Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

NRK.no [The Norwegian Official TV Channel] : Troms and Finmark [September 28^th 2024] : The government considers a high border fence against Russia.

 

Subheader : 'Hardly anyone crosses the Norwegian-Russian border illegally, but now a high fence can still be erected. Must act as a deterrent', according to the Minister of Justice.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Norway share a 1,340 km long border with Russia, up north of the polar circle. I'm not this sure this is well spent oil money. To me, it fails completely to hit the disc. A token of the times, - a considered action that is somewhat useless, not based on rationality, but sentiment.

[John Hjorth]

TV2.dk [August 8^th 2024] : Russia threatens Denmark with legal action.

 

This is related to the North Stream sabotage, and about the obligations of the Danish State to compliance and transparency requirements in  accordance with international conventions.

 

1997 - convention related to suppression of terror bombings, and

1999 - convention related to suppression of terror financing.

 

I would say, that Maria Zakharova, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has a good, solid case here.

 

Typical pragmatism from Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen just to put a 'confidential' on the existing report already produced about this event, simply put, to burry it.

 

I would not complain by any mean Denmark loosing such case, honestly.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

TASS - Politics [March 20^th 2024] : Nord Stream gas leak investigation - Russia to continue demanding transparent probe into Nord Stream blast — Foreign Ministry

Edited September 29 by John Hjorth

[UK]

6 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

TV2.dk [August 8^th 2024] : Russia threatens Denmark with legal action.

 

This is related to the North Stream sabotage, and about the obligations of the Danish State to compliance and transparency requirements in  accordance with international conventions.

 

1997 - convention related to suppression of terror bombings, and

1999 - convention related to suppression of terror financing.

 

I would say, that Maria Zakharova, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has a good, solid case here.

 

Typical pragmatism from Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen just to put a 'confidential' on the existing report already produced about this event, simply put, to burry it.

 

I would not complain by any mean Denmark loosing such case, honestly.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

TASS - Politics [March 20^th 2024] : Nord Stream gas leak investigation - Russia to continue demanding transparent probe into Nord Stream blast — Foreign Ministry

 

Just shut down them out of these waters then: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/16/russia-oil-tankers-shadow-fleet-international-law-denmark-unclos/

 

Just kidding:), we have even worse situation (could well be a flashpoint) with their transit I think.

[UK]

 

[UK]

Elon Musk

The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly.

Lex Fridman
(00:28:07) In the full menu of POWs in the US.
Elon Musk
(00:28:08) Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

 

Edited September 30 by UK

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, UK said:

Elon Musk

The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly.

Lex Fridman
(00:28:07) In the full menu of POWs in the US.
Elon Musk
(00:28:08) Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

 

 

It's a good one, @UK!,

 

It makes me recall the below from Danish history :

 

Det Danske Kongelige Bibliotek [The Danish Royal Library]  : The final liberation of of Bornholm.

 

Also : Wikipedia : Landing at Bornholm.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

My late Dad was originally a native of Bornholm [called a Bornholmer, caracterized by their very special  and unmistakable dialect, as it has more similarity to Swedish langauge than Danish language]. In the years 2012 - 2016 I had long conversations with him, where I interviewed him about all in his life that I haven't been a part of or experienced.

 

Several times I approached this event and his recollection of it, which he by every time simply refused to talk about and  turned his face away from me, staying totally silent, while I was aware that he by then was living as young man at the middle of the island, not on the coast, and not in Rønne, nor Nexø.

 

That was for sure food for thought.

Edited September 30 by John Hjorth

[UK]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

It's a good one, @UK!,

 

It makes me recall the below from Danish history :

 

Det Danske Kongelige Bibliotek [The Danish Royal Library]  : The final liberation of of Bornholm.

 

Also : Wikipedia : Landing at Bornholm.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

My late Dad was originally a native of Bornholm [called a Bornholmer, caracterized by their very special  and unmistakable dialect, as it has more similarity to Swedish langauge than Danish language]. In the years 2012 - 2016 I had long conversations with him, where I interviewed him about all in his life that I haven't been a part of or experienced.

 

Several times I approached this event and his recollection of it, which he by every time simply refused to talk about and  turned his face away from me, staying totally silent, while I was aware that he by then was living as young man at the middle of the island, not on the coast, and not in Rønne, nor Nexø.

 

That was for sure food for thought.

 

Thanks for sharing John. 

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/2bb20587-9680-40f0-ac2d-5e7312486c75

 

Multiple European diplomats who attended last week’s UN General Assembly in New York say there was a tangible shift in the tone and content of discussions around a potential settlement. They note more openness from Ukrainian officials to discuss the potential for agreeing a ceasefire even while Russian troops remain on their territory, and more frank discussions among western officials about the urgency for a deal.

...

Ukrainian public opinion also appears to be more open to peace talks — but not necessarily to the concessions they may require. Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the National Democratic Institute in the summer showed that 57 per cent of respondents thought Ukraine should engage in peace negotiations with Russia, up from 33 per cent a year earlier.

...

