Political Posts

[whiskybravo]

20 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

I think 99.9% of Americans and everyone on this board hope Trump betters America and is right on these issues and his approach to fixing them.

 

Im just skeptical and don’t particularly like the guy, doesn’t mean I don’t want him to “succeed” and this country to prosper. I think Buckeye would fall in the same camp.

I think 99.9% is high by some bit.  Those that  hope he fails utterly (in some fairness to them they believe his failure is to the good of how they view the country) would probably approach 25%.  Just a guess.

 

I agree with you that this board filled with rational capitalists would have a more flexible, objective capability.  How much doubt is one comfortable with?  I question everything.

[Spekulatius]

There see quite a few MAGA followers who just want  “to burn everything down“.

 

Biden government was great for my personal wealth and I expect Trump to be the same but you have to approach it different- less buy and hold and more trading. Trump will make volatility great again.

 

As for drawdowns, Trump already had a 20% drawdown just 4 month in, totally self inflicted and I think we get more of the same. We are also now in a war with Iran, Russia still going all in Ukraine and I think China is going to work on project Taiwan and I think we will see a forceful takeover attempt ( may not be invasion) this decade.

 

I think the way the war went in Ukraine made this way more likely. Also the Chinese are building there own Semiconductor supply chain, so if Taiwans most advanced fabs go offline , they benefit even if they can’t take the island itself. They are ~5-10 years behind so if the most advanced fabs in Taiwan go offline (which are 2-3 years ahead of the rest), they made up half the tech gap to the west. Then the silicon shield protecting Taiwan would be gone, so would Trump Even have an incentive to defend it in this situation? I think we all know the answer.

 

Edited July 11, 2025 by Spekulatius

[73 Reds]

32 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

There see quite a few MAGA followers who just want  “to burn everything down“.

 

Biden government was great for my personal wealth and I expect Trump to be the same but you have to approach it different- less buy and hold and more trading. Trump will make volatility great again.

 

As for drawdowns, Trump already had a 20% drawdown just 4 month in, totally self inflicted and I think we get more of the same. We are also now in a war with Iran, Russia still going all in Ukraine and I think China is going to work on project Taiwan and I think we will see a forceful takeover attempt ( may not be invasion) this decade.

 

I think the way the war went in Ukraine made this way more likely. Also the Chinese are building there own Semiconductor supply chain, so if Taiwans most advanced fabs go offline , they benefit even if they can’t take the island itself. They are ~5-10 years behind so if the most advanced fabs in Taiwan go offline (which are 2-3 years ahead of the rest), they made up half the tech gap to the west. Then the silicon shield protecting Taiwan would be gone, so would Trump Even have an incentive to defend it in this situation? I think we all know the answer.

 

Wow, I kind of see things differently.  Most Trump supporters (what you call MAGA) want to build things back up.  As for me, no government is better or worse - my buy and hold strategy will not change.   The "war" with Iran was too long in coming and over before you could blink.  Russia/Ukraine is the same old quagmire and will only end when the two countries finally get tired of needless death and dying.  And maybe tariffs on China will turn their focus to something other than Taiwan.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Wow, I kind of see things differently.  Most Trump supporters (what you call MAGA) want to build things back up.  As for me, no government is better or worse - my buy and hold strategy will not change.   The "war" with Iran was too long in coming and over before you could blink.  Russia/Ukraine is the same old quagmire and will only end when the two countries finally get tired of needless death and dying.  And maybe tariffs on China will turn their focus to something other than Taiwan.

So you think the war against Iran is over?

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Malmqky said:

I think 99.9% of Americans and everyone on this board hope Trump betters America and is right on these issues and his approach to fixing them.

 

Im just skeptical and don’t particularly like the guy, doesn’t mean I don’t want him to “succeed” and this country to prosper. I think Buckeye would fall in the same camp.

 

+1!  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

The June report from the labor department stated that since the beginning of Trump’s second term, there have been 2.1M native-born jobs added and a drop of 543k foreign-born jobs.  Kind of dispels the talking point about Americans not wanting to do the jobs being done by migrants.  Employers are just going to have to raise wages.  Win for the working class.

It’s funny how they brake down jobs between native Borns and other which include people like me (. Non native citizens).

 

 I don’t agree with your conclusions. Native born jobs are up, but less so than the rise in native born population, which leads to labor participation going down.

