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Crypto/Blockchain long term


Longnose
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I have read most the threads about Bitcoin and other Crypto stuff on this forum. I know that the general sentiment for Crypto is negative. But I wanted to ask and see if we have any closet crypto/blockchain bulls on this forum?

 

Over Thanksgiving I took it upon myself to explore down the crypto rabbit hole purely from an educational / wanting to understand how it works perspective. This stemmed from a conversation with a friend who is very bullish on the space. My perspective has always been that I believe there is significant value to blockchain technology and potentially crypto currencies. But as a self proclaimed value investor I don't know how to quantify a value to any of it so I just steer clear of it.

 

After exploring down the rabbit hole. I am now even more convinced that the blockchain technology & potentially crypto will be a massive part of the future of commerce. All this said I do think that cryptos are in quite a bubble. It definitely has trends that look similar to the dot.com era. People saw the internet and said this is the future and everyone was dumping money into all sorts of websites that have virtually no value. Crypto is similar where 90% of the projects have no value. But things like Bitcoin and Ethereum are laying infrastructure that will likely support the future of blockchain technology. There likely could be a bubble pop that could resemble the dot.com pop where Something like AMZN went from $100 in 99' to $7 in 01'. 

 

Has anyone looked at alternative ways to play in the blockchain/crypto space? I recently saw Jack Dorsey is resigning from Twitter to focus solely on SQ and is going hard on BTC integrations. I've also been a long term fan of what SQ has been providing small business. 

 

Anyways, I'm not looking to create a controversial thread but wanting to know if anyone else sees any of the positives that will come from this technology. Also, if anyone has identified "safer" ways to play crypto / blockchain tech besides speculating on coins/mining?

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You can get high single percentage yields in stablecoins on services like Celsius and BlockFi. I've mentioned these in other threads, but the reception to them has been less than warm. Feel free to PM me if you want more info.

 

Beyond that, I'm not a closet bull. I've spent the last 2 years accumulating up to ~20% of my networth in crypto. Mostly in BTC, but some in ETH and other DeFi related tokens and have been pretty open about being super bullish on BTC over the long-term. There is another crypto thread here though so maybe we keep the conversation to that one? 

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This thread would be better were it moved to one of the other crypto threads, but to speak to the question.

 

There is NO safe crypto investment, the reality is that you have to deal with risk - measured as expected return/volatility.

Generally, the longer the holding period the less risk  For most, an investment via an crypto ETF will be better than a direct investment. Look at the Purpose ETF's, those paying a monthly dividend, and a 2-5 year hold. Professionally managed, cash returning capital every month, a double in 2 years producing a double digit CAGR.

 

Most would expect BTC's price to materially rise, once the 21M cap is reached. Simply because buyer/seller will be splitting the mining cost and paying in Satoshi - every 1/100 of a US cent increase in the price of a Satoshi, increases the price of a BTC by USD 10,000. That's the real 'bull' case - everything else is largely noise.

 

A 100K outlay values at maybe 400K in 5 years.

If you receive 6%/yr for 5 years (30K), maybe 70K at risk at the end of year 5

Payoff? 400/70, or 5.71x ........ to simply sit on your ass and do nothing

 

SD

 

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I concur, great tech, probabily a bubble right now as it was the dotcom, my investment is 4% BTC, 0.5% ETH, 0.5%, Im willing to expand my holdings in the future as I learn more. 

Moreover I begun to learn Solidity language, it's interesting and challenging .

 

“The computer science behind bitcoin is a great triumph of the human mind. They created a product that’s hard to create more of but not impossible. [But] I see an artificial speculative medium."

Charlie Munger, 2018

 

I initially tought Munger's critical perspective on crypto was the result of ignorance, but I was wrong (glad to be wrong). Indeed this quote demonstrates an incredible understanding of the matter for a 97 yr old man.

Edited by Dave86ch
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