Fairfax stock positions

[dartmonkey]

I hate to bring up this painful subject, but...

 

What the hell is happening at Blackberry?

 

Recap from last year's AR:

 

We got our money back on our convertible ($167 million in 2020, $183 million in 2023 and $150 million in 2024) plus cumulative interest income of approximately $200 million. Our common stock position as of 2023 ($162 million or 8% of the company) which was acquired at a cost of $17.16 per share was valued on our balance sheet at $3.54 per share. Another horrendous investment by your Chairman.

 

At $3.54 at the end of 2023, this would mean they owned 45.8m shares, which is what they reported on p.15 of the report. Dataroma says they have 46.7m, maybe because Watsa owns some personally, but let's take that 45.8m, assuming they have neither bought nor sold any shares. A year later, the share price was much the same, $3.68, after trading as low as $2.01 during the year 2024. But in the last 6 weeks, the price has soared, to $6.20 right now, or up 68% year to date, in a flat market. Ok, that's only a gain of $115m, which is small fry for Fairfax nowadays, but still, it's something.

 

And I can't see any news that would justify this: Blackberry just sold off their cybersecurity business (Cylance) at a huge loss, and are focusing on Internet of Things (IoT), whose revenues are growing a bit (13% last year, to all of $62m...), and now they are trying to give away the software (QNX) to engineers in India and elsewhere in the hope that it will become a standard. 

 

Blackberry's current market cap is $3.7b, hard to fathom. Is there speculation they might be acquired? As a long-suffering Fairfax shareholder, I can only dream...

[dartmonkey]

I hate to bring up this painful subject, but...

 

What the hell is happening at Blackberry?

 

Recap from last year's AR:

 

We got our money back on our convertible ($167 million in 2020, $183 million in 2023 and $150 million in 2024) plus cumulative interest income of approximately $200 million. Our common stock position as of 2023 ($162 million or 8% of the company) which was acquired at a cost of $17.16 per share was valued on our balance sheet at $3.54 per share. Another horrendous investment by your Chairman.

 

At $3.54 at the end of 2023, this would mean they owned 45.8m shares, which is what they reported on p.15 of the report. Dataroma says they have 46.7m, maybe because Watsa owns some personally, but let's take that 45.8m, assuming they have neither bought nor sold any shares. A year later, the share price was much the same, $3.68, after trading as low as $2.01 during the year 2024. But in the last 6 weeks, the price has soared, to $6.20 right now, or up 68% year to date, in a flat market. Ok, that's only a gain of $115m, which is small fry for Fairfax nowadays, but still, it's something.

 

And I can't see any news that would justify this: Blackberry just sold off their cybersecurity business (Cylance) at a huge loss, and are focusing on Internet of Things (IoT), whose revenues are growing a bit (13% last year, to all of $62m...), and now they are trying to give away the software (QNX) to engineers in India and elsewhere in the hope that it will become a standard. 

 

Blackberry's current market cap is $3.7b, hard to fathom. Is there speculation they might be acquired? As a long-suffering Fairfax shareholder, I can only dream...

[dartmonkey]

I hate to bring up this painful subject, but...

 

What the hell is happening at Blackberry?

 

Recap from last year's AR:

 

We got our money back on our convertible ($167 million in 2020, $183 million in 2023 and $150 million in 2024) plus cumulative interest income of approximately $200 million. Our common stock position as of 2023 ($162 million or 8% of the company) which was acquired at a cost of $17.16 per share was valued on our balance sheet at $3.54 per share. Another horrendous investment by your Chairman.

 

At $3.54 at the end of 2023, this would mean they owned 45.8m shares, which is what they reported on p.15 of the report. Dataroma says they have 46.7m, maybe because Watsa owns some personally, but let's take that 45.8m, assuming they have neither bought nor sold any shares. A year later, the share price was much the same, $3.68, after trading as low as $2.01 during the year 2024. But in the last 6 weeks, the price has soared, to $6.20 right now, or up 68% year to date, in a flat market. Ok, that's only a gain of $115m, which is small fry for Fairfax nowadays, but still, it's something.

 

And I can't see any news that would justify this: Blackberry just sold off their cybersecurity business (Cylance) at a huge loss, and are focusing on Internet of Things (IoT), whose revenues are growing a bit (13% last year, to all of $62m...), and now they are trying to give away the software (QNX) to engineers in India and elsewhere in the hope that it will become a standard. 

 

Blackberry's current market cap is $3.7b, hard to fathom. Is there speculation they might be acquired? As a long-suffering Fairfax shareholder, I can only dream...

[TwoCitiesCapital]

54 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

I hate to bring up this painful subject, but...

 

What the hell is happening at Blackberry?

 

Recap from last year's AR:

 

We got our money back on our convertible ($167 million in 2020, $183 million in 2023 and $150 million in 2024) plus cumulative interest income of approximately $200 million. Our common stock position as of 2023 ($162 million or 8% of the company) which was acquired at a cost of $17.16 per share was valued on our balance sheet at $3.54 per share. Another horrendous investment by your Chairman.

 

At $3.54 at the end of 2023, this would mean they owned 45.8m shares, which is what they reported on p.15 of the report. Dataroma says they have 46.7m, maybe because Watsa owns some personally, but let's take that 45.8m, assuming they have neither bought nor sold any shares. A year later, the share price was much the same, $3.68, after trading as low as $2.01 during the year 2024. But in the last 6 weeks, the price has soared, to $6.20 right now, or up 68% year to date, in a flat market. Ok, that's only a gain of $115m, which is small fry for Fairfax nowadays, but still, it's something.

 

And I can't see any news that would justify this: Blackberry just sold off their cybersecurity business (Cylance) at a huge loss, and are focusing on Internet of Things (IoT), whose revenues are growing a bit (13% last year, to all of $62m...), and now they are trying to give away the software (QNX) to engineers in India and elsewhere in the hope that it will become a standard. 

 

Blackberry's current market cap is $3.7b, hard to fathom. Is there speculation they might be acquired? As a long-suffering Fairfax shareholder, I can only dream...

 

I don't know how to value it, but I know back when I was following Blackberry that there was supposedly large value tied up in the patents that they own that they could license or sell. 

 

The market cap might be more reflecting the value of a competitor acquiring the patent portfolio versus anything the operating businesses are doing. 

 

I had hoped Fairfax would exit in the euphoria of 2021 that took this over $10/share. Hoping again they sell now just to get the money invested productively. But I tend to agree that it is rounding error for their overall portfolio at this point and have largely stopped following/caring about the position as a result.