Non native born population shows similar trend just a bit more pronounced. I am not sure this a big win. In any case, the labor market is still pretty strong as has been the case during the last administration.

 

 

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

I think 99.9% is high by some bit.  Those that  hope he fails utterly (in some fairness to them they believe his failure is to the good of how they view the country) would probably approach 25%.  Just a guess.

 

I agree with you that this board filled with rational capitalists would have a more flexible, objective capability.  How much doubt is one comfortable with?  I question everything.

 

It might be high but not far off...most Canadians, pension funds, investment funds, financial institutions have a significant exposure to U.S. investments/assets.  Any cold to the U.S. is pneumonia to Canada...so only a fool would like to see the U.S. fail in any way.  What they want to see is Trump eat humble pie, but he doesn't...he only eats McDonald's, KFC and Taco Bell!  

 

But when some Americans hear that, they assume Canada hates them, wants to support socialists, jihadists, anti-capitalists and those against freedom of speech.  No, we don't want any of that...we just wish you guys would put away your frat boy antics, lock up your guns properly, don't destroy the fundamental trust in science and maybe, just maybe, implement controls on campaign funding!  

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s funny how they brake down jobs between native Borns and other which include people like me (. Non native citizens).

 

 I don’t agree with your conclusions. Native born jobs are up, but less so than the rise in native born population, which leads to labor participation going down.

Non native born population shows similar trend just a bit more pronounced. I am not sure this a big win. In any case, the labor market is still pretty strong as has been the case during the last administration.

 

 

 

It also doesn't break down what type of jobs were taken up by native born...were they the same type of jobs the immigrants were doing?  Highly doubt that!  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

when I look at the US's top 8 trading partners that kind of really matter....more or less all of them are headed to ~10%

There is no way that Trump achieve his goals with 10% tariffs. They are going to be way higher for the EU most likely. The EU in officially offered 10% and it seems Trump wants much higher.

 

I think the 35% for non USMC compliant good shows the ballpark number that we are looking at. Also keep in mind that the USD already devalued an out 10% against most other currencies since Trump got started, so that adds to that. If Trump gets a lapdog Fed chair, the USD is giving lower, I think.

[whiskybravo]

30 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s funny how they brake down jobs between native Borns and other which include people like me (. Non native citizens).

 

 I don’t agree with your conclusions. Native born jobs are up, but less so than the rise in native born population, which leads to labor participation going down.

Non native born population shows similar trend just a bit more pronounced. I am not sure this a big win. In any case, the labor market is still pretty strong as has been the case during the last administration.

 

 

Your chart compares June 2025 to June 2024, whereas the statistics that I cited compared from February 2025.   Increase native and decrease foreign born.  So since you’re pointing out that a similar trend in foreign born employment from June 24 to 25, the fact that it decreased from February indeed suggests a change in the trend.  Is this secondary to deportation?    If there are less illegal migrants in the workforce, that might logically pressure wages up for the working class.  You got me.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

There is no way that Trump achieve his goals with 10% tariffs.

 

And thats my point.....honestly looks to me like he's capitulated on the big tariff re-shoring narrative as it pertains to large trading partners (know there's still some grandstanding with Canada etc.)...and the China tariffs are only going to serve to strategically hurt them moving more of their labor intensive industries offshore to lower cost and lower tariff locations but most certainly not to the US.......I mean he still talks about it and he seems laser focused on a couple of industries he's taken a shine to like autos where he seems determined to force a few visible wins.....but like you say 10% writ large isnt enough to change the opex difference than can be achieved in lots of European countries versus setting up in the US and the tariffs I'm seeing knocking on various countries dont create enough of a delta either.....hence why its looking more and more like a revenue raising exercise.....now I believe that in his naivety Trump thought that post-Liberation was just going to be win after win for him.....but what he found is that tariffs and trade are devishly complex.....for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction......and so the negatives of tariffs started to become clear to him and he's basically chickened out.

 

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The EU in officially offered 10% and it seems Trump wants much higher.

 

Thats right....and the word on the street (with some caveats and carve outs) is thats where we're going to land......with the proviso that Trump could do anything because he's so mercurial but the US negotiating team have been indicating to the EU team that 10% with higher duties on agriculture and a couple of other areas in the realm of market access, strategic purchases and fuzzy non-tariff barriers will likely work to get a deal over the line.