If Ukrainians have warmed to the idea of negotiations, a majority — 55 per cent according to a KIIS polling in May — remain opposed to any formal cession of territory as part of a peace deal. “People want peace but they are also against territorial concessions. It is hard to reconcile them,” says Merezhko, the chair of the foreign affairs committee. However, the KIIS survey shows the share of respondents opposed to any territorial concessions has dropped sharply from a peak of 87 per cent early last year. It also found that Ukrainians might be open to a compromise whereby, in return for Ukrainian membership of Nato, Russian maintains de facto control over occupied parts of Ukraine, but not recognised sovereignty.

...

As the KIIS polling shows, making any deal acceptable that allows Russia to stay in the parts of Ukraine it has seized since its first invasion in 2014 will hinge on obtaining meaningful western security guarantees, which for Kyiv means Nato membership. “The most important thing for us is security guarantees. Proper ones. Otherwise it won’t end the war; it will just trigger another one,” says a Ukrainian official. “Land for [Nato] membership is the only game in town, everyone knows it,” says one senior western official. “Nobody will say it out loud . . . but it’s the only strategy on the table.”

 

[John Hjorth]

Thanks for pointing to this, for information, @UK,

 

The media coverage of this has here been very poor,  under all criticism.

 

It's important. I have and nurse my personal biases on what the solution to this conclict should be, while the truth is, that the involved people in this conflict should decide for them selves where to belong for the future, to stop the hooman madness - the meaningless losses of so many lives of primarily young Ukrainian and Russian people.

Edited October 1 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

I think the west can get a Ukraine to agree with territorial concessions in exchange for NATO membership and a shot to get in the EU.

The problem will be if that works for Russia as well, because their fear of NATO expansion was supposedly what led to them attacking Ukraine.

 

I think the likely scenario is a ceasefire rather than a peace deal. Russia may think they can prevent NATO membership just be keeping a low level conflict alive indefinitely , which they sort of have done since 2014.

 

At some point, the west needs to make some gutsy decision to get solve this problem.

Edited October 1 by Spekulatius

[UK]

On 9/30/2024 at 6:40 AM, UK said:

Elon Musk

The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly.

Lex Fridman
(00:28:07) In the full menu of POWs in the US.
Elon Musk
(00:28:08) Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

 

 

And the sad confirmation: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-investigating-alleged-shooting-16-pows-by-russia-2024-10-01/

[John Hjorth]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the west can get a Ukraine to agree with territorial concessions in exchange for NATO membership and a shot to get in the EU.

The problem will be if that works for Russia as well, because their fear of NATO expansion was supposedly what led to them attacking Ukraine.

 

I think the likely scenario is a ceasefire rather than a peace deal. Russia may think they can prevent NATO membership just be keeping a low level conflict alive indefinitely , which they sort of have done since 2014.

 

At some point, the west needs to make some gutsy decision to get solve this problem.

 

I personally think this is an accurate description of the actual situation.

 

Frustrating to think about.

 

Then add to that, Vladimir Putin can't be relied on or trusted in any way or in any matter, this signature on something meaning sh!t - nothing :

 

.

[cubsfan]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the west can get a Ukraine to agree with territorial concessions in exchange for NATO membership and a shot to get in the EU.

The problem will be if that works for Russia as well, because their fear of NATO expansion was supposedly what led to them attacking Ukraine.

 

I think the likely scenario is a ceasefire rather than a peace deal. Russia may think they can prevent NATO membership just be keeping a low level conflict alive indefinitely , which they sort of have done since 2014.

 

At some point, the west needs to make some gutsy decision to get solve this problem.

 

I think Putin is going to have to go back to Russians and tell them this was about stopping NATO.

He's holding most of the cards now. He will get to keep Crimea & Donbas, and no NATO membership for Ukraine. That will be a big win for him to get out of this mess sacrificing so many Russians.

 

Meanwhile, Zelensky will get to say he valiantly and bravely saved Ukraine. And get armed to the teeth by the West to reinforce his DMZ.

 

The Russians can outlast everyone unfortunately.

[John Hjorth]

4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

... He will get to keep Crimea & Donbas, and no NATO membership for Ukraine. ...

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

The people of Crimea &  Donbas aren't live stock, available for trade, or available as leverage.

 

Please think about what the United States of America has in its backpack in that regard.

 

[And now I'll stop with this argument.]

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

The people of Crimea &  Donbas aren't live stock, available for trade, or available as leverage.

 

Please think about what the United States of America has in its backpack in that regard.

 

[And now I'll stop with this argument.]

 

@John Hjorth  No problem John. I just think this is how it's going to end. Crimea is full of Russian speakers and provides a seaport for Putin. Somehow, Ukraine needs to rip all that away from Russia, which I don't believe is possible. Do both countries have the appetite to see another 1M in casualties??

 

I think that is going to be the key question both combatants need to ask each other.

 

I will be very happy to be wrong.

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

@John Hjorth  No problem John. I just think this is how it's going to end. Crimea is full of Russian speakers and provides a seaport for Putin. Somehow, Ukraine needs to rip all that away from Russia, which I don't believe is possible. Do both countries have the appetite to see another 1M in casualties??

