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2021 Q3 13F


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1 hour ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Not sure. I use TIKR to look for foreign holdings.  

 

BYD HK(211) is the only foreign stock I see listed for Himalaya Capital Management LLC Investments

 

https://app.tikr.com/investor?id=5057306933&ref=gb181q

 

They also own quite a bit of PSBC 01658.hk. Found it on a filing with HKEX.  If someone know a place, please share.

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Interesting to see BRK trade in and out of CVX. 

 

I know Buffett has been looking at oil price for decades.  I wonder if he keeps track of marginal production cost, and goes in when oil companies are priced assuming oil price below marginal production cost and gets out when oil companies are priced assuming oil price above that? Or, wonder if he is going in when he gets worried about inflation, and comes out when he is less worried?  

 

He has gone in and out of XOM multiple times before.  If memory serves right, he also went into COP once, but then, had to sell at a loss because inflation didn't materialize and oil price fell a lot that time.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, gfp said:

Apple has gone and hit a new all time high today.  Berkshire's 907.42 million shares are worth more than $143 Billion (pretax) this afternoon.

 

and UNP recently crossed 150 Billion Market Cap.

 

Cash(150B) + Stock holdings(333B) + BNSF(150B) = BRK(630B)  the rest of the BRK businesses are free.

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On 11/16/2021 at 11:55 PM, LearningMachine said:

Interesting to see BRK trade in and out of CVX. 

 

I know Buffett has been looking at oil price for decades.  I wonder if he keeps track of marginal production cost, and goes in when oil companies are priced assuming oil price below marginal production cost and gets out when oil companies are priced assuming oil price above that? Or, wonder if he is going in when he gets worried about inflation, and comes out when he is less worried?  

 

He has gone in and out of XOM multiple times before.  If memory serves right, he also went into COP once, but then, had to sell at a loss because inflation didn't materialize and oil price fell a lot that time.

 

 

 

he is trying to catch the ex-dividend dates for a 5% on a round-trip

 

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  • 1 month later...
On 11/16/2021 at 10:55 PM, LearningMachine said:

Interesting to see BRK trade in and out of CVX. 

 

I know Buffett has been looking at oil price for decades.  I wonder if he keeps track of marginal production cost, and goes in when oil companies are priced assuming oil price below marginal production cost and gets out when oil companies are priced assuming oil price above that? Or, wonder if he is going in when he gets worried about inflation, and comes out when he is less worried?  

 

He has gone in and out of XOM multiple times before.  If memory serves right, he also went into COP once, but then, had to sell at a loss because inflation didn't materialize and oil price fell a lot that time.

 

 


Oil is definitely in his circle of competence. He knows the industry data better than a lot of C level execs in the space. He has talked about oil a few times at annual meetings. 
 

He knows all the macro supply and demand trends over time. He knows how many active rigs are drilling. He calls them “straws”.

 

He knows the estimated reserves underground. He knows the industry cost curve, etc. 

 

As you alluded, he projects a company’s average cost per barrel to get oil out of the ground and to market. He breaks everything down to the per barrel cost. And, he likes to buy the lowest cost producers when he expects supply to be tight.

 

He said he was shocked when he read a company’s annual report one time and they didn’t provide their per-barrel extraction cost.

 

He has made some mistakes in oil, though. You can’t copy his individual oil investments blindly. But, if you copied 100% of his oil investments you’d probably have more hits than misses.

 

 

Edited by Thrifty3000
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