 

IMO the rush to get all this stuff done before August........is that preliminary inflation data containing the tariff hit is starting to creep into the data the Trump team likely has a preview on.......we can revisit my thesis after September/October print......but I think we are going to be getting some annualized 3%+ months coming up in late Q3 and into Q4.....as well as all the anecdotal reports of small businesses going to the wall & shoppers getting sticker shock.

 

If Trump decides to take Canada into the 8th and 9th round....my advise to Carney would be stick around to 10th round (Oct/Nov)...it will be worth a couple of months at 35%.......the political pain for Trump will starting around then.

 

Edited July 12, 2025 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

On 7/7/2025 at 4:12 PM, changegonnacome said:

I think Donald may have put a down payment on America’s next ‘forever’ war.

 

Trump Signals Support for New Israel Attack if Iran Moves Toward Bomb -

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-israel-nuclear-program-693a4e2a?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

And how of course would we know that Iran is moving towards a bomb seen as we bombed them thus ensuring the IEIA wont ever back in there?......and so we know have an information vacuum on that question and reliant on Mossad/Bibi for their take.....there is a very good reason why Bibi has clocked up no less than THREE visits to the White House in the first six months of this administration.....Trump has taken the boondoggle he inherited in Ukraine and mismanaged the situation.....and has somehow managed to get the US sucked into a boondoggle in the Middle East......Xi must be sitting in Beijing laughing his ass off as his chief global rival fumbles the ball & spend scarce resources on sideshows.

Edited July 12, 2025 by changegonnacome

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

So you think the war against Iran is over?

Since the moment Iran's nukes were destroyed, what has happened that you would define as "war"?

[73 Reds]

9 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Trump Signals Support for New Israel Attack if Iran Moves Toward Bomb -

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-israel-nuclear-program-693a4e2a?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

And how of course would we know that Iran is moving towards a bomb seen as we bombed them thus ensuring the IEIA wont ever back in there?......and so we know have an information vacuum on that question and reliant on Mossad/Bibi for their take.....there is a very good reason why Bibi has clocked up no less than THREE visits to the White House in the first six months of this administration.....Trump has taken the boondoggle he inherited in Ukraine and mismanaged the situation.....and has somehow managed to get the US sucked into a boondoggle in the Middle East......Xi must be sitting in Beijing laughing his ass off as his chief global rival fumbles the ball & spend scarce resources on sideshows.

So you suggest we do nothing?  Tell us, oh wise one, how you would handle this.  

[Spekulatius]

36 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Since the moment Iran's nukes were destroyed, what has happened that you would define as "war"?

Nothing yet. I do not think Irans nuclear potential has been destroyed and this  going re- emerge as a problem. The choices from then on for the US will be tougher and likely require a much deeper involvement.

 

If you look at this from an Iranian perspective given their background it is quite clear that only being a nuclear power gets you a seat on the table. i also think they will get know how help from Russia.

The Ukrainian war has shown that even though the China/Russia/Iran/NK axis avoid direct involvement in others wars, they do help out each other.

[changegonnacome]

14 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

So you suggest we do nothing?  Tell us, oh wise one, how you would handle this.  

JCPOA….which Trump never should have ripped up in the first place….and should have been happy to re-sign again on similar terms once he got back around a table with the Iranian’s earlier this year….but no he let the Israel negotiating position (no civil nuclear) become the US position….and now instead of putting our focus and scarce resources into a security project that matters , containing China, we are focused instead on a defacto regional conflict between two warring Middle East neighbours Iran and Israel. Let’s be frank about this Bibi has played Trump like violin and the US (under Trump) is now pot committed to what is clearly a Bibi-led aggression campaign to overthrow the regime in Tehran using a WMD ghosts as a trigger…short version is that it was entirely possible to freeze that conflict earlier this year and allow the US to move its focus to East Asia. 
 

Re:Russia….its becoming oh so clear that if you truly wanted the war to end there when he came into office….throwing Russia’s military opponent under the bus straight out the gates was not the way to bring Russia to the table with palatable deal the correct strategy was an escalate to de-escalate one…Donald decided to publicly bleed Ukraine dry of American support instead. Donald was clearly taken in by his imaginary good relationship with Putin…which is really just a manipulation of Trump….something to which even Donald is starting to realize and admit to publicly…showing weakness to Putin straight out the gates of the administration only served to embolden his ‘peace’ demands & war aspirations….it was a monumentally stupid piece of war diplomacy. 
 