 

I think that is going to be the key question both combatants need to ask each other.

 

I will be very happy to be wrong.

 

I'm with you on that, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

The only thing [let's call it a 'tool'] I may have handy in this regard is my personal vote going forward in the Danish society, when I get asked about something. Time will tell when the time eventually is up for some decisions. In that respect better not to expect anything than to end up disappointed.

[changegonnacome]

Some debate obviously on the causes or reasons for the initial 2022 invasion.....I've got my theories (NATO/US 'puppetism'), others have theirs (the Catherine the Great theory)....but the competing theories can't be more different in a way.......an imperialist & a national security NATO 'red line-ist' are two very different beasts to deal with in a 'peace' negotiation.

 

An imperialist who encountered way more resistance than they ever expected so was under prepared to achieve their military aims.....takes a win with a small 'w' (Donbas/Crimea), concedes on NATO, takes some marginal incremental territory and goes home to rebuild their military forces to try again later.....a (temporary) peace deal should be 'easy' to do with an imperialist .......a country/leader driven by genuine existential national security concerns rooted in NATO/US encroachment....will not fold on a red line issues like NATO membership.

 

As we enter the end game here - we are going to get our answer......the 'tell' so to speak, IMO, has already come from Zelensky right at the beginning of this conflict in March 2022 in his most early kite flying for a negotiated settlement (see below BBC link)....we in the West might be confused about Putin's invasion motivations given our information is filtered through our own version of (un)controlled private media (that nevertheless manufacturers consent to borrow a Chomskyism).

 

Zelensky has a clearer eyed view than anyone on the causes and the solutions to Ukraine's woes....and HIS solution to this war, offering permanent Ukrainian neutrality, speaks more clearly to the origins of this situation than a million WH briefings, NY Times and CNN pieces.

 

28 March 2022 - "Zelensky says Ukraine prepared to discuss neutrality in peace talks"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60901024

Edited October 4 by changegonnacome

[John Hjorth]

I stumbled on this piece today, -not really 'new' news, as per the release date :

 

Atlantic Counsel - UkraineAlert [ October 3^rd 2024] : Ukraine is slowly but steadily weakening Russia’s grip on Crimea.

 

- - - o 0 o - - 

 

In a way there is basically some logic to it by all means and measures, because the front lines are so long and vast, because of of geografical size of both countries in conclict.

 

So, in a way, it also works both ways.

 

Anyone here on CoBF noted, that we hear nothing about the Russian South Fleet and it doings any longer, - now for months? 

[Spekulatius]

Probably one of the best summaries (in German) and one of the most depressing ones about the war situation from the Austrian Markus Reisner, who has done excellent commentary before. This is a more a big picture overview.

 

[Spekulatius]

This is another good one from an analyst - the danish analyst Anders Lick Nielsen:

He has been much more right about Ukraine than wrong, unlike Mearsheimer who predicted that there would not be an invasion just a few days before it happened.

[UK]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This is another good one from an analyst - the danish analyst Anders Lick Nielsen:

He has been much more right about Ukraine than wrong, unlike Mearsheimer who predicted that there would not be an invasion just a few days before it happened.

Good. Is his take on China/Taiwan available?

[backtothebeach]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This is another good one from an analyst - the danish analyst Anders Lick Nielsen:

He has been much more right about Ukraine than wrong, unlike Mearsheimer who predicted that there would not be an invasion just a few days before it happened.

 

That could have been a 5 minute video, geeez. A good point about Mersheimer shifting goal posts, and then 15 minutes of rambling.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

30 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

That could have been a 5 minute video, geeez. A good point about Mersheimer shifting goal posts, and then 15 minutes of rambling.

 

Now that was  funny!  

 

Exactly the same happened to me late last night, I was simply too tired, and had to stop trying to  listen to the whole thing after a few minutes. I'll elaborate a bit for all about Anders Puck Nielsen after having listening to the whole again today.

Edited October 7 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

40 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Now that was  funny!  

 

Exactly the same happened to me late last night, I was simply too tired, and had to stop trying to  listen to the whole thing after a few minutes. I'll elaborate a bit for all about Anders Puck Nielsen after having listening to the whole again today.

Anders makes some other points about Putin making lousy decisions when some in the west believe he is a strategic mastermind.

 

Mearsheimer is one of those structural dogmatic historians who see all the events in a very narrow lens. He is making some bold productions about the Israel conflict now that I don’t think will age that well either.

 

In the end, it’s just people who make decisions and unless you know how these people think, it’s impossible to predict what they do.

Edited October 7 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

In the end, it’s just people who make decisions and unless you know how these people think, it’s impossible to predict what they do.

 

I think this is a fair assessment - monkeys inside the machine do unpredictable things.......what I would say in Mearsheimar's defense and in the defense of realist theory broadly in international security studies......is that it (realism) has the highest base rate of any of the competing theories in attempting to predict the future of state level conflicts.......that's not to say it is highly predictive but rather to say that amongst all the frameworks one could use to approach this dastardly problem of prediction it is the best.