RV Capital - Rob Vinall

[Dinar]

49 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

See below - European manager so EUR investor base........as European manager then your benchmark isn't really SPY.....however....returns net of fees annualized & including the 2022 drawdown for fund come out at a 12.4% CAGR

 

Thank you.  These statistics are clearly inaccurate or misleading, whether by accident or design I do not know.  DJIN total return from 09/30/2008 through 12/31/2022 = 352% in USD or 11.97% annualized.  In Euro, it is 466.84% or 13.88% annualized.   If he cannot get this right....

[Spekulatius]

Looks like they mostly invest in US tech, so the hurdle should be QQQ.

 

And, yes, their  DIA return seems completely off. I get a similar result than @Dinar using this freeware calculator:

https://finmasters.com/stock-calculator/?sa=DIA&d=20080930&a=1000

Edited January 18, 2023 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Looks like they mostly invest in US tech

Part of the style drift I spoke about…..I remember seeing the portfolio years ago……and it was predominantly EMEA……and sector weighting was to financial services, if anything, back then.

 

Everybody started to hear Cathie Wood in their head it seems towards the end of the great bull market

 

Interesting on return fact sheet……if anyone cared too they should email him and ask…..I myself couldn’t be bothered.

[Dinar]

27 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Part of the style drift I spoke about…..I remember seeing the portfolio years ago……and it was predominantly EMEA……and sector weighting was to financial services, if anything, back then.

 

Everybody started to hear Cathie Wood in their head it seems towards the end of the great bull market

 

Interesting on return fact sheet……if anyone cared too they should email him and ask…..I myself couldn’t be bothered.

He will tell you that it is in USD excluding dividends.   So all he is doing is comparing apples in dollars to oranges in Euros.  Honest mistake that happens to be in his favor!   What's 500 basis points per annum between friends?

[changegonnacome]

41 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Honest mistake that happens to be in his favor!   What's 500 basis points per annum between friends?

Lying with statistics……you’d run out jail cells pretty quick for that particular crime ……. but a crime nonetheless 

[UK]

5 hours ago, Dinar said:

He will tell you that it is in USD excluding dividends.   So all he is doing is comparing apples in dollars to oranges in Euros.  Honest mistake that happens to be in his favor!   What's 500 basis points per annum between friends?

 

It seems you a right. Though it is only a benchmark, in his case it would be much better to use just to SNP in EUR including dividends or some ETF (SXR8 or VUA1), available as real alternative for investor. At least this is how I understand a benchmark:). It is interesting that I have never spoted this issue with benchmarks myself, despite of following RV and his results for quite some time, maybe because it seems totaly out of character for him.

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by UK

[MattR]

14 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

RVCapital it seems suffered from kind of style drift.........he started of as value-ish, then GARP.......but GARP worked so well during ZIRP in the late 2010's & his returns so good.....that he went from growth at a reasonable price to growth at any price and ended up owning Carvana in the end with shit loads of debt and growth that had to happen to keep the whole enterprise afloat......difference between RVCapital and Clifford Sosin's/CAS Parters.....who i think RVCapital coat-tailed into Carvana is that at least Rob didn't let Carvana get to be 60% of the fund......and so he'll live to fight another day.

 

Regardless Rob has shown an ability to make the right calls on idiosyncratic ideas. The stuff he does with emerging managers is also to be commended. I would say the price for long-term outperformance in a fund managed by competent manager is occasional & sometimes spectacular underperformance....its to be expected when you hold things that don't look like the index & the cruelty that is mark-to-Dec 31st which by luck alone makes some managers look like geniuses or losers (for a short time).

 

 

CVNA, CACC, WIX, CRM, TRUP. These are either or were extremely overvalued, partly fraudulent (CVNA, CACC, TRUP in trying to pass as subscription instead of insurance). Or they have no moat (WIX) . It is hard to make a worse portfolio IMO

[changegonnacome]

10 hours ago, MattR said:

CVNA, CACC, WIX, CRM, TRUP. These are either or were extremely overvalued, partly fraudulent (CVNA, CACC, TRUP in trying to pass as subscription instead of insurance). Or they have no moat (WIX) . It is hard to make a worse portfolio IMO

 

Yep I agree - style drift....as I said

 

The idiosyncratic ideas i spoke about was earlier in the funds history......today it looks like ARKK-lite, this was his downfall on 2022 performance anyway....lets see moving forward..........this is a tough tough game and a humbling one......one swallow does not make a summer........you can look like your winning or losing for quite a long time, even when your making horrible or indeed astute contemporaneous investment decisions......because the market simply going up or down feeds you confirmation bias.

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by changegonnacome