augustabound Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Link doesn't work No, it got taken down quickly. It was posted on reddit and it lasted about 15 minutes.
Gregmal Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Its amusing how secretive this dude is. Its not like he's protecting valuable ideas anymore.
StubbleJumper Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Its amusing how secretive this dude is. Its not like he's protecting valuable ideas anymore. Most guys are so desperate to increase AUM that they are more than happy to have their letters out in the public domain where it might attract a few new dollars. Klarman is funny about wanting to restrict his AUM. SJ
Jurgis Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 I got a copy before it was taken down. I won't post it here since IIRC Sanjeev removes it from CoBF too. I don't think there's much in the letter that is not known from Klarman's interviews/articles/etc.
JayGatsby Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Wonder if they do this intentionally to create a scarcity value around the fund? It must be awesome because they don't want everyone to know their secrets!
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 If you do a twitter search, it's very easy to find.
oddballstocks Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Not sure why this is secret: Here's a summary -They work very hard to find ideas -Even when markets fall they're working hard -A rough summary of what happened in the US news and culture in 2018 -A little political summary of 2018 -The world was great when Klarman was a kid in the good old days of six TV stations and "real" news -Thanks to what he considers the best team in the world That's it. Oh and he went long PG&E before the fire and is just holding...
augustabound Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Which is why the secrecy in which he operates is all the more absurd. He's not saying anything.
Jurgis Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Not sure why this is secret: Here's a summary -They work very hard to find ideas -Even when markets fall they're working hard -A rough summary of what happened in the US news and culture in 2018 -A little political summary of 2018 -The world was great when Klarman was a kid in the good old days of six TV stations and "real" news -Thanks to what he considers the best team in the world That's it. Oh and he went long PG&E before the fire and is just holding... Good summary.
Gregmal Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 I agree it was a fluff piece for the most part, but again that is what one should expect from an astute operator. You want to give out just enough to make your clients feel good about their investment but not so much that your competitors can actually mimic your strategy. I doubt anyone is looking to mimic his strategy right now. I think the secrecy at this point is about getting attention. He saw it did wonders for the value of his book. Which like his strategy, is nothing special.
Guest Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 But...his book is over $800, err $1,000, err $1,500 on amazon!!!
JimBowerman Posted January 23, 2019 Posted January 23, 2019 Wish he would list performance since inception like Buffett does (ideally by year). Always rubs me the wrong way when this sort of basic info is omitted and can't help but feel its on purpose.
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 Wish he would list performance since inception like Buffett does (ideally by year). Always rubs me the wrong way when this sort of basic info is omitted and can't help but feel its on purpose. Baupost provides this info to its investors via other channels.
Guest Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 according to this its 16.2% since inception. Though I'd imagine it's lower since last 2018 was basically flat https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/05/this-famous-value-investor-is-betting-on-an-amc-en.aspx From my recollection, he underperformed S&P 500 from inception through 1999 but anyone can feel free to correct that if I'm wrong. So, it looks like the 16.2% is as of the end of 2015. He had a "high single digit return in 2016, a "mid single digit return in 2017 and "a roughly breakeven and a decline of less than one percent for the year ended December 31." So the numbers are now less than 16.2 since the last 3 years are quite a bit less than that.
Guest Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 16.2% since inception. That sounds like an extremely impressive number for what I understand is a multi-billion dollar fully-hedged cigar butt flipping fund... It's a solid record. I think it's especially solid given that he holds large amounts of cash and his risk aversion. The overall performance numbers (strictly speaking on performance) are good but not crazy good.
schin Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 I doubt anyone is looking to mimic his strategy right now. I think the secrecy at this point is about getting attention. He saw it did wonders for the value of his book. Which like his strategy, is nothing special. I have to admit... it was a really good book. He wrote something that was Ben Graham meets Howard Marks letters and meets David Dreman next... But, with Howard Marks stuff out now, his topics and concepts are covered very well.
oddballstocks Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 16.2% since inception. That sounds like an extremely impressive number for what I understand is a multi-billion dollar fully-hedged cigar butt flipping fund... It's a solid record. I think it's especially solid given that he holds large amounts of cash and his risk aversion. The overall performance numbers (strictly speaking on performance) are good but not crazy good. I believe it's lower now. I know someone who had the numbers. He made the majority of his returns in 2002-2003 and in 2008. He killed it during crashes, but outside of that it's been middling. I'm not really sure they're a cigar butt fund either. I know they're heavy into debt, and heavy into private investments.
Guest Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 I agree Nate. The 16.2% was at the end of 2015 it looks like. The last 3 years were a good amount below that. I'd guess it's probably in the mid/ low 15% now. I'm not sure if this is net or gross returns though. Not exactly the best time to return funds: https://www.businessinsider.com/seth-klarman-baupost-group-to-return-capital-2010-11 I'd love to know what his returns were when he manages small amounts vs large.
nickenumbers Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 Great quote from his letter- "In October...stocks plunged indiscriminately... We did what we usually do amidst market turmoil, which is to re-check our analysis, prioritize our opportunities, and buy. Tide Market... When the tide goes out, it takes everything with it, and an investor must adjust in real time to the rapidly changing prices while considering the possibility of a deterioration in fundamentals. [price declines unrelated to fundamentals vs. price declines anticipatory of fundamental erosion].. " AMEN SETH
Guest Posted January 24, 2019 Posted January 24, 2019 How is he finding bargains now (even with the selloff) when it was so hard in 2010? :o Keep in mind he was managing about $10 billion or so less back then too.
Spekulatius Posted January 25, 2019 Posted January 25, 2019 16.2% since inception. That sounds like an extremely impressive number for what I understand is a multi-billion dollar fully-hedged cigar butt flipping fund... Most of the time the returns are front loaded and when the AUM get larger due to funds flowing in, Th returns become subpar. I wonder about dollar weighted returns with these hedge funds. It's a solid record. I think it's especially solid given that he holds large amounts of cash and his risk aversion. The overall performance numbers (strictly speaking on performance) are good but not crazy good. I believe it's lower now. I know someone who had the numbers. He made the majority of his returns in 2002-2003 and in 2008. He killed it during crashes, but outside of that it's been middling. I'm not really sure they're a cigar butt fund either. I know they're heavy into debt, and heavy into private investments.
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