Political Posts

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

FWIW, I think any upcoming signed deal is mostly a stop-gap.  Certainly worth the cost and effort but subject to breach at any time and return to where we are now.  Deals with liars and cheaters don't last.  Doesn't appear that we have inflicted enough damage for change of leadership in Iran.  

 

100%.  I expect hell to rain down on them from the US and Israel when they break the MOU.  Iran can't be trusted one iota. Unlike Biden/Obama who trusted Iran and gave away the store to terrorists.

 

Once they break the deal - how long will it take to inflict more damage to Iran?   about 24 hours - just like when Israel/USA took out their Ayatollah and key IRGC thugs.  

 

Iran has been set back tremendously regardless of what the CoBF cheerleading section says.

[ourkid8]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

FWIW, I think any upcoming signed deal is mostly a stop-gap.  Certainly worth the cost and effort but subject to breach at any time and return to where we are now.  Deals with liars and cheaters don't last.  Doesn't appear that we have inflicted enough damage for change of leadership in Iran.  

Liars and cheats don’t last? Inflicted enough damage? Remember Israelis begged for US help for Iran to stop attacking them.  Also remember what Trump said, “everyone hates Israel.”

 

Former Israeli PM confirmed, Iran maintained the agreement (start at 1:40 mark).  

 

https://x.com/NEWSMAX/status/2065882550233391512/video/1?s=46

Edited 1 hour ago by ourkid8

[Libs]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

I think there will be a large effort to pivot away from that choke point by major producers in the area.

 

It's already happening. Iran's leverage will not last forever-

 

Gemini:

 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have aggressively rerouted and expedited alternative pipeline exports to bypass the restricted Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has maxed out its East-West Pipeline to redirect millions of barrels daily to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, while the UAE is utilizing and accelerating pipelines to the Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah. [1, 2]

Details on how the countries are currently shipping their oil include:

• Saudi Arabia: Rerouted its East-West pipeline to run at full capacity (roughly 7 million barrels a day), shipping crude and aviation fuel out of the Red Sea directly to Europe and the West. [1, 2]
• The United Arab Emirates: Increased usage of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) to send crude to Fujairah for export, completely outside the Persian Gulf. Abu Dhabi is fast-tracking a second major pipeline to double this bypass capacity by 2027. [1, 2]
• Ship-to-Ship (STS) Transfers: State firms like ADNOC and Aramco have utilized transshipment hubs, moving some tankers through or just outside the strait in the dark trade to offload to other vessels. [1, 2, 3]
• Oman Storage: The UAE has moved and stored crude at alternative facilities like Ras Markaz in Oman, allowing buyers to load oil without traversing the traditional Hormuz route. [1]

Despite these workarounds, the global energy map is permanently shifting, as Gulf states increasingly view avoiding the Strait of Hormuz as a permanent necessity for energy security rather than a temporary fix. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Libs

[cubsfan]

IRGC unleashed their pit bull, Hezbollah, onto Israel. Israel clobbering Beirut. Iran says they will now attack Israel. 

 

More pain ahead for Iran.

 

So much for MOU signing today!

[73 Reds]

36 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

100%.  I expect hell to rain down on them from the US and Israel when they break the MOU.  Iran can't be trusted one iota. Unlike Biden/Obama who trusted Iran and gave away the store to terrorists.

 

Once they break the deal - how long will it take to inflict more damage to Iran?   about 24 hours - just like when Israel/USA took out their Ayatollah and key IRGC thugs.  

 

Iran has been set back tremendously regardless of what the CoBF cheerleading section says.

The issue is not so much now but more so after Trump has either left office or lost power.   Skeptical (at best) that any successors will have the same gumption since none of his predecessors did.  My guess is Israel will once again have to go it alone or with passive assistance from the US.   Iran not only lies and cheats but they are sincerely stupid.  Just ask Egypt and Jordan whose agreements with Israel have lived on for decades after an entire history of war.  You just can't change stupid unless you remove and destroy them. 

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

The issue is not so much now but more so after Trump has either left office or lost power.   Skeptical (at best) that any successors will have the same gumption since none of his predecessors did.  My guess is Israel will once again have to go it alone or with passive assistance from the US.   Iran not only lies and cheats but they are sincerely stupid.  Just ask Egypt and Jordan whose agreements with Israel have lived on for decades after an entire history of war.  You just can't change stupid unless you remove and destroy them. 

 

If you get JD Vance or Rubio in as POTUS, I really think Israel is in great shape.  The way Trump/Bibi have conducted this campaign is masterful. We all know the limitations on the USA is "loss of American life".   Much, much different than Israel, which is in a fight for its very survival.  That's where the 2 countries diverge, but Israel is no doubt our greatest ally after the disgraceful Europeans.

 

Economic strangulation is easy enough for the USA. Bombing makes things more painful- but a year or so of a US blockade, whether intermittent or not is going to inflict maximum damage on Iran.

 

Of course, my humble opinion.

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

If you get JD Vance or Rubio in as POTUS, I really think Israel is in great shape.  The way Trump/Bibi have conducted this campaign is masterful. We all know the limitations on the USA is "loss of American life".   Much, much different than Israel, which is in a fight for its very survival.  That's where the 2 countries diverge, but Israel is no doubt our greatest ally after the disgraceful Europeans.

