Deep Value in Alpha Met Resources stock / warrants $AMR , $CNTWW

[cm2]

I think Alpha Met will earn 100% of its market cap in 2022, 2023 at these met coal spot prices, could pay out $50+ special dividend each year

 

The warrants are incredibly cheap, I think already worth $21+ using Black Scholes and 1.15 Exchange ratio 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dalian-met-coal-coke-hit-record-high-on-supply-crunch-2021-09-09

[Gamecock-YT]

Well the question is are these spot prices sustainable? Will the Chinese bend on Aussie coal? Will the Mongolia/China border get back to normal? If either of those occur, spot prices are going down. I have a tiny bagholder position in $AMR so I've been keeping an eye on things but looking to get out while the getting is good. 

[hasilp89]

I had been invested in HCC a while back and had looked at ramaco a few months back before it doubled. Indeed how long these spot px’s lasts is the question. With some other commodities you’re seeing what may be longer term fundamental supply/demand features that could result in new floors for prices (steel/copper heck uranium)

do you see any of that with coal or is this purely a temp China thing. Also if the narrative is China going eaf won’t met coal demand suffer longer term (alternate argument to be made that there isn’t a real shot China can convert to eaf rapidly at all)

[cm2]

How did I do?

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, cm2 said:

How did I do?

Depends how big your stake was?

[cm2]

On 1/26/2023 at 8:19 PM, Sweet said:

Depends how big your stake was?

I had a large stake

[sholland]

$CNTWW haunts me.  In 2020 these were very illiquid. After watching these dip to $0.10 I tried to buy over 40,000 at $0.15, but only managed to buy 2543.  After quickly making a couple thousand dollars tax free forever in my Roth IRA I sold.  $CNTWW top ticked over $150. I missed my only chance I’ll probably ever get at a 1000 bagger.  These are the little anomalies that small sums of money can take advantage of that large sums cannot. 
 

Edited June 11, 2023 by sholland

[ValueArb]

10 minutes ago, sholland said:

$CNTWW haunts me.  In 2020 these were very illiquid. After watching these dip to $0.10 I tried to buy over 40,000 at $0.15, but only managed to buy 2543.  After quickly making a couple thousand dollars tax free forever in my Roth IRA I sold.  $CNTWW top ticked over $150. I missed my only chance I’ll probably ever get at a 1000 bagger.  These are the little anomalies that small sums of money can take advantage of that large sums cannot. 
 

 

If it makes you feel any better there is a money manager named Warren who has never even had a hundred bagger, or the biggest gainer of the year or decade, but somehow still beat the market by around 100x in his first 30 years. Don't let FOMO eat you up, just keep learning and applying what you learn.