I feel bad for Trump - in Bibi and Putin he has two elite level politicians and strategic thinkers….its not a fair fight.

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Nothing yet. I do not think Irans nuclear potential has been destroyed and this  going re- emerge as a problem. The choices from then on for the US will be tougher and likely require a much deeper involvement.

 

If you look at this from an Iranian perspective given their background it is quite clear that only being a nuclear power gets you a seat on the table. i also think they will get know how help from Russia.

The Ukrainian war has shown that even though the China/Russia/Iran/NK axis avoid direct involvement in others wars, they do help out each other.

Since Iran has already all but developed nuclear capabilities, you can't put the genie back in the bottle with regard to the future.  However you can weaken their capabilities to a point where they are no longer an existential threat.  That has been done.  W/R/T China/Russia/North Korea, no one (certainly not Trump) made promises to immediately vanquish their destructive ideologies.  But you have to start somewhere and doing nothing clearly doesn't work.

[73 Reds]

11 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

JCPOA….which Trump never should have ripped up in the first place….and should have been happy to re-sign again on similar terms once he got back around a table with the Iranian’s earlier this year….but no he let the Israel negotiating position (no civil nuclear) become the US position….and now instead of putting our focus and scarce resources into a security project that matters , containing China, we are focused instead on a defacto regional conflict between two warring Middle East neighbours Iran and Israel. Let’s be frank about this Bibi has played Trump like violin and the US (under Trump) is now pot committed to what is clearly a Bibi-led aggression campaign to overthrow the regime in Tehran using a WMD ghosts as a trigger…short version is that it was entirely possible to freeze that conflict earlier this year and allow the US to move its focus to East Asia. 
 

Re:Russia….its becoming oh so clear that if you truly wanted the war to end there when he came into office….throwing Russia’s military opponent under the bus straight out the gates was not the way to bring Russia to the table with palatable deal the correct strategy was an escalate to de-escalate one…Donald decided to publicly bleed Ukraine dry of American support instead. Donald was clearly taken in by his imaginary good relationship with Putin…which is really just a manipulation of Trump….something to which even Donald is starting to realize and admit to publicly…showing weakness to Putin straight out the gates of the administration only served to embolden his ‘peace’ demands & war aspirations….it was a monumentally stupid piece of war diplomacy. 
 

I feel bad for Trump - in Bibi and Putin he has two elite level politicians and strategic thinkers….its not a fair fight.

We should not have been signing anything with Iran while they were pursuing nuclear ambitions.  The World is a much safer place now than it was just a few short weeks ago - or do you disagree with that?  And again, what would you suggest we do with regard to Russia/Ukraine?  Or was Biden's strategy of endlessly funding a never-ending war the right approach?  Critics are like Monday-morning quarterbacks - they are worth what they get paid.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

We should not have been signing anything with Iran while they were pursuing nuclear ambitions. 

 

They weren't - don't believe me - believe Trump's own appointed Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in March 2025 who testifyed to the matter under oath to Congress:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-iran-wasnt-building-a-nuclear-weapon-trump-dismisses-that-assessment

 

This is before Bibi got in Donald's ear and the neocons got a hold of Donald's brain.

 

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

The World is a much safer place now than it was just a few short weeks ago - or do you disagree with that?

 

On the contrary - a few weeks ago Iran was crawling with IAEA inspectors.....the world had its eyes on their enriched uranium and centrifuges....and we were in negotiations to (again) freeze their program in place with a deep inspections regime.....Iran was to put it bluntly a kind of semi-domesticated rogue state.

 

Today -

- we have no idea where their enriched uranium is

- we have no inspectors on the ground and we are not at the table continue to domesticate them under our rules

- and so even if you believe the Trump propaganda that the B2 bombing obliterated every last centrifuge in Iran (which is wishful thinking)

- It is impossible to bomb the KNOW HOW on how to build centruges out of the minds of the Iranian engineers who built the old ones!

 

So is the world safer - no its demonstrably got alot more dangerous.....