 

Economic strangulation is easy enough for the USA. Bombing makes things more painful- but a year or so of a US blockade, whether intermittent or not is going to inflict maximum damage on Iran.

 

Of course, my humble opinion.

Maybe, but I think it took a non-politician like Trump to even attempt to pull this off and he still gets bogged down in politics.    Trump's further advantage is no one can predict what he will do tomorrow and the next day, which frustrates everyone but his ardent supporters in this endeavor.  The problem with economic strangulation is it doesn't appear to work.  Liars and cheats know how to steal money when they need it and the IRGC only cares about itself, not the population at large so they don't need as much money as one might think.  Applying a "Western mentality" to solving the Iran problem has long been a failing approach.  We have to deal with them on their level - force and destruction, nothing less.

[cubsfan]

^^ Good enough.

 

All I can say is that after the Berlin Wall fell, it took 2 years for the Soviet regime to fall.  So economic escalation with the Soviets did the trick. Bessent is conducting a masterful plan.

And yes, domestic party politics seriously limit what Trump can do.

[73 Reds]

25 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^ Good enough.

 

All I can say is that after the Berlin Wall fell, it took 2 years for the Soviet regime to fall.  So economic escalation with the Soviets did the trick. Bessent is conducting a masterful plan.

And yes, domestic party politics seriously limit what Trump can do.

The difficulty with deals can be neatly summed up in what has taken place this morning.  Hezbollah resumed its attacks on Israel and Israel responded.  Trump then posts on social media that Israel should not have responded because Hezbollah's attacks were "meaningless" since they didn't harm or kill anyone.  It is perfectly understandable why Trump may feel this way because he wants to sign a deal but since when are attacks on your neighbor meaningless when the intent is there to  harm, kill and inflict damage, and since when is it not appropriate for the neighbor respond?  The fragility of this negotiation makes a deal completely unworkable IMO for the simple reason that whoever may sign a deal on behalf of Iran has no control over what transpires next within the Regime or its terrorist proxies.  To believe that everyone just packs up and goes home once the ink dries on a deal is about as naive as it gets.  Trump knows all this of course, so have to believe there is an immediate Plan B for when (not if) the deal fails.     

Edited 45 minutes ago by 73 Reds
word

[cubsfan]

23 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The difficulty with deals can be neatly summed up in what has taken place this morning.  Hezbollah resumed its attacks on Israel and Israel responded.  Trump then posts on social media that Israel should not have responded because Hezbollah's attacks were "meaningless" since they didn't harm or kill anyone.  It is perfectly understandable why Trump may feel this way because he wants to sign a deal but since when are attacks on your neighbor meaningless when the intent is there to  harm, kill and inflict damage, and since when is it not appropriate for the neighbor respond?  The fragility of this negotiation makes a deal completely unworkable IMO for the simple reason that whoever may sign a deal on behalf of Iran has no control over what transpires next within the Regime or its terrorist proxies.  To believe that everyone just packs up and goes home once the ink dries on a deal is about as naive as it gets.  Trump knows all this of course, so have to believe there is an immediate Plan B for when (not if) the deal fails.     

 

Totally agree. There may be some good or bad cop performance here.  Bibi is going to have to do what he has to do. Trump would never stand for anyone telling him he can't retaliate if missiles were lob in from Canada.

 

I'm convinced there is a plan B that will not be to the liking of Iran.

 

My guess was that no agreement/MOU would be signed, precisely because the IRGC knows it is a surrender document and they would be dead.

 

I'm still waiting for Kid's document to show up.

Edited 24 minutes ago by cubsfan

[73 Reds]

12 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Totally agree. There may be some good or bad cop performance here.  Bibi is going to have to do what he has to do. Trump would never stand for anyone telling him he can retaliate if missiles were lob in from Canada.

 

I'm convinced there is a plan B that will not be to the liking of Iran.

 

My guess was that no agreement/MOU would be signed, precisely because the IRGC knows it is a surrender document and they would be dead.

 

I'm still waiting for Kid's document to show up.

Well, Trump wrote "The Art of the Deal" and knows full well that when the "spirit" of a deal is lacking by one or both parties, there is no deal.  The US and Israel would happily live up to any deal that removes all threats.  Problem is, the objective of the other side is death and destruction so there can never be a proper spirit by the present Regime.  The only parties that recognize this are those under threat.  That is why Israel's objective remains regime change and no deal with the current cast of characters will change that.      

Edited 13 minutes ago by 73 Reds
word

[ourkid8]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

IRGC unleashed their pit bull, Hezbollah, onto Israel. Israel clobbering Beirut. Iran says they will now attack Israel. 

 

More pain ahead for Iran.

 

So much for MOU signing today!

The muzzle has officially been put on this rabid dog  

 

 

Edited 11 minutes ago by ourkid8

[ourkid8]

6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Well, Trump wrote "The Art of the Deal" and knows full well that when the "spirit" of a deal is lacking by one or both parties, there is no deal.  Sadly, the US and Israel would happily live up to any deal that removes all threats.  Problem is, the objective of the other side is death and destruction so there can never be a proper spirit by the present Regime.  The only parties that recognize this are those under threat.  That is why Israel's objective remains regime change and no deal with the current cast of characters will change that.      

Please refer to my above message from Trump. Since you were not invited to the big boys table, your country is throwing a tantrum. Enjoy the muzzle  

Edited 6 minutes ago by ourkid8