% gain and now back down to just above cost.

I could care less & will add if it drops to $325 or less, for an extended hold.

Seems like it might be a good trading card for those so inclined.

 

 

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edit: lest we forget the supply chain portion of the business.

 

Flour + H2O + yeast = dough

 

 

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Sourced from March 2022 10K: 

Edited May 4, 2022 by DooDiligence

[coc]

There are some strange ones here OP so let me suggest a few having taught this subject a bit. Two I do agree with above are DPZ and GIL. Both comparatively easy and importantly for learning, you have familiarity with the product line. 
 

HSY and TR. Hersey and Tootsie Roll. Simple candy companies. 

 

FAST - Fastenal. Very easy to understand the business but moreover they explain it very well. 
 

COST - Costco. Again, a simple retailer. Low complexity and easy to wrap your head around how the stores work, what the strategy is, and why it works so well. 
 

CMG - Chipotle. Simple restaurant chain, owns all the stores, you can walk into one tomorrow and understand how it works and what the input costs are. Growth story is easy to understand. 
 

Hope this helps!

Edited May 13, 2022 by coc

[hasilp89]

On 5/4/2022 at 1:28 PM, DooDiligence said:

 

Yep, that makes it even easier.

 

I've watched my position go up for a 60ish% gain and now back down to just above cost.

I could care less & will add if it drops to $325 or less, for an extended hold.

Seems like it might be a good trading card for those so inclined.

 

 

---

 

edit: lest we forget the supply chain portion of the business.

 

Flour + H2O + yeast = dough

 

 

---

 

Sourced from March 2022 10K: 

I’m with you. Has been humbling to see the price come down so hard. At the same time there is nothing about the business that has changed for me. It’s still a wonderful business. I was pretty impressed at the level of focus from the new ceo and cfo in addressing industry headwinds. 

[crs223]

So I (OP) took a stab at calculating the PV of a REIT (STOR).

 

It seemed somewhat straight-forward... (probably means I am screwing it up).  I ignored debt (because I assumed it was wrapped up in the AFFO).  This won't work if there is something "exotic" going on (like balloon payments).  I projected forward CAGRs of share dilution, real estate asset values (minus depreciation), liabilities, AFFO, and dividends (as a fraction of AFFO).  Had to be careful since AFFO is CAGR-ing faster than revenue - which cannot continue indefinitely.  STOR guidance was for an even higher AFFO than my model could stomach, so I'm not sure what is going on there.

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, hasilp89 said:

I’m with you. Has been humbling to see the price come down so hard. At the same time there is nothing about the business that has changed for me. It’s still a wonderful business. I was pretty impressed at the level of focus from the new ceo and cfo in addressing industry headwinds. 

If nothing about a business changes and the price goes up by 60% in short order, it may be time to sell.

[hasilp89]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

If nothing about a business changes and the price goes up by 60% in short order, it may be time to sell.

While I was speaking to the downside, I understand your point on the upside as well.  

When I say nothing about the business changing I mean it’s long term business model, advantage over other qsr and value to franchisors & consumers. Not sss for the next quarter or interest rates in the next year. I understood the whole market was frothy so I didn’t sit and think I was 60% smarter when it was up and don’t think I’m 60% dumber now it’s down. It was humbling due to the speed it happened and seeing it on paper. 

I get it works for some but I can’t time selling at the peak, or trying to sell on the way up or the way down.
I like the business and assuming the fundamentals (as I define them) are important I want to own what I already do for the rest of my life. 
 

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by hasilp89

[SharperDingaan]

We're very old fashioned ...

Bootlegging is the way to go - cash business, the benefits are direct, and you can easily see how well you're doing; by looking up your bank balance.

Make it yourself, smuggle and resell, or just sell someone else's for a commission - the world is your oyster!

 

SD