 

Iran was in some respects foolish to sign the JCPOA back in the 2010's with us and should have instead taken the North Korea route....they are unlikely to make that mistake again and so

 

- a nation of 70 million people,

- vast financial oil resources and a client for those resource (China) that we cant control.....

- has 60% enriched uranium

- centrifugal production knowledge

- sophisticated ballistic missile technology

- And is most likely racing towards a nuclear program

- all while our visibility on that program has gone DARK

 

If a bunch of half broke peasants in North Korea can produce a bomb in secret I can assure you Tehran can if they put their mind to it.

 

So Iran is racing towards a bomb..and as my story goes they would be foolish not too.....the military options available to stop a nuclear program that has gone underground in a country and regime like Iran are not low overhead and would involve simply massive military commitments from the United States on a financial scale that might make Ukraine look cheap over time.

 

Why?

 

Because outside the realms of pure nuclear non-proliferation and military costs to stop it..... that same nation (Iran) has levers to pull that effect the global economy.....with their ability to disrupt with mines, missiles and other means one of the globes great strategic economic choke points - the Strait of Hormuz. The overt military costs of stopping Iran would pale into insignificance the economic costs that could be imposed by them on us.

 

The great crime - is that the above emerging nightmare was completely avoidable.....great executives of companies and nations.....block and tackle and put out fires or stop fires from igniting such that they can focus on key strategic objectives in our case that is containing China......whats the great phrase...."keep the main thing, the main thing".........

 

I'll give Trump something of a pass on Ukraine which he inherited (though his clumsy six month attempt at ending the conflict has been a disaster).......this Iran problem which wont go away now is 100% his folly.....completely avoidable....but he got sucked in by what I consider to be one of the great politicians of all time Bibi Netanyahu....who eats two Donald Trumps for breakfast each morning with his toast and coffee.

 

 

Edited July 12, 2025 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the 35% for non USMC compliant good shows the ballpark number that we are looking at.

 

Trump Threatens 30% Tariffs on EU, Mexico

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-threatens-30-tariffs-on-eu-mexico-c48ce36f?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

30% August 1st letter issued to the EU.....my comments have not aged well @Spekulatius ! .....but for those who want an insight into Trump world.....I have a contact with first hand knowledge of the EU-US negotiations...this network is very wide as the EU side needs to keep each of the 27 EU states abreast of what's being discussed...but he was unequivocal that the two sides understanding is that they we're headed for what he called a 'UK like'  deal.....kinda 10% background tariff rates some carve outs and some upcycled rates on agriculture.....both negotiating teams the US and EU we're days away from signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) they thought on this basis ( or in MAGA world thats called a trade deal).

 

The US side itself has been completely blindsided by this letter they are saying.......the hot take internally.....is Trump wishes to inject himself and some TV worthy drama into the last mile of negotiations such that he can directly "own" some big "trade deal" concessions (already secured by the US side).....to be announced in the coming weeks.....these letters are a narcissistic fingerprinting exercise....

 

Trump likes to claim he is involved in every deal negotiation somehow...down in the weeds....but its far from the case....he is barely even tangentially engaged the US side says and finds the details of trade negotiating completely "boring"......... this is the reality TV president after all....he understands dramatic arcs......there is no story without a last minute dramatic twist....there is no heroic win he can claim unless the deal might fall apart at the last minute......and some major concession extracted by him personally to put it all back together and secure a 'great' deal.

 

While Trump knows little of the contents of the major 'trade deals; he is supposedly negotiating with the US's largest trading partners - he knows a huge amount and has a huge interest in the fixtures and fittings of the White House - the 'Decorator-in-Chief' - 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 12, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

Yes, that was about what I expected. What the EU should do is give Sheinbaum, Carney a call and coordinate to counter the tariffs with equal counter tariffs, which is basically what China did. Then Trump will have to do what he said he would do and raise again. Keep doing this until tariffs are ridiculous levels. Add an extra digital tax to make sure the Mag 7 stocks are hit. The faster the SPY goes to 5000 again (Taco level) the better.   
 

Trump is making volatility great again! Yeehaw! 

Edited July 12, 2025 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, that was about what I expected. What the EU should do is give Sheinbaum, Carney a call and coordinate to counter the tariffs with equal counter tariffs, which is basically what China did.

