Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

50 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Nukes are the only way to deter a threat from other (Putin’s) nukes. I do agree leadership is a huge problem. Germany is going to have snap elections in February 23 and who knows what his brings. Best outcome is that the CDU gains ground and get as mandate to do things differently. I am not terribly optimistic about this outcome.

 

These multiple party coalitions can’t get anything done, that’s for sure.

 

From : www.icanw.org :

 

[Pelagic]

Article by the WSJ that gets into the details of how Russia recruits and pays contract soldiers, as well as compensates their families. The war has been an economic boon for some of Russia's poorest regions it would seem, which is also why popular opposition to it from those regions is limited. And a seemingly effective means for the Russian state to transfer wealth from wealthy districts to poorer ones.

 

Quote

The payouts [death benefits] cost around 8% of state expenditures in the year to June 2024, expanding the budget deficit, according to an analysis by Re: Russia, a research group. The payouts have contributed to a high inflation rate plaguing Russia, leading the central bank to raise interest rates to near-record 21%. And more men going to the front is stoking a labor crunch, leaving employers short of welders, drivers and builders.

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-military-death-pay-6cfe936e

Archive version - https://archive.ph/wtrq3

[Spekulatius]

Well, the labor crunch is probably permanent because the mortality rate of these recruits is very high. 

[UK]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, the labor crunch is probably permanent because the mortality rate of these recruits is very high. 

 

Exactly, @Spekulatius,

 

Statista : Male and female population in Russia as of January 1, 2024, by age group :

 

 

There is really fired up in the stove for Mother Russia for the future. Please note the small vintages 0-4 [It looks like Russia has partly stopped reproducing the last few years.] Small vintages 20 - 24 and 25 - 29 likely also separately affected further by war casuilties. Mother Russia sits on a giant time bomb with pension liabilities, that gets gradually triggered, when the large vintages leave the labor market for retirement, and the small vintages shall pay for those large vintages' pension entitlements comming due.

 

Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock...., Boom!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

And the guy running the circus is more interested in getting more land instead of caring for the people living on the soil he already control.

 

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There will likely happen a collapse of societal structures in Russian hinterland to the East, whole villages and small towns will go defunct and cease to exist, and going on vacation in Tjernobyl in Ukraine will be marketet by LVMH to the Russian people as luxury.

 

I actually went to the town called Kysyl in Eastern Russian, - close to the border to China, I think -, the town mentioned in WSJ article posted by @Pelagic. [At warp speed - Google is my friend].

 

Wikipedia article about Kyzyl, looks fairly nice by the pics in the article. I landed in the crossing that Google Earth cursor indicated as the center of the town, and looked around - the Google Mobile has actually been in town!

 

Ohh-my! - Roads in the town aren't paved, cars run on gravel, tilted poles holding airborne power lines in one huge mess in the air, a couple of old Ladas, hedges and bushes haven't been cut for ages, small kids hanging out together at a street corner, a huge dirty concrete truck taking the corner nearby the kids, absolutely nothing maintained, absolutely everything looked like crap in all directions, except one building. - Welcome to Russia! 

 

I was paralyzed by it! I'll spare you for screenshots. I tried to look around about 5 other places, some places a bit better, the same depressing experience all places. I would go nuts living such a place. The mental downwards drag for the citizens living such a place must be huge.

 

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In stead some eye candy here : The lightning up of the Christmas tree at the central yard yesterday afternoon here in Odense - the city where the poet Hans Christian Andersen was born :

 

Edited 23 hours ago by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.

 

Yep, @UK,

 

Finally! - And likely meant as an appriate response to what happened all over the place in Ukraine last night.

[John Hjorth]

Here, I'm using both quoting and screen shots, to provide objectivity together with contextual fairness and accuracy to the posts up stream by @Xerxes and @UK, I'm commenting on here - I'm sorry for the late reply here :

 

On 11/11/2024 at 8:54 AM, UK said:

And then maybe even Russia itself joins the alliance:). Sorry for the sarcasm, I am afraid that in this case or whatever the actual deal means, chances are going up as we speak I will have to start reading this 'living abroad' thread all over:)

 

You guys are very good at thinking out, likely [I hope] low probality, thought provoking outcome elements of the total outcome space in this mess, thank you for sharing!

 

@UK, If you should reply in a heartbeat here, from the top of your head and your immediate thoughts, where would you go?, if you felt compelled to act immedially? Wagons West [to the other side of the Atlantic Pond, Joe Land perhaps?], south bound in Europe, or something totally different?

[UK]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Here, I'm using both quoting and screen shots, to provide objectivity together with contextual fairness and accuracy to the posts up stream by @Xerxes and @UK, I'm commenting on here - I'm sorry for the late reply here :

 

 

You guys are very good at thinking out, likely [I hope] low probality, thought provoking outcome elements of the total outcome space in this mess, thank you for sharing!

 

@UK, If you should reply in a heartbeat here, from the top of your head and your immediate thoughts, where would you go?, if you felt compelled to act immedially? Wagons West [to the other side of the Atlantic Pond, Joe Land perhaps?], south bound in Europe, or something totally different?

 

Now I remembered reading this book: https://www.amazon.com/Year-Living-Danishly-Uncovering-Happiest/dp/1785780239

 

In short I think US would be too complicated for us, especially if this was to stay long term thing, so yes, you are absolutely right, given the circumstances, anywhere south bound in Europe, perhaps even as south as Canary Islands (Spain), especially if it is in winter:). But basically all EU countries south/west of Poland would be fine with us. A few even have a zero capital gain tax:). On the other hand my second half works for a German company, or we have other connections there or there...so lots of good options in EU I think. The really scary question though, in any very serious case there would probably be some scenarious where you could not actually leave so easily. E.g. just google Suwalki Gap and if the sky is also closed, which I think is safe to asume would be the case, well then nobody is about to leave anywhere, perhaps at least without taking big risks.

 

Edited 15 hours ago by UK

[Xerxes]

8 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.

just like the China tariff that Trump put, everybody moaned and complained, and then Biden just kept …
 

These new “loosened” restrictions by Biden will be kept by Trump, as part of him driving up his negotiating position with Kremlin. Need to go hard before going for a talk. 
 

And better that it is done by Biden than Trump, leaving the latter in position of leverage. It is all part of Art of the Deal. 
 

Who knew how impactful that book would be 

[Spekulatius]

RIP, couldn’t keep the balance I guess:

https://x.com/billbrowder/status/1858411231180124324?s=61&t=E8YgOMPn5yLNAJ40xrQKFQ

[John Hjorth]

53 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

RIP, couldn’t keep the balance I guess:

https://x.com/billbrowder/status/1858411231180124324?s=61&t=E8YgOMPn5yLNAJ40xrQKFQ

 

Pretty striking, how clumsy some Russians have become as of lately. 

[John Hjorth]

18 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.

 

And likely somebody have now asked 'daddy' for permission to follow suit  :

 

RBC-Ukraine [November 17^th 2024]: France and Britain greenlight Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles against Russia: Le Figaro.