 

indeed time to get the list out again of the Senators up for re-election next year and figure out what industries most hurt their States and coordinate retaliation measures towards them....... Trump can deal with the House flipping next year....but if the Senate goes his he's in deep dog doo...nothing would scare Trump more than the House and Senate flipping next year which might really curtail Eric and Don Jnr's deal flow.

 

Anyway don't think we ever get there.....this a narcissistic PR fingerprinting exercise....the next episode of the Donald show is titled "how Trump got America unbelievable concessions nobody had ever thought possible from the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, S Korea etc. " Tune in next week.

[73 Reds]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

They weren't - don't believe me - believe Trump's own appointed Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in March 2025 who testifyed to the matter under oath to Congress:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-iran-wasnt-building-a-nuclear-weapon-trump-dismisses-that-assessment

 

This is before Bibi got in Donald's ear and the neocons got a hold of Donald's brain.

 

 

On the contrary - a few weeks ago Iran was crawling with IAEA inspectors.....the world had its eyes on their enriched uranium and centrifuges....and we were in negotiations to (again) freeze their program in place with a deep inspections regime.....Iran was to put it bluntly a kind of semi-domesticated rogue state.

 

Today -

- we have no idea where their enriched uranium is

- we have no inspectors on the ground and we are not at the table continue to domesticate them under our rules

- and so even if you believe the Trump propaganda that the B2 bombing obliterated every last centrifuge in Iran (which is wishful thinking)

- It is impossible to bomb the KNOW HOW on how to build centruges out of the minds of the Iranian engineers who built the old ones!

 

So is the world safer - no its demonstrably got alot more dangerous.....

 

Iran was in some respects foolish to sign the JCPOA back in the 2010's with us and should have instead taken the North Korea route....they are unlikely to make that mistake again and so

 

- a nation of 70 million people,

- vast financial oil resources and a client for those resource (China) that we cant control.....

- has 60% enriched uranium

- centrifugal production knowledge

- sophisticated ballistic missile technology

- And is most likely racing towards a nuclear program

- all while our visibility on that program has gone DARK

 

If a bunch of half broke peasants in North Korea can produce a bomb in secret I can assure you Tehran can if they put their mind to it.

 

So Iran is racing towards a bomb..and as my story goes they would be foolish not too.....the military options available to stop a nuclear program that has gone underground in a country and regime like Iran are not low overhead and would involve simply massive military commitments from the United States on a financial scale that might make Ukraine look cheap over time.

 

Why?

 

Because outside the realms of pure nuclear non-proliferation and military costs to stop it..... that same nation (Iran) has levers to pull that effect the global economy.....with their ability to disrupt with mines, missiles and other means one of the globes great strategic economic choke points - the Strait of Hormuz. The overt military costs of stopping Iran would pale into insignificance the economic costs that could be imposed by them on us.

 

The great crime - is that the above emerging nightmare was completely avoidable.....great executives of companies and nations.....block and tackle and put out fires or stop fires from igniting such that they can focus on key strategic objectives in our case that is containing China......whats the great phrase...."keep the main thing, the main thing".........

 

I'll give Trump something of a pass on Ukraine which he inherited (though his clumsy six month attempt at ending the conflict has been a disaster).......this Iran problem which wont go away now is 100% his folly.....completely avoidable....but he got sucked in by what I consider to be one of the great politicians of all time Bibi Netanyahu....who eats two Donald Trumps for breakfast each morning with his toast and coffee.

 

 

I give up and accept much more than your assurance.  Believe what you wish.

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

I give up and accept much more than your assurance.  Believe what you wish.

 

Indeed - beautiful thing is we'll get to see who's current version of reality more closely aligns with what's about to unfold.....we can compare notes in a couple of years. I hope your right and I'm completely and utterly wrong. But my guess is as regards Iran we about here in this conflicts arc - 

 

 

 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Indeed - beautiful thing is we'll get to see who's current version of reality more closely aligns with what's about to unfold.....we can compare notes in a couple of years. I hope your right and I'm completely and utterly wrong. But my guess is as regards Iran we about here in this conflicts arc - 

 

 

 

We can choose to ignore "Death to America, Death to Israel" and ignore Israel's intelligence.  Or not.  The 64,000 foot view suggests we made the correct call and decision.  Most of the Arab World agrees, as does Europe.  Where are the critics other than from left wing nuts